How strong the 2014 El Nino will be at peak?

[euro6208]

You'll have high risk of Haiyan-like storms at alarming frequencies in the WPAC with a super El Nino...no one wins, ever.

Scary to think...

While the ATL (low number of storms but only takes one) and EPAC (Possible above average season but fishes) rejoices due to el nino showing himself, WPAC nations at risk for super storms. folks this is an area about 7-8 times (calculating using my head but could be higher) the population of the gulf and east coast.

truly a disaster in the making...

[mrbagyo]

I just noticed that most of the intense typhoons during El Niño season tend to move away from land, most of them do a classic recurvature.
During the 1997 season, I think Typhoon Ivan was the only storm to make landfall in the Philippines - and it was on the northeastern tip of Luzon..

[dexterlabio]

I just noticed that most of the intense typhoons during El Niño season tend to move away from land, most of them do a classic recurvature.
During the 1997 season, I think Typhoon Ivan was the only storm to make landfall in the Philippines - and it was on the northeastern tip of Luzon..

That's one characteristic of a classic El Niño, the west pacific high is weaker and mid-latitude troughs tend to be stronger...increasing the probability of recurve of far-fetched typhoons. Though some of the typhoons forming in west central Pacific (near 170E longitude) pose risk of direct hit to Japan.


However, most El Nino years after 1997 didn't exhibit this characteristic. 2004, 2006 and 2009 featured several hits in SE Asia and Taiwan.

[euro6208]

I just noticed that most of the intense typhoons during El Niño season tend to move away from land, most of them do a classic recurvature.
During the 1997 season, I think Typhoon Ivan was the only storm to make landfall in the Philippines - and it was on the northeastern tip of Luzon..

That's one characteristic of a classic El Niño, the west pacific high is weaker and mid-latitude troughs tend to be stronger...increasing the probability of recurve of far-fetched typhoons. Though some of the typhoons forming in west central Pacific (near 170E longitude) pose risk of direct hit to Japan.


However, most El Nino years after 1997 didn't exhibit this characteristic. 2004, 2006 and 2009 featured several hits in SE Asia and Taiwan.

yup most of them coming out from the EL NINO box (160E to the dateline and 0N to 20N) and looks like this elnino will be another traditional. Look for them to start in this box....

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

+2.0C, maybe even higher

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

1.7

[CFLHurricane]

I'm no meteorologist, but 1.2 seems a reasonable enough climb to me.

[Yellow Evan]

Why aren't some people not predicting a super El Nino? I'm curious, because aside from TA, no one has provided any major reason.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I will raise my forecast to 2.5C and above [3.0C] if the SURFACE warms to 0.5C at Nino 3 BEFORE APRIL 10th.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'm no meteorologist, but 1.2 seems a reasonable enough climb to me.

Honestly, IMO, that is too low. Our Pacific sea surface temperatures are even stronger than that of March 1997. Also, the subsurface warm pool is FAR AHEAD of intensity than the strongest El Nino. But, I still respect your opinion and could still be quite reasonable.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

More than 50% voted for an El Nino above +2.0C.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nino 3.4 is currently at +0.47C which rounded off into is +0.5C. Nino 4 is +0.8C. I'd change my vote to make it +2.8C.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I went with 1.4C. This might be a little conservative.

I don't see us exceeding the 1997-98 El Nino quite yet. Remember, the developing El Nino then was really helped by a huge WWB generated by Typhoon Isa in April. We'll have to see how active the WPAC gets this spring.

I think you may now change your vote. We are expecting a typhoon on 8th April. We've finally reached our +0.5C anomalies!

[dhweather]

My gut was telling me to go with 1.8, but I took a chance and went to 2.0 , I think it will be a strong one.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Still confident with over +2.5 as some +3C temps in the subsurface finally reaches the surface by December according to CFSv2.

[Ntxw]

I may have been too conservative with 1.9C considering the odds at the time. But its looking more likely the coming Nino may at the very least match 72 and 82. If it warms up quickly the next 2 months 97 is not off the table, we are overdue for a big El Nino.

[CaliforniaResident]

I initially voted 2.5+ but I'm going to change it to around 1.0 because of the quick and sudden changes over the past day or two.

[Frank2]

What changes made you change you mind - I haven't heard anything on TWC about any significant events affecting the outcome. Most including NOAA are forecasting El Nino conditions sometime in the coming months...

Frank

[Siker]

I initially voted 2.5+ but I'm going to change it to around 1.0 because of the quick and sudden changes over the past day or two.

Woah, that is a very significant adjustment considering the changes. I don't think the sudden lack of an MJO in the near future is going to have THAT much of an impact in the long term, I'm sticking with 2.1.

[Frank2]

Thanks for the update - what you said makes sense, and from what I've been told the MJO issue has nothing to do with the El Nino event, because from what I'm told one is atmospheric and one is oceanic...