Disturbed Weather (now inland over Texas)

[drezee]

Coin flip on whether it can travel WSW over the next 24 hours. It has a chance to track along the trough axis. Agreed that W is the prevailing flow.

[Steve]

There were some very strong storms last night near the LA/MS border. I was driving to the Panhandle, and before I got on the I-10 Twin Spans, there were several Sky to ground/water lightning bolts that would last for a second or so. I caught some heavy rain and then a bit more in Gulfport where I stopped to visit friends. This was mostly to be a rainmaker and knockdown of the heat. Definitely a broad low at the surface, and the QPF 7 day has a pretty wide 2-3” swath into east TX.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530462213

[galvbay]

We will take some rain in the Galveston Bay area.

[wxman57]

Surface low fading away and/or moving inland. Still looks like a rainy 4th of July in SE TX. Perhaps I'll cancel my vacation days for the 5th-6th as we won't be biking downtown for fireworks on the 4th, most likely.

[lrak]

Totally off-topic....I surf in the rain Mr. wxman57

https://www.youtube.com/watch?annotatio ... po_AcVmerA

[Nimbus]

Some cyclonic motion in the low level clouds at sunset along with the banding but proximity to land should limit development.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar looking very interesting... has plenty of time according to models. Nothing crazy.. but worth a watch.

Im finally home after a month of traveling for work..

[northjaxpro]

Weak 1015 mb Low Pressure spinning just offshore Florida panhandle south of Destin per 3Z WPC surface analysis and radar.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Weak 1015 mb Low Pressure spinning just offshore Florida panhandle south of Destin per 3Z WPC surface analysis and radar.

yep it has been slowly taking shape over the last 4 to 5 hours. since we lost the effects of afternoon convection over land. question is. will the broad circ be able to consolidate overnight before afternoon localized pressure falls disrupt any circ that tries to form overnight.

[Clearcloudz]

MCS remnants finally popped in the northern Gulf. Heavy Rains, Squally conditions, as this continues to move westward across LA/TX and the northern Gulf.

Will be interesting to see what happens in terms of how this unfolds.

[wxman57]

Can identify a weak surface low south of Pensacola today. Convection has increased offshore, but tropical development chances remain very low.

[Emmett_Brown]

The GOM in July is often favored area for this type of home brew. Interesting!

[MississippiWx]

Can identify a weak surface low south of Pensacola today. Convection has increased offshore, but tropical development chances remain very low.

This area reminds me of the infamous no-name storm a couple of years ago that brought devastating flooding to South Louisiana. The difference here is this one will be moving quickly whereas that one stalled. Looks pretty good this morning on satellite. If it had more time over water, I think it would develop into a depression at least.

[Stormcenter]

This is starting to look somewhat interesting this morning. IMO

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif

[cycloneye]

It has the attention of JB.

@BigJoeBastardi
Good conditions for rapid feedback development northern gulf with feature over water. This has my attention https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/G ... &length=24 …

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1013816129876357120

[Aric Dunn]

Radar, sat and surface obs. showing some indication that a more defined circ is developing farther south. if that is the case it could skirt along the coast of LA and would have a better shot of development.

[cycloneye]

I am going to be bold here and say it will be mentioned in the 2 PM or 8 PM TWO.If I dont have it right that is ok.

[Aric Dunn]

I am going to be bold here and say it will be mentioned in the 2 PM or 8 PM TWO.If I dont have it right that is ok.

Agreed.. but who knows with them anymore..

[MGC]

There is a bit of spin at the mid levels south of Gulf Shores. Lets see what happens.....MGC

[cycloneye]

@BigJoeBastardi
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 1&loop=yes …

mobile radar loop showing some spinning

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1013819923032952832