Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today (Is Invest 95L)

[toad strangler]

FWIW the 12z CMC looks like the 12z ICON

[Ubuntwo]

Atlantic ridging is above normal, so a weaker system will continue W or WNW towards the islands. A stronger system will gain a little more latitude but models have this one coming off pretty far south. So folks in the islands keep an eye out.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC looks like a recurve:

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1436737433509380099

[cycloneye]

GFS ensembles very spread out.

[Stormybajan]

So far icon and cmc show a recurve and gfs basically shows a tropical wave. What the euro shows in the next hour will be very telling if this will be a trend or not

[cycloneye]

Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of
Africa in a few days. Some development of this system will be
possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[AutoPenalti]

There’s a split in the models and it has to do with future 95L’s forward speed. Faster movement, slower development will likely pass underneath the split in the ridge. If that happens then we are in trouble.

[AnnularCane]

Could be future 96L with the possible Bahamas development.

[cycloneye]

There it is.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro looks like a recurve well NE of the Lesser Antilles. The last three model runs have trended more north and stronger:

[SFLcane]

Fishy parade on the euro it’s not even close.

[Category5Kaiju]

So what is happening with Chanthu's indirect ability to strengthen the ridge over Canada as Eric Webb pointed out?

[aspen]

Seems like the Bahamas system could become a key player in determining this system’s track, as it helps open a break in the ridge off the east coast.

[cycloneye]

The low pressure that will form near the Bahamas may be the cause for the ridge to break.

[SFLcane]

That’s it for the cv season. Not likely to have any Florida threats through the end of September.

[AlphaToOmega]

Reminds me of a certain "M" storm from the year MMXVII

[Teban54]

That’s it for the cv season. Not likely to have any Florida threats through the end of September.

Good to know how reliable one single model run that only goes up to Sep 20 is in predicting the future through Sep 30.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.postimg.cc/yY66yMWG/ecens-2021-09-11-00-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png
Reminds me of a certain "M" storm from the year MMXVII

Also a few models have it as a powerful hurricane passing through Hebert Box 1. Interesting.

[Category5Kaiju]

That’s it for the cv season. Not likely to have any Florida threats through the end of September.

Good to know how reliable one single model run that only goes up to Sep 20 is in predicting the future through Sep 30.

This is why I love ensembles, not singular model runs.