Wave East of Windward Islands

[cycloneye]

Hmm,interesting that they are starting to mention this.Lets keep watching how this big area evolves in the next few days.

[cycloneye]

Stu,I merged your thread with this one that was already posted about the same general area.

[Gustywind]

Stu,I merged your thread with this one that was already posted about the same general area.

yes cycloneye tkanks, something to watch...nice and large enveloppe and the nhc is speaking already about it...interresting !

[stu]

I am just looking through the 18z GFS (which is just rolling in) currently out to +H132

The model blows up convection from about 84 Hours and it looking rather tasty at +H132 - centred around 15N 31W

I will stay up until the whole run is out so that I can post a loop - but it looks like the 18z GFs is onto something....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132m.gif

Edit -

Still there on 18z GFSA through +168H
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168m.gif

[BigA]

Hmm, moderately bullish TWO language for a system first introduced. Its still not so late that things cant form east of the Lesser Antilles, especially only a little ways east as this thing appears to be. Interesting area of convection at 9-10N, 48 west.

Definitely worth ursine monitoring.

[Gustywind]

Hmm, moderately bullish TWO language for a system first introduced. Its still not so late that things cant form east of the Lesser Antilles, especially only a little ways east as this thing appears to be. Interesting area of convection at 9-10N, 48 west.

Definitely worth ursine monitoring.

Absolutely BIG A , something to monitor in the next couple of days....we will see!
000
AXNT20 KNHC 212355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

A LOWER LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 15N MOVING W 10
KT. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN ABSORBED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
THIS HAS MADE THE POSITION DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT WITH THE
CURRENT AXIS DRAWN THROUGH THE VERY BROAD FAINT INVERTED V-SHAPE
WITHIN THE ITCZ. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE SPREAD OUT BY THE MODERATE TO STRONG
DIVERGENT MID TO UPPER FLOW IN THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 36W-44W.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Hmm, moderately bullish TWO language for a system first introduced. Its still not so late that things cant form east of the Lesser Antilles, especially only a little ways east as this thing appears to be. Interesting area of convection at 9-10N, 48 west.

Definitely worth ursine monitoring.

Ursine montoring..I suppose so that we'll be ready in case the fecal matter impacts the rotary oscillator right. Chuckle

[BigA]

Ursine montoring..I suppose so that we'll be ready in case the fecal matter impacts the rotary oscillator right. Chuckle

I just wanted a somewhat clever way of saying "bears watching." In any case, it does, but nothing to worry about yet.

[Zardoz]

Oh, come on, folks! You know what's gonna happen. Anything that develops out of this will hit The Great Wall of Shear at 60W and end up like poor ol' Ingrid.

[cycloneye]

10:30 PM TWO

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF WESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL WAVES. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Meso]

Not sure if this is for the wave/waves that this thread is about but.



LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF WESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL WAVES. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

After looking at the date of wave being introduced,this one is the wave.So I am merging the perturbation at itcz thread to this one.GustyWind,lets continue here the discussions of this system.

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

After looking at the date of wave being introduced,this one is the wave.So I am merging the perturbation at itcz thread to this one.GustyWind,lets continue here the discussions of this system.

Absolutely agree with you

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221028
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MUCH
OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH A VERY BROAD FAINT
INVERTED-V CURVATURE. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER HIGH ALSO
MASKING THE SIGNATURE WITH ANY CONVECTION TO THE W OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

[Gustywind]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... egion=ATLE

[Vortex]

This is one wave to watch..ECMWF brings a low just east of the islands in 72 and into the Bahamas in about 7 days. Other models are also hinting at development. All models bring very heavy rainfall at the very least to the island chain in about 3 days.

00Z Ecmwf loop
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[Sanibel]

Too dry.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
9N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 46W...AND FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 48W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURVING
ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 32W AND 55W.