Posible development in BOC? (Is Invest 94L)

[Blown Away]

Arguably the most favorable place for tropical development in the Atlantic Basin in recent years...

[tailgater]

It's getting really juicy down there but not much spin. the Gulf of Honduras might get it started and the BOC could/would crank it up if it's not pushed too far south by the high pressure to the north.



Nice MLC blowing up in the NW Caribbean

[tropicwatch]

Plus decent flare up of convection this morning.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Spin near the convection seems to be going more NW than WNW. Must be the MLC and it is going toward the tip of the Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

Not too bad looking in Gulf of Honduras.The key for this to have a chance to develop in BOC is to emerge from Yucatan north of 19N.If it does south of that latitude is toast.



This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Nimbus]

WXman57 said yesterday there might be more northerly steering *after* most of the energy is inland over Mexico.
A delay or slowdown in forward speed might allow time for that steering to migrate further east over the BOC.
So we keep watching the models for any clue that is happening..

[Javlin]

Definitely does look like there is rotation at the mid-levels in the Yucatan Strait.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over Honduras, Nicaragua, and the adjacent
waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a broad area
of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorm activity.
Although thunderstorm activity has increased somewhat over the
northwestern Caribbean today, there is no evidence of a surface
circulation in the area. Development, if any, of this disturbance
should be slow to occur due to interaction with land while the
system moves west-northwestward around 10 mph toward the Bay of
Campeche over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF ensembles tick a little bit up the chances for something to develop at BOC.From 20%-30% goes to 50%-60%.

[TexasF6]

Nice circulation but north of where EURO says it wll develop....







Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

[tropicwatch]

Here is a zoomed in loop of the area. Possible mid level circulation between the two large area's of convection.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=18.5&lon=-85.5&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over Honduras, Nicaragua, and the adjacent
waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a broad area
of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorm activity. Associated
thunderstorm activity has changed little today and there is no
evidence of a surface circulation. Development, if any, of this
disturbance should be slow to occur due to interaction with land
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph toward the
Bay of Campeche over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[northjaxpro]

I am thinking that with High Pressure forecast to build down the Eastern U.S. seaboard the next several days, it may build in stronger and suppress this feature farther south. It is very possible that this may only barely emerge into the BOC, or may not get there at all. It could get buried into Central America or into Mexico.

I would give this right now no more than 20% chance of developing.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located near the Yucatan Peninsula is producing
disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea through southeastern Mexico. Development, if any, of
this disturbance should be slow to occur due to proximity to land
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the Bay of
Campeche and southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[weathaguyry]

Looking pretty sloppy this morning, I'm surprised the NHC didn't lower their chances for development...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms have decreased in
association with a tropical wave near the Yucatan peninsula of
Mexico. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to
occur due to proximity to land while it moves westward or west-
northwestward at about 10 mph over the Bay of Campeche and
southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Nimbus]

Still just a broad wave with some outflow boundaries coming off the resent thunderheads just east of the axis.
I was going to guess it would be positioned north of Quintana Roo tonight if it had a closed circulation before first landfall.

[NDG]

Noticeable sharp trough, IMO, as it tracks across the Yucatan P this afternoon. It will be interesting once it emerges into the BOC over the weekend. But not much support any more from the lately over aggressive Euro

[Nimbus]

Surface winds shifted from E to SE about 4 hours ago in Belize city but there does seem to be some mid level vorticity in the area just off the coast.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is producing disorganized thunderstorms and
cloudiness over the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, Belize, northern
Guatemala, and adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Any development of this disturbance should be slow to occur due to
proximity to land and only marginally conducive upper-level winds.
The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at
about 10 mph during the next few days, and emerge over the Bay of
Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low... 30 percent
$$
Forecaster Stewart