Tropical Wave in NW Caribbean

[chaser1]

I would watch this little fella for the next 24 hours.

the TUTT is forecast by all models to start racing west which will put this low into a much better environment starting later tonight.

the models dont develop it but have they really developed anything this year correctly ? lol

and models very likely are not developing it due to some SAL to the north... which is very narrow and likely wont be a problem.

https://i.ibb.co/Z6K44Hw/11221.gif

Aric, I know that you never met a TW that you didn't like ..... but I think you make a good point here especially when you take into account this season's propensity for most anything to try and develop. I guess it comes down to how much longer can this little guy handle the shear before it relaxes a bit for some more substantial convection to pop and sustain itself? Let's see how that TUTT feature plays out over the next 24 hours. This certainly has some good spin to it.

[Aric Dunn]

I would watch this little fella for the next 24 hours.

the TUTT is forecast by all models to start racing west which will put this low into a much better environment starting later tonight.

the models dont develop it but have they really developed anything this year correctly ? lol

and models very likely are not developing it due to some SAL to the north... which is very narrow and likely wont be a problem.

https://i.ibb.co/Z6K44Hw/11221.gif

Aric, I know that you never met a TW that you didn't like ..... but I think you make a good point here especially when you take into account this season's propensity for most anything to try and develop. I guess it comes down to how much longer can this little guy handle the shear before it relaxes a bit for some more substantial convection to pop and sustain itself? Let's see how that TUTT feature plays out over the next 24 hours. This certainly has some good spin to it.

yeah it is worth being watched. some things going for it later today.

and I dont like every wave..

but I know not to ever underestimate the tropics and always question the models. lol

[cycloneye]

I would watch this little fella for the next 24 hours.

the TUTT is forecast by all models to start racing west which will put this low into a much better environment starting later tonight.

the models dont develop it but have they really developed anything this year correctly ? lol

and models very likely are not developing it due to some SAL to the north... which is very narrow and likely wont be a problem.

https://i.ibb.co/Z6K44Hw/11221.gif

Aric, I know that you never met a TW that you didn't like ..... but I think you make a good point here especially when you take into account this season's propensity for most anything to try and develop. I guess it comes down to how much longer can this little guy handle the shear before it relaxes a bit for some more substantial convection to pop and sustain itself? Let's see how that TUTT feature plays out over the next 24 hours. This certainly has some good spin to it.

yeah it is worth being watched. some things going for it later today.

and I dont like every wave..

but I know not to ever underestimate the tropics and always question the models. lol

The most important thing is that is September and everything has to be watched.

[NDG]

I could had swear that I had posted earlier this morning on this thread that I think this is the TW that the Icon along with some GEPS, GEFS-Para & Euro ensemble members develop further west next week.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
527 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 61W/62W from 20N southward across the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea to eastern Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-15N between 60W-63W.

As an aside, pretty massive convective blowup ongoing this morning about 10 degrees farther west in the central Caribbean in the strongly sheared but highly divergent "sweet spot" just downstream from the axis of the strong TUTT.

I only mention this so that some don't get confused as to the location of the tropical wave now entering the Caribbean that us the topic of the thread.

[toad strangler]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
527 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 61W/62W from 20N southward across the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea to eastern Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-15N between 60W-63W.

As an aside, pretty massive convective blowup ongoing this morning about 10 degrees farther west in the central Caribbean in the strongly sheared but highly divergent "sweet spot" just downstream from the axis of the strong TUTT.

I only mention this so that some don't get confused as to the location of the tropical wave now entering the Caribbean that us the topic of the thread.

whew massive is an understatement! THat blowup stretches from the NE tip of Columbia all the way to the SW most tip of the Dominican Republic.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
527 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 61W/62W from 20N southward across the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea to eastern Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-15N between 60W-63W.

As an aside, pretty massive convective blowup ongoing this morning about 10 degrees farther west in the central Caribbean in the strongly sheared but highly divergent "sweet spot" just downstream from the axis of the strong TUTT.

I only mention this so that some don't get confused as to the location of the tropical wave now entering the Caribbean that us the topic of the thread.

I was wondering what was happening there. Aruba just might get a thunderstorm or two from that massive blowup to their west.

[CaribJam]

It does seems like this TW, with an apparent spin, is catching up with the massive blow-up west of it.

If this happens, it could be interesting...

It is the year called 2020, so who knows.

[Aric Dunn]

It does seems like this TW, with an apparent spin, is catching up with the massive blow-up west of it.

If this happens, it could be interesting...

It is the year called 2020, so who knows.

NHC will likely mention it at 2pm

[ronjon]

It does seems like this TW, with an apparent spin, is catching up with the massive blow-up west of it.

If this happens, it could be interesting...

It is the year called 2020, so who knows.

NHC will likely mention it at 2pm

I believe the ICON and Euro models maintained some vorticity with this feature that eventually migrated northward into the NE GOM early part of next week. Something to keep an eye on...it is Labor Day weekend afterall.

[tropicwatch]

I would think this area would get a lemon at the next TWO.

[hurricanehunter69]

Surprised this wave has not been tagged with a lemon. The wave has a history of a vigorous circulation , and is clearly gaining more energy. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
608 PM Fri Sep 4 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean extending S of 18N with axis
near 64W, moving W at moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 13N to 16N between 62W and
65W.

[floridasun78]

Surprised this wave has not been tagged with a lemon. The wave has a history of a vigorous circulation , and is clearly gaining more energy. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

that area weaking wave look very weak it likely be gone in morning plus shear hitting it from west

[Emmett_Brown]

The ULL/shear is moving W and will gradually lessen, but the GFS shows that some shear will still linger over the W Caribbean, so not ideal for development. However, since there is some spin, and since shear can boost convection and sometimes aid development a little, I wouldn't rule out some modest development perhaps a TD or low end TS by days 3-5. Assuming it stays weak and follows the lower level flow, it could move into the GOM in about 4-5 days.

[ronjon]

The ULL/shear is moving W and will gradually lessen, but the GFS shows that some shear will still linger over the W Caribbean, so not ideal for development. However, since there is some spin, and since shear can boost convection and sometimes aid development a little, I wouldn't rule out some modest development perhaps a TD or low end TS by days 3-5. Assuming it stays weak and follows the lower level flow, it could move into the GOM in about 4-5 days.

And this is exactly what 00z ICON model suggests. Eventually developing a TS off the SW coast of Florida.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020090500&fh=48

[xironman]

Is this cyclonic spin south of PR that wave? If it does not get torn by the shear we may have an invest.

[tropicwatch]

Currently there is very little shear with some vorticity south of Puerto Rico. Could be interesting to watch today.

[chaser1]

Currently there is very little shear with some vorticity south of Puerto Rico. Could be interesting to watch today.

I'm really surprised that NHC has entirely ignored this small feature. I really think that the conventional thinking is that upper level shear would have wrecked it and what little spin would have fully opened back up to a weak wave. Instead, convection appears to have continued and even increased over or just east of it's COC. I'm not suggesting that this is entirely on the surface but it does appear to be low to mid level. If shear remains weak enough, it's not unreasonable for such a tight small system to develop fairly quickly. In fact, this supposed "nothing-burger" could well develop before any of the 13 1/2 Invests over the Eastern Atlantic and inland Africa ever do. Vegas...... i'll put down $10 on the 100-1 spin south of D.R. please

[chaser1]

I would think this area would get a lemon at the next TWO.

Right? How do you not, especially given the over-active year we've had thus far AND if one considers the redundant Caribbean tracks of Laura, Marco, and Nana broadly suggesting that the Caribbean might continue to be a more favorable region for development within the basin. Largely due to it's small size and capacity to spin up quickly, I'd go so far as to tag it with a 30% within 48 hr.'s and perhaps 40% beyond that. My guess is that NHC will probably go 10%/10% or even continue to ignore it for the time being.