Possible development in Western Caribbean - (Is INVEST 93L)

[Alyono]

Probably due to sheer size and time.

it has a full 2 days. Plenty of time

Alyono are you saying this could become a hurricane?

it cannot be ruled out

[Kingarabian]

it has a full 2 days. Plenty of time

Alyono are you saying this could become a hurricane?

it cannot be ruled out

Yeah, EPS just finished running and some members do have this as a Cat. 1 hurricane making landfall over Mexico.

[Alyono]

80-90 percent chance of development according to the EC enemble

[Stormcenter]

Right now how fast this develops will be the key to whether or not whatever develops affects the U.S. IMO

[South Texas Storms]

Alyono are you saying this could become a hurricane?

it cannot be ruled out

Yeah, EPS just finished running and some members do have this as a Cat. 1 hurricane making landfall over Mexico.

Yeah and several members still show it moving into TX. Can't rule out that scenario either.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/874738617591226368

[Cpv17]

I'm no expert, but I'm pretty sure the stronger it is, the better chance it has moving more poleward depending on where exactly the ridge is at. A weaker storm will probably stay in the far southern BOC and crash into Mexico. The stronger the storm is, the more likely it is to feel the effects of the upper air pattern?

[PTrackerLA]

Can't rule out Texas impacts but it looks like the ridging will be too strong to allow this to come to the northern Gulf coast like runs were showing a few days ago.

[KatDaddy]

The Houston-Galveston, Corpus Christi, and Brownsville NWS summarize this area in their afternoon AFDs.

Houston-Galveston NWS

An area of disturbed weather approaching the Yucatan will emerge
into the southern Gulf early next week. As this wave moves west
into Mexico, it might bring a surge of deeper moisture into Texas
with a chance of showers returning next Monday or Tuesday.

Corpus Christi NWS:

NHC is outlooking an area of disturbed weather that has a low chance
of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next five days. That
area obviously bears watching but as of now is no threat to Texas.

Brownsville NWS:

Under scrutiny will be a tropical wave moving west from the Western
Caribbean Sea on Sunday to over the Yucatan Peninsula and then into
the Southwest Gulf on Monday. This development is seen quite well in
the ECMWF model, for example. A weak, broad surface low will then
develop over the Southwest Gulf on Tuesday, possibly causing winds
to back to east or northeast over the Northwest Gulf if any kind of
circulation is able to develop. The surface low should continue
moving west to the Mexican Coast and then inland, resulting in
enhanced rain chances for the County Warning Area, on the northern
periphery of the low`s influence, heading into the middle of next
week.

[tailgater]

Latest GFS run has it slowly developing and heads north in western GOM but pulls up short of Hou/Gal area then retreats SWard Looks like a bad run IMHO.

[Cpv17]

I don't think we'll know where this storm will go anytime soon. Maybe if it develops into something we'll have a better idea. Possibly this weekend. I still believe anywhere from Louisiana to Mexico should keep an eye on it.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas by the weekend.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while
it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[tarheelprogrammer]

Good news so far is most of the GFS ensemble members keep this system weak. I am not sure why, because the set up seems pretty solid. However, it is June so there is that. It is rare to get a hurricane in June I do believe.

[cycloneye]

The 18z GFS Paralell has a 997 mb strong Tropical Storm going to Mexico.

[NDG]

All I know is that the very wet pattern across FL is going to continue through at least early next week thanks to the UL trough across the eastern US that will pull some of this possible system's moisture into the State.

[Kingarabian]

Same subsidence that limited Beatriz and Calvin in the EPAC seems to have spilled over into the GOM.

[TexWx]

The 18z GFS Paralell has a 997 mb strong Tropical Storm going to Mexico.

I'm thinking this, just like the last few years at this time.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS is very slow on the evolution of system as it interacts with land and it takes to almost 200 hours to be in BOC developing slowly.

[Kingarabian]

12Z Euro Parallel down to 998mb. Makes landfall further south, southern Mexico (as a weaker storm).

[Steve]

And the CMC pulls it due north toward Cape San Blas and Apalachicola as a formidable system. It's been consistent but it's seems that the difference is that the front/weakness draws it up unlike EC and GFS which propagate across the Yucatán and into the BOC.