Long-term Activity Cycle of the WPac

[euro6208]

Well with the 2020 WPAC season nearing its end it is safe to say this year's season is well below average.

Interesting to see since 2010 only 3 years (2012, 2015, 2018) managed to get the average (302 per year) or above-average ACE.

Green= Prior to 2000
Red= 2000 to 2010
Blue= 2011 to current


1971 379.726
1972 413.043
1973 148.09
1974 205.287
1975 170.97
1976 301.265
1977 163.93
1978 236.93
1979 278.36
1980 237.785
1981 227.778
1982 356.105
1983 219.702
1984 274.743
1985 231.445
1986 334.902
1987 356.632
1988 227.94
1989 306.125
1990 382.502
1991 414.502
1992 473.642
1993 271.785
1994 462.75
1995 261.788
1996 425.902
1997 589.095
1998 156.46
1999 109.888
2000 244.412
2001 315.842
2002 390.58
2003 336.86
2004 482.09
2005 309.945
2006 321.735
2007 220.075
2008 179.4
2009 279.22
2010 121.397
2011 190.412
2012 303.315
2013 277.29
2014 278.452
2015 465.56
2016 263.155
2017 170.455
2018 361.365
2019 266.446
2020 128.7

[Hayabusa]

Well with the 2020 WPAC season nearing its end it is safe to say this year's season is well below average.

Interesting to see since 2010 only 3 years (2012, 2015, 2018) managed to get the average (302 per year) or above-average ACE.

The 2010's decade may have lower ACE count but the 2010's decade is home to the strongest typhoons on record (based on JTWC winds) than any decade since the 1970.

And the 2020's decade started with a 170 knots typhoon, could the WPAC finally achieve a greater than 170 knots wind this decade based on satellite alone assuming no recon?

[euro6208]

Well with the 2020 WPAC season nearing its end it is safe to say this year's season is well below average.

Interesting to see since 2010 only 3 years (2012, 2015, 2018) managed to get the average (302 per year) or above-average ACE.

The 2010's decade may have lower ACE count but the 2010's decade is home to the strongest typhoons on record (based on JTWC winds) than any decade since the 1970.

And the 2020's decade started with a 170 knots typhoon, could the WPAC finally achieve a greater than 170 knots wind this decade based on satellite alone assuming no recon?

Strongest typhoons more likely the tools to estimates are getting better.

I don't think we will ever see a typhoon achieve greater than 170 knots with satellite alone. You need recon for that. When was the last time a hurricane in the Atlantic achieve 7.5 dvorak operationally?

I just just wonder why the world's most active and powerful basin continues with no recon and probrably the most populated basin. It truly is a loss in meteorology.

[ElectricStorm]

Well with the 2020 WPAC season nearing its end it is safe to say this year's season is well below average.

Interesting to see since 2010 only 3 years (2012, 2015, 2018) managed to get the average (302 per year) or above-average ACE.

The 2010's decade may have lower ACE count but the 2010's decade is home to the strongest typhoons on record (based on JTWC winds) than any decade since the 1970.

And the 2020's decade started with a 170 knots typhoon, could the WPAC finally achieve a greater than 170 knots wind this decade based on satellite alone assuming no recon?

Strongest typhoons more likely the tools to estimates are getting better.

I don't think we will ever see a typhoon achieve greater than 170 knots with satellite alone. You need recon for that. When was the last time a hurricane in the Atlantic achieve 7.5 dvorak operationally?

I just just wonder why the world's most active and powerful basin continues with no recon and probrably the most populated basin. It truly is a loss in meteorology.

Well the US does all the recon in the Atlantic and occasionally the EPAC. For there to be recon in the WPAC, other countries are going to have to send their own planes into storms near their country. The US could send in some from Guam but they wouldn't be able to sample many storms that peak closer to Asia. So it's going to be pretty difficult to get full recon out there

[aspen]

The 2010's decade may have lower ACE count but the 2010's decade is home to the strongest typhoons on record (based on JTWC winds) than any decade since the 1970.

And the 2020's decade started with a 170 knots typhoon, could the WPAC finally achieve a greater than 170 knots wind this decade based on satellite alone assuming no recon?

Strongest typhoons more likely the tools to estimates are getting better.

I don't think we will ever see a typhoon achieve greater than 170 knots with satellite alone. You need recon for that. When was the last time a hurricane in the Atlantic achieve 7.5 dvorak operationally?

I just just wonder why the world's most active and powerful basin continues with no recon and probrably the most populated basin. It truly is a loss in meteorology.

Well the US does all the recon in the Atlantic and occasionally the EPAC. For there to be recon in the WPAC, other countries are going to have to send their own planes into storms near their country. The US could send in some from Guam but they wouldn't be able to sample many storms that peak closer to Asia. So it's going to be pretty difficult to get full recon out there

Even if Guam was the only source of recon in the basin, it’s in an optimal position to send out flights to the monster long-trackers in “Typhoon Alley”. Some that were close enough include Soudelor ‘15, Maria ‘18, Yutu ‘18, Hagibis ‘19, and Fengshen ‘19. There are probably a lot more within the last decade that I didn’t remember off the top of my head.

[euro6208]

Strongest typhoons more likely the tools to estimates are getting better.

I don't think we will ever see a typhoon achieve greater than 170 knots with satellite alone. You need recon for that. When was the last time a hurricane in the Atlantic achieve 7.5 dvorak operationally?

I just just wonder why the world's most active and powerful basin continues with no recon and probrably the most populated basin. It truly is a loss in meteorology.

Well the US does all the recon in the Atlantic and occasionally the EPAC. For there to be recon in the WPAC, other countries are going to have to send their own planes into storms near their country. The US could send in some from Guam but they wouldn't be able to sample many storms that peak closer to Asia. So it's going to be pretty difficult to get full recon out there

Even if Guam was the only source of recon in the basin, it’s in an optimal position to send out flights to the monster long-trackers in “Typhoon Alley”. Some that were close enough include Soudelor ‘15, Maria ‘18, Yutu ‘18, Hagibis ‘19, and Fengshen ‘19. There are probably a lot more within the last decade that I didn’t remember off the top of my head.

It would be pretty neat if they do return to Guam. JTWC and the 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron operated out from Guam with the former leaving in 1999 and the latter in 1987. It isn't difficult. Remember they're been doing this for 43 years but budgetary issues.

[Hurricane Jed]

Well with the 2020 WPAC season nearing its end it is safe to say this year's season is well below average.

Interesting to see since 2010 only 3 years (2012, 2015, 2018) managed to get the average (302 per year) or above-average ACE.

The 2010's decade may have lower ACE count but the 2010's decade is home to the strongest typhoons on record (based on JTWC winds) than any decade since the 1970.

And the 2020's decade started with a 170 knots typhoon, could the WPAC finally achieve a greater than 170 knots wind this decade based on satellite alone assuming no recon?

Strongest typhoons more likely the tools to estimates are getting better.

I don't think we will ever see a typhoon achieve greater than 170 knots with satellite alone. You need recon for that. When was the last time a hurricane in the Atlantic achieve 7.5 dvorak operationally?

I just just wonder why the world's most active and powerful basin continues with no recon and probrably the most populated basin. It truly is a loss in meteorology.

The true loss in meteorology is you rambling on and on about this. Give it rest.

[euro6208]

Well the US does all the recon in the Atlantic and occasionally the EPAC. For there to be recon in the WPAC, other countries are going to have to send their own planes into storms near their country. The US could send in some from Guam but they wouldn't be able to sample many storms that peak closer to Asia. So it's going to be pretty difficult to get full recon out there

Even if Guam was the only source of recon in the basin, it’s in an optimal position to send out flights to the monster long-trackers in “Typhoon Alley”. Some that were close enough include Soudelor ‘15, Maria ‘18, Yutu ‘18, Hagibis ‘19, and Fengshen ‘19. There are probably a lot more within the last decade that I didn’t remember off the top of my head.

It would be pretty neat if they do return to Guam. JTWC and the 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron operated out from Guam with the former leaving in 1999 and the latter in 1987. It isn't difficult. Remember they're been doing this for 43 years but budgetary issues.

All that history lost...Incredible. Well not totally lost but slowly fading away....

[TyphoonNara]

The 2010's decade may have lower ACE count but the 2010's decade is home to the strongest typhoons on record (based on JTWC winds) than any decade since the 1970.

And the 2020's decade started with a 170 knots typhoon, could the WPAC finally achieve a greater than 170 knots wind this decade based on satellite alone assuming no recon?

Strongest typhoons more likely the tools to estimates are getting better.

I don't think we will ever see a typhoon achieve greater than 170 knots with satellite alone. You need recon for that. When was the last time a hurricane in the Atlantic achieve 7.5 dvorak operationally?

I just just wonder why the world's most active and powerful basin continues with no recon and probrably the most populated basin. It truly is a loss in meteorology.

Well the US does all the recon in the Atlantic and occasionally the EPAC. For there to be recon in the WPAC, other countries are going to have to send their own planes into storms near their country. The US could send in some from Guam but they wouldn't be able to sample many storms that peak closer to Asia. So it's going to be pretty difficult to get full recon out there

Even if only a handful of WPac storm could have recon, it will be much better than now. With the recons in the Atlantic, it is safe to conclude that Dvorak is far from the perfect tool to estimate storm strength, especially at the higher intensities (T numbers>7). This is mostly because when the Dvorak technique was first developed in the 1970s, most if not all of the storms were sampled in the Atlantic, where storms with high T-numbers are rare. Therefore, by having recon in WPac storms with high T-numbers, we could get valuable data on how Dvorak relates to wind speeds and pressures at high intensities. And finally, we can use these more accurate data to make more accurate estimations on storms that could not have recon.

[ElectricStorm]

Strongest typhoons more likely the tools to estimates are getting better.

I don't think we will ever see a typhoon achieve greater than 170 knots with satellite alone. You need recon for that. When was the last time a hurricane in the Atlantic achieve 7.5 dvorak operationally?

I just just wonder why the world's most active and powerful basin continues with no recon and probrably the most populated basin. It truly is a loss in meteorology.

Well the US does all the recon in the Atlantic and occasionally the EPAC. For there to be recon in the WPAC, other countries are going to have to send their own planes into storms near their country. The US could send in some from Guam but they wouldn't be able to sample many storms that peak closer to Asia. So it's going to be pretty difficult to get full recon out there

Even if only a handful of WPac storm could have recon, it will be much better than now. With the recons in the Atlantic, it is safe to conclude that Dvorak is far from the perfect tool to estimate storm strength, especially at the higher intensities (T numbers>7). This is mostly because when the Dvorak technique was first developed in the 1970s, most if not all of the storms were sampled in the Atlantic, where storms with high T-numbers are rare. Therefore, by having recon in WPac storms with high T-numbers, we could get valuable data on how Dvorak relates to wind speeds and pressures at high intensities. And finally, we can use these more accurate data to make more accurate estimations on storms that could not have recon.

Oh yeah for sure. Any recon is better than what we've got now. I was just saying that it would be tough to sample all of the storms but yeah anything we can get is needed badly