possibility of GOM action later in week? (is INVEST 98L)

[NDG]

NDG, are you referring to the little "blow up" in the link I posted above, off the Florida Peninsula?

Somewhat, there's trough of low pressure from the central gulf coast east towards central FL with an elongated vorticity at h85, it would need to consolidate quickly for it to do anything, it only has about 3-4 days over water before moving inland over TX.

That's plenty enough time over the steam bath GOM.

Not just very waters but it will also have very good upper level conditions, if the dry air behind the back door cold front gets in it.

[TexWx]

Watch it head towards N. Mexico and be dry as a bone here.

[NDG]

Watch it head towards N. Mexico and be dry as a bone here.

GFS has been very persistent in bringing some good moisture to TX/LA by Wed-Friday timeframe.

[T-man]

I think this will get interesting if it can move deeper into the GOM. Our friends west of here could use some rain.

[Steve]

Best I can tell from the GFS and the simulated radar run off of the North American Model is that something swings behind the east side of the back-door front's trough as it splits off or fills in. It doesn't appear to be the blowup off the MS Coast this morning (which is in front of the trough).

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville early morning discussion..

THUS...TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL REFLECT A BIT OF A CHANGE...WITH
OVERALL MOISTURE SEEING AN UPWARD TREND. NOT ONLY WILL THE UPPER
WEAKNESS BE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH LESS LOCAL INFLUENCE BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST...BUT A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK TO LATE WEEK IN ADVANCE
OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BOTH OVER THE GULF AND
OVER LAND AREAS AS THE MINOR WEAKNESS ALOFT LIES OVERHEAD. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SET UP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA OVER THE
GULF. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
AROUND THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE IN
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PLAINS SCENARIO THIS MORNING. THE
GFS SEEMS A LITTLE DEEPER/FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL EFFECT ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL NOT
BE THAT GREAT AS A RESULT OF THE DIFFERENCE...AND THUS HAD AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE OR BETTER IN USING A BLEND OF BOTH MODELS WHICH REFLECTED
SIMILAR WEATHER ELEMENTS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 103 TO 108 RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. PWAT WILL BE ELEVATED AND
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DAILY SEA BREEZE ON WHAT WILL BE LIGHT TO MDT
WINDS. AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN WITH SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE. GFS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS IT OUT AND
GOES FOR A CHANCE TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A FEW DAYS OF INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN APPEAR TO BE ON THE WAY.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Let's hope we don't see anything try to form in the Gulf over the next few days--the upper-level pattern is about as favorable as it gets.

[TexWx]

Interesting couple of days ahead for sure.

[Stormcenter]

Hints of spin maybe?

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/radar?rada ... &img=5&c=y

[cigtyme]

Hints of spin maybe?

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/radar?rada ... &img=5&c=y

thats right in my backyard

[Tireman4]

Bear Watch I would think......(or is that for Winter...? LOL)

[tropicwatch]

Vorticity has increased a little this morning in the gulf.

[artist]

Bear Watch I would think......(or is that for Winter...? LOL)

[TheStormExpert]

Does anyone think the NHC will mention this in their 2pm TWO?

[South Texas Storms]

So far only the NAM and CMC are showing development from this area of disturbed weather. Not exactly stellar model support, but systems can spin up quickly in the warm Gulf waters during this time of the year.

[cycloneye]

Ths is the 12z GFS that shows a weak low.

[TexWx]

Bring that up a little more to the North, GFS.

[cycloneye]

Bring that up a little more to the North, GFS.

It moves inland just south of Corpus Christi.

[Kludge]

Bring that up a little more to the North, GFS.

It moves inland just south of Corpus Christi.

That would beat the heck out of moving inland just east of Beaumont, if we're hoping for rain in SE Texas.

[TexWx]

Oh, Kludge - I agree.

I was thinking more of the Corpus to Surfside area.