2014 North Atlantic Hurricane season is here!

[SeGaBob]

Just 2 hours 57 minutes away until the start. 4 hours 57 minutes until the first outlook.

[hurricanes1234]

Less than 1 hour according to Atlantic Standard Time. It's 11:06 PM.

[Cyclenall]

8 more days! Since this season's probably going to be inactive, I don't know if we should be excited or not. Well, the start is approaching fast!

I think we all know the answer to this question, and what I think .

Even the slowest years can produce bad storms though. But this does look like a year we will be asleep for most of the time (at least in the Atlantic - Pacific is a different story).

There was a comment eariler here about not sleeping through this season...that is exactly what I'll be doing and then some. I wish I could have told myself to do that on May 31, 2013 . Bad storms can't exist if the SST's are 3ºF below normal, and instability nonexistent so that's off the table .

Just 45 minutes away until what could possibly be the lamest and most quiet Atlantic hurricane season in our lives, arrives.

[cycloneye]

Is here!.Let's see what the season will bring. Be prepared for anything no matter how active or not the season unfolds as it only takes one to do all the harm.

[psyclone]

8 more days! Since this season's probably going to be inactive, I don't know if we should be excited or not. Well, the start is approaching fast!

I think we all know the answer to this question, and what I think .

Even the slowest years can produce bad storms though. But this does look like a year we will be asleep for most of the time (at least in the Atlantic - Pacific is a different story).

There was a comment eariler here about not sleeping through this season...that is exactly what I'll be doing and then some. I wish I could have told myself to do that on May 31, 2013 . Bad storms can't exist if the SST's are 3ºF below normal, and instability nonexistent so that's off the table .

Just 45 minutes away until what could possibly be the lamest and most quiet Atlantic hurricane season in our lives, arrives.

I think you're being overly pessimistic but I like someone outflanking our usual bear. I expect some action although most will probably be lame with a couple names shot on subtropicals

[brunota2003]

The season has been active for over an hour already, and nothing yet? Good grief, if this keeps up, we may end the season with 0/0/0! Season cancel!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche
extends northeastward into the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Although shower activity is currently disorganized, some slow
development of this nearly stationary disturbance will be possible
over the next several days as environmental conditions become
marginally conducive.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.

The list of names for 2014 is as follows:

Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Arthur AR-thur Laura LOOR-ruh
Bertha BUR-thuh Marco MAR-koe
Cristoabl krees-TOH-bahl Nana NA-na
Dolly DAH-lee Omar OH-mar
Edouard eh-DWARD Paulette pawl-LET
Fay fay Rene re-NAY
Gonzalo gohn-SAH-loh Sally SAL-ee
Hanna HAN-uh Teddy TEHD-ee
Isaias ees-ah-EE-ahs Vicky VIH-kee
Josephine JOH-seh-feen Wilfred WILL-fred
Kyle KY-ull

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT. After
the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are
1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled
issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical
Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS
headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the Tropical Cyclone
Public Advisory, the Forecast/Advisory, the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion, and the Wind Speed Probabilities, is issued every six
hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a Special
Advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of
significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings.

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package. The Tropical
Cyclone Update is also used to provide a continuous flow of
information regarding the center location of a tropical cyclone
when watches or warnings are in effect and the center can be easily
tracked with land-based radar. Tropical Cyclone Updates,
which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header
WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.

All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov. You can also
interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.
Notifications are available via Twitter when select National
Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our
Atlantic Twitter feed is available at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[WeatherGuesser]

How 'bout we take another shot at the latest first H1, OK?

Missed it by what ... a few hours last year?

[galaxy401]

In before the season cancel threads begin.

[CrazyC83]

At least if we have Season Cancel posts no one will be surprised. Good consensus that 2014 will be slow, but even those years can have their moments.

Then again, the Pacific will be worth watching...and yes, there is land out there, such as west coast Mexico, Hawaii and...maybe...California???

[KatDaddy]

1983 Alicia and 1992 Andrew were El Nino years. The concern this year looks to be homebrew. Regardless of an active or non-active Hurricane Season, it only takes one and complacency grows quickly each year you do not have tropical cyclone threat in your area. We are going on 6 years since IKE.

[Yellow Evan]

1983 Alicia and 1992 Andrew were El Nino years. The concern this year looks to be homebrew. Regardless of an active or non-active Hurricane Season, it only takes one and complacency grows quickly each year you do not have tropical cyclone threat in your area. We are going on 6 years since IKE.

The El Nino of 1991-92 had dissipated by the time Andrew rolled around. 1992 isn't technically an El Nino year.

[Ntxw]

1983 Alicia and 1992 Andrew were El Nino years. The concern this year looks to be homebrew. Regardless of an active or non-active Hurricane Season, it only takes one and complacency grows quickly each year you do not have tropical cyclone threat in your area. We are going on 6 years since IKE.

1983 was going into La Nina declared late fall (Nino was 1982) and 1992 was officially neutral (1991 was the Nino)

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

1983 Alicia and 1992 Andrew were El Nino years. The concern this year looks to be homebrew. Regardless of an active or non-active Hurricane Season, it only takes one and complacency grows quickly each year you do not have tropical cyclone threat in your area. We are going on 6 years since IKE.

1983 was going into La Nina declared late fall (Nino was 1982) and 1992 was officially neutral (1991 was the Nino)

In 1991 we still had Hurricane Bob and the "Perfect Storm/Halloween Storm" impact parts of the the Eastern Seaboard. Just because it likely will be an El Nino year doesn't mean one shouldn't let their guard down.

[Ntxw]

1983 Alicia and 1992 Andrew were El Nino years. The concern this year looks to be homebrew. Regardless of an active or non-active Hurricane Season, it only takes one and complacency grows quickly each year you do not have tropical cyclone threat in your area. We are going on 6 years since IKE.

1983 was going into La Nina declared late fall (Nino was 1982) and 1992 was officially neutral (1991 was the Nino)

In 1991 we still had Hurricane Bob and the "Perfect Storm/Halloween Storm" impact parts of the the Eastern Seaboard. Just because it likely will be an El Nino year doesn't mean one shouldn't let their guard down.

Certainly. Only one, any year. It's been said over and over every other post. I don't think anyone is suggesting to let your guard down, this should be common sense to all who live in harms way. It's more than ENSO that decides the season it is a guide/tool and not gospel, as Katdaddy's two mentioned systems occurred in quiet seasons but were not El Nino years.

[weathernerdguy]

my birthday is the 50th day before the North Alantic Hurricane Season starts.

[Cyclenall]

Here is a screenshot of the users online right during the opening of the Atlantic Hurricane Season at midnight:



Yikes! That is how many members would typically be online near midnight in the middle of winter around 2006-2007. To my recollection, during other seasons last decade there would be 5-6 lines of S2K members around midnight at opening. Chat room was extremely quiet too, not even close to past seasons. Shows the level of excitement around this Atlantic season is more than just talk or lack of.

[HurricaneRyan]

Arthur kicked this season off with an exciting start

[gatorcane]

The Atlantic hurricane season may have started Jun 1st, but you can see from the below much of the activity typically occurs between August and October, with activity typically ramping up starting around the beginning of August, which is in 8 days from now. Yellow line is where we are at now.