Tropical Wave WSW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 94L)

[Gustywind]

Look at that...

WEATHER WATCH: 10th Storm/Hurricane Jose to Form Behind Hurricane Irma?
01 Sep 2017 |
Published in Soualiga News II |

http://www.soualiganewsday.com/soualiga ... -irma.html

SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN – The 10th named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to form over the weekend behind Hurricane Irma according to the GFS long-term forecast weather model. Currently the National Hurricane Center (NHC) out of Miami is monitoring a Tropical Wave (TW) that emerged off continental Africa on Thursday which may become the 10th named storm.

The TW will move towards the islands of the Eastern Caribbean next week following a similar track according to the GFS forecast model bringing this system near the Leeward Islands over the weekend of Saturday, September 9th.

[color=#0040FF]This forecast is not set in stone, as the system at this point in time is still a TW. On Thursday, the NHC gave the TW a 40 per cent chance for development over the next five days.

It is another system that has to be watched over the coming week.
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SOUALIGA NEWSDAY REPORT

[HurricaneBelle]

12Z GFS loses this in the central Atlantic, you can track the vorticity to the NE islands before it washes out in Irma's wake.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development in a few days, and this system could become a tropical
depression early next week while it moves westward at 15 mph over
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[stormzilla]

Another powerful wave inland with healthy spin..http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=anigf

[cycloneye]

00z GFS has a slow moving Tropical Storm Jose in the Eastern Caribbean where it moves over Puerto Rico and then goes to the Atlantic to move close to Bahamas.Wont post more as it is long range.After this position,it moves NE away from east coast of U.S.

.

[cycloneye]

2 AM TWO:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development in a couple of days, and this system could
become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward
at 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development in a couple of days, and this system could
become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS once again delays development until just south of Puerto Rico and takes a track across all the Greater Antille islands and into the SE Gulf.

[cycloneye]

Is long range but this is where Jose ends.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO up to 70% in 5 days.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development in a couple of days, and this system could
become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Hammy]

Euro appears to have dropped entirely.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

12z GFS once again delays development until just south of Puerto Rico and takes a track across all the Greater Antille islands and into the SE Gulf.

I think that this wave will develop just east of Leeward Islands just as Euro did then... take a track like Ivan did, but with some latitude. My gut feelings have this as a strong hurricane whatever it is.

[bob rulz]

Not to discount the threat of Irma, but this waves makes me more nervous. It's at lower latitude and has favorable conditions closer to the Lesser Antilles, in September, in a year where overall conditions seem to be quite good.

[cajungal]

I think the GFS had future Jose getting in the gulf. It is,so far out though that I don't put any stock in it. May not even develop.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Euro appears to have dropped entirely.

EURO likes to drop everything when it's about to develop. I am wondering why Euro likes to do that...

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more favorable for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the
disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[MetroMike]

8 PM TWO:

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more favorable for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the
disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Makes me wonder why it's at 70% for next five days and not an invest yet.

[Hammy]

8 PM TWO:

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more favorable for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the
disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Makes me wonder why it's at 70% for next five days and not an invest yet.

They'll probably make it one once the 48 hour chances start going up.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms that are currently displaced well to the west of the
wave axis. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form by the end of the week while the system moves westward
to west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.