Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[Aric Dunn]

Good ole GFS lol

[cjrciadt]

Yup the Happy Hour run does not disappoint

[Ubuntwo]

Classic GFS

[gatorcane]

Heading WSW:

[toad strangler]

18z GFS Hello Daytona Beach

[gatorcane]

The GFS basically is leaving the possibility open Florida or EC of US could get hit from the east in October. Wow that would be something.

[BobHarlem]

18Z GFS Flagler/Ormond/Daytona Hit then rides the panhandle along the Gulf coast... Okay.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z NAVGEM




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[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM north towards south Florida:

[Hurricaneman]

What I’m thinking is where the GFS has landfall is actually where it’s going to exit Florida in reality as that path makes the most sense based on the other models but there’s a chance of a hurricane King 1950 type track

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like something is trying to get going east of Costa Rica

[jaxfladude]

Does Florida have worry or just something to watch for? Please say that nothing may come out of this after all.

[stormlover2013]

Good thing navy sucks so all good

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: Yup the Happy Hour run does not disappoint

Yet, the odd thing is that the GEfS has hardly any other member doing anything sig then.

[toad strangler]

:uarrow: Yup the Happy Hour run does not disappoint

Yet, the odd thing is that the GEfS has hardly any other member doing anything sig then.

Almost all members OTS E of FL. Except for one that I can see doing a similar track

[Hurricaneman]

Does Florida have worry or just something to watch for? Please say that nothing may come out of this after all.

Just have to monitor it right now, any formation could be in 3 to 4 days

[Aric Dunn]

Does Florida have worry or just something to watch for? Please say that nothing may come out of this after all.

Just have to monitor it right now, any formation could be in 3 to 4 days

The models have a broad circulation in as little as 36 hours. any actual formation will likely be at least at you said 3 to 4 days. however, once there is this broad rotation and some lowering of pressure the models will have something to latch onto.

so not much longer so see the first signs.

[TheStormExpert]

12z UKMET into NE Belize with little development.

[Aric Dunn]

12z UKMET into NE Belize with little development.

https://i.imgur.com/zMdTM1D.png

The track in this case is more important the strength. Also UKMET has the majority of the energy over land so not surprised nothing comes from it.

[LarryWx]

12z UKMET into NE Belize with little development.

https://i.imgur.com/zMdTM1D.png

Thks. Reminder: Uk has the most consistent left bias of any major model with Florence as well as Jose last year illustrating this quite well.