Western Caribbean Area of Interest: (Is INVEST 90L)

[toad strangler]

Possible Andrea 2013 analog here .....

[LarryWx]

History since 1851 of W Caribbean/GOM geneses during 5/21-31: 5 trop. storms but no hurricanes

1) 5/30/2008's TS Arthur: strongest 40 knots/1004 mb when it hit Belize 5/31
2) 5/28/1959's TS Arlene: strongest 50 knots/1000 mb when 100 miles S of LA 5/30; hit LA 5/30 with 40 knot max; the only GOM genesis of these 5
3) 5/25/1953's TS Alice: hit W Cuba 5/31 with 50 knot max; strongest 60 knots/997 mb when in NE GOM 6/5; hit FL panhandle 6/6 with 40 knot max
4) 5/27/1890's TS #1: strongest 50 knots in SE Gulf on 5/29; falls aparts in open SE Gulf
5) 5/29/1865's TS #1: strongest 50 knots in SW Caribbean, the only position recorded

In summary, the highest recorded wind max on land of these was a 50 knot hit on W Cuba. The highest on the US/Belize was 40 knots. The highest in any point of the track of these 5 was 60 knots (high end TS). Based on this, IF there is going to be a TC hit anywhere on land, I have to favor no stronger than a TS.

[LarryWx]

# of W Caribbean/GOM geneses since 1851

May 1-10: 2
May 11-20: 4
May 21-31: 5
June 1-10: 16
june 11-20: 26

[NotSparta]

EC does not exactly look all that tropical

I am actually skeptical about development. The EPS shows a significant anticyclonic wave-breaking event over the eastern U.S. in a week and substantial influence from the subtropical jet, which would tend to strongly shear out vorticity. That kind of pattern might be too unfavourable even for a subtropical/hybrid mess to develop, as there will be dry, continental air wrapping into the circulation, owing to the likelihood of a backdoor surface cold front stalling over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. On the run, you can see very weak to nonexistent northerlies on the west side of the ostensible system, suggesting that a closed low might not even be present. Instead of development, I am leaning toward a strung-out series of vorticity lobes ahead of a cold front, possibly inducing locally heavy rainfall over Cuba and the Bahamas, but perhaps passing far enough to the east that the heaviest rainfall stays to the east of mainland South Florida and/or most of the Keys.

Doesn't that pull the SJ north (as I've been hearing), which would allow it to develop?

[gatorcane]

Does anybody have a plot of the ECMWF ensembles?

[wxman57]

Does anybody have a plot of the ECMWF ensembles?

Yes, I do. It's not legal for me to post it here, though. I can tell you that the members are spread between the mouth of the Mississippi and the southern tip of Florida. Mean is near or a little south of Tampa.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Hey Gator been a while, your comparison between the GFS and the Euro run with one showing a weaker system, may be form land interaction with Cuba compared to the other being slightly east. Either way if anything gets going we will be back in the soup.

[TheProfessor]

I don't like the east shift on the Euro. There are still a few good Euro ensembles for me in Jamaica but there some really bad ones too. 1.5-4" seems prevalent on the ensembles while I'm in Jamaica which would be a downer.

[gatorcane]

History since 1851 of W Caribbean/GOM geneses during 5/21-31: 5 trop. storms but no hurricanes

1) 5/30/2008's TS Arthur: strongest 40 knots/1004 mb when it hit Belize 5/31
2) 5/28/1959's TS Arlene: strongest 50 knots/1000 mb when 100 miles S of LA 5/30; hit LA 5/30 with 40 knot max; the only GOM genesis of these 5
3) 5/25/1953's TS Alice: hit W Cuba 5/31 with 50 knot max; strongest 60 knots/997 mb when in NE GOM 6/5; hit FL panhandle 6/6 with 40 knot max
4) 5/27/1890's TS #1: strongest 50 knots in SE Gulf on 5/29; falls aparts in open SE Gulf
5) 5/29/1865's TS #1: strongest 50 knots in SW Caribbean, the only position recorded

In summary, the highest recorded wind max on land of these was a 50 knot hit on W Cuba. The highest on the US/Belize was 40 knots. The highest in any point of the track of these 5 was 60 knots (high end TS). Based on this, IF there is going to be a TC hit anywhere on land, I have to favor no stronger than a TS.

So are you suggesting that the 06Z FV3 GFS 941MB Hurricane off of the LA coast at 312 hours is just a tiny bit off?

Thanks for those stats, best bet if there is any development at all would be something sheared or even subtropical so not a wind issue but more of a rain/flooding issue.

[Javlin]

Let's open a thread for the area that the increasing consensus among the models show developing.There is convection in the SW Caribbean at this time so let's post away.

Luis and NDG were are you guys uploading your satellites views from?I do not like the new format the NHC is using and NDG I went to MSFC but none look like yours CONUS and Full Disk?

[TheAustinMan]

Let's open a thread for the area that the increasing consensus among the models show developing.There is convection in the SW Caribbean at this time so let's post away.

Luis and NDG were are you guys uploading your satellites views from?I do not like the new format the NHC is using and NDG I went to MSFC but none look like yours CONUS and Full Disk?

RAMSDIS provides some floaters of the type you're looking for. Here's a link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/997244109764091905

[drezee]

The system will have a tough time bundling energy on the way north. The European solution basically shows that until around Jax. At that point, the physics used frictional effects to tighten the center. It could just as easily be on west coast of Florida. FL get ready for a ton of rain...

[Dylan]

The European ensembles are lighting up like a Christmas tree with this potential system. Still a long way out, but we’ve seen this movie before. Definitely has my attention, along with others.

[Dylan]

The European ensembles are lighting up like a Christmas tree with this potential system. Still a long way out, but we’ve seen this movie before. Definitely has my attention, along with others.

I’d also like to mention that I wouldn’t take the doomsday models seriously. It’s mid-May. Conditions will be marginal at best in the Gulf, and that might be a generous word to use based on ensemble solutions. If anything comes out of this, expect your typical early season tropical storm. Not a Category 3, that’s ludicrous based on the current and forecasted conditions.

[CyclonicFury]

The European ensembles are lighting up like a Christmas tree with this potential system. Still a long way out, but we’ve seen this movie before. Definitely has my attention, along with others.

I’d also like to mention that I wouldn’t take the doomsday models seriously. It’s mid-May. Conditions will be marginal at best in the Gulf, and that might be a generous word to use based on ensemble solutions. If anything comes out of this, expect your typical early season tropical storm. Not a Category 3, that’s ludicrous based on the current and forecasted conditions.

Fully agree. If something develops, I expect a sheared TS at most. Wind shear will likely be about 25-30 kt which should prevent significant strengthening if a TC develops.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z GFS is near south florida. Looks sheared perhaps??




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Dylan]

The European ensembles are lighting up like a Christmas tree with this potential system. Still a long way out, but we’ve seen this movie before. Definitely has my attention, along with others.

I’d also like to mention that I wouldn’t take the doomsday models seriously. It’s mid-May. Conditions will be marginal at best in the Gulf, and that might be a generous word to use based on ensemble solutions. If anything comes out of this, expect your typical early season tropical storm. Not a Category 3, that’s ludicrous based on the current and forecasted conditions.

Fully agree. If something develops, I expect a sheared TS at most. Wind shear will likely be about 25-30 kt which should prevent significant strengthening if a TC develops.

The 25 knot westerly shear will help it develop bursts of convection, but will also limit its potential.

[Alyono]

The European ensembles are lighting up like a Christmas tree with this potential system. Still a long way out, but we’ve seen this movie before. Definitely has my attention, along with others.

I’d also like to mention that I wouldn’t take the doomsday models seriously. It’s mid-May. Conditions will be marginal at best in the Gulf, and that might be a generous word to use based on ensemble solutions. If anything comes out of this, expect your typical early season tropical storm. Not a Category 3, that’s ludicrous based on the current and forecasted conditions.

if this were to become a hurricane, it probably would have the best chance to do so east of Florida and the Carolinas. May have more baroclinic forcing there, as well as more divergent flow

[blp]

Navgem too fast and too strong.