2015 CPAC Season
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15451
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15956
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re:
Kingarabian wrote:Euro has CPAC-WPAC basin crosser. Really intensifies it:
Looks like we can get some nice ACE if it bombs out early.
Can't wait to see these twin long tracker sailing across the Pacific.
ECMWF looks very confident about the CPAC activity, we'll see.
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15451
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2015 CPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote:
Uh oh. 0z GFS.
So far the models seem to be shifting more and more East.
All about timing.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15956
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: 2015 CPAC Season
The 12Z GFS raises an eyebrow during my upcoming vacation to Oahu.
0 likes
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
12z GFS shows a Cat.1 hurricane heading NE towards Hawaii near Honolulu from the SW.
Hr.168
Hr.174
Hr.186
Hr.168
Hr.174
Hr.186
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15451
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
2009 Hurricane Neki thread. This storm was originally shown by the GFS to do a similar N/NE turn as it is showing now. Fortunately, extra ridging moved it further west, enough to miss Hawaii when it turned north.
viewtopic.php?f=71&t=106869&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
viewtopic.php?f=71&t=106869&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15451
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15956
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15451
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Good news here is the 12z ECMWF keeps this way south.
I agree. Still a long way out. We'll see who gives in to who.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15451
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
00z GFS develops it much quicker than its previous runs. Trough catches it early and sends it into the big island.
The latest track philosophy seems to be (for the GFS that is) is how quick it develops. The sooner it develops the likely it gets picked up earlier and misses Hawaii. Also if it develops too late, the trough will pick it up but then the ridge builds in time to push it away from Hawaii.
The latest track philosophy seems to be (for the GFS that is) is how quick it develops. The sooner it develops the likely it gets picked up earlier and misses Hawaii. Also if it develops too late, the trough will pick it up but then the ridge builds in time to push it away from Hawaii.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15956
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15451
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15451
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15956
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15451
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Slightly more east, but also a little weaker.
Given the time of year, I'd think the ECMWF situation is more likely.
192 hrs 12z
192 hrs 00z
240 hrs 12z
240 hrs 00z
I think through the 240 hours, the track shift is considerable.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15451
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON AUG 17 2015
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remain disorganized. Environmental conditions will support some gradual development and organization over the next couple of days as the low remains nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON AUG 17 2015
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remain disorganized. Environmental conditions will support some gradual development and organization over the next couple of days as the low remains nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: duilaslol and 43 guests