SE CONUS Coast Watch - Now 97L

[Aric Dunn]

If that's a TD that will bread the record for the tiniest TD ever, lol.
That's just a mesovortix, IMO.

Meso vort is I agree.
But, I have seen crazier systems designated aTD by NHC over the years NDG.
I have seen it all trust me in this business LOL...

I have seen many "meso vorts" be the start of TCs this one is already growing. technically they all start from a small meso-vorts that grows as the pressure drops. even in large broad wave axis.

[northjaxpro]

Also took a peek at the 850 mb vorticity map this morning , which was incidentally posted on the thread with the naked swirl feature
Vorticity looks pretty good off the GA/SC coast.

[Aric Dunn]

Hilton head just switched to wnw wind as the center passed to its NE. we have a closed circ. expanding sprial bands..

convection just needs to maintain for another couple hours and the trigger will likely be pulled.

[Aric Dunn]

unless of course it moves inland..

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1162729423503798273

[GCANE]

Tropical Tidbits posted a Manual Floater on this

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[Aric Dunn]

and inland it goes... so we wait.. lol

[NDG]

And just like that the MCV is died off, I am sure another one will form from the new convection off shore and will go through the same process. Better chance of a TD forming once it moves off of the NC coast in a couple of days, IMO.

[northjaxpro]

And just like that the MCV is died off, I am sure another one will form from the new convection off shore and will go through the same process. Better chance of a TD forming once it moves off of the NC coast in a couple of days, IMO.

Yep.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A surface trough is producing a band of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northeast Gulf of Mexico northeastward across the
coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The shower
activity is currently most concentrated near a small area of low
pressure located along the trough near the South Carolina coast.
Tropical development of this system, if any, is likely to be slow as
the disturbance moves northeastward along the eastern coast of the
United States with increasing forward speed during the few days.
Regardless of development, the disturbance is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall along with a threat of flash flooding in that region.
Please see products from your local National Weather Service office
or the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Outlook for
more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[wxman57]

Poof, the brief little swirl in the Gulf is gone. Nothing can survive in high wind shear. There is a more significant low moving off the SC coast this afternoon, but it won't have much chance of developing, either. I know that there was at least one season with no August named storms. That would be 1961. Only one storm prior to August, but 10 after August, including 7 majors. I don't think the tropics look anything like 1961, though.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Some nice turning visible on klystron 9 right off Clearwater beach

[Aric Dunn]

convection coming back over land..though it is just moving farther inland. have to wait now for it to exit of NC. it had small chance to ride the coast.

nice small well defined circ on visible and radar and surface obs. was definitely more than an MCV before it moved ashore earlier.

[GCANE]

convection coming back over land..though it is just moving farther inland. have to wait now for it to exit of NC. it had small chance to ride the coast.

nice small well defined circ on visible and radar and surface obs. was definitely more than an MCV before it moved ashore earlier.

Its surviving

[Hammy]

It's kind of frustrating when these fronts stall out just 50 or so miles too far west so you get these sorts of systems that would otherwise probably be upgraded and develop had the center been just a bit further east over water, especially when they wouldn't really be affecting land a while lot.

[ouragans]

It's now 97L and Levi has a floater on it

[DioBrando]

heh

sigh

[NotSparta]

It's now 97L and Levi has a floater on it

Satellite data is old, hasn't come in for the past 5 1/2 hours

[Aric Dunn]

not really surprised even though its over land..

[GCANE]

Was a good thread with lots of great discussion.
Thanks everyone for contributing.