2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[blp]

By day 10. the GFS, CMC, and ICON all have a sharp wave axis just outside the Caribbean.

The GFS depicts it tracking through a solid environment through day 16. Run to run variation remains very high but this is the 5th consecutive run to show development.
https://imgur.com/E1wryKQ

Yep this one starting to look for real. Let's see if the Euro bites.

[weeniepatrol]

Oh boy!

[blp]

Closeup of CMC as Ubuntwo pointed out. Similar to the GFS but stronger.

[Monsoonjr99]

With Pamela underperforming big time, the models had to have been stuck in El Nino mode, and were probably just as out to lunch with showing a dead Atlantic this month.

[kevin]

The model bust regarding Pamela which will, according to the latest advisory, make landfall as a cat 1 instead of a high end MH that seemed to be in the cards a few days ago, also has a big impact on the Atlantic. Weaker Pamela = less shear in the Atlantic = easier TC genesis the coming week(s). Now that more models are picking up on it, I'm interested to see what they will do with the MDR system and the homegrown system the coming days.

[aspen]

06z GFS shows the precursor wave, but doesn’t develop it this time, instead developing a strong TS/weak hurricane in the subtropics in the long-range.

[SFLcane]

06z GFS shows the precursor wave, but doesn’t develop it this time, instead developing a strong TS/weak hurricane in the subtropics in the long-range.

Meh pure fantasy from the gfs. No other models even remotely shows this outside of some extreme long range ensembles. The jet stream is fully draped over gulf and Florida. I honestly think if anything develops its likely to stay in the Caribbean. The gfs will keep pumping 300hr storms till January.

[Category5Kaiju]

06z GFS shows the precursor wave, but doesn’t develop it this time, instead developing a strong TS/weak hurricane in the subtropics in the long-range.

Honestly, this run is a bit sus; it shows two areas of robust vorticity spin up off of the west coast of Central America and linger there while growing more intense; given we are entering a moderate La Nina state with Pamela completely busting and underperforming contrary to expectations, I honestly do not think this is even a possible outcome. These two areas of vorticity would likely not survive for long or not even form in the EPAC at all, if anything that area of disturbed weather would likely be favored in the WCAR especially later this month, which is why imho the 00z run is a more plausible run than the 06z. Just my take on this though.

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS ensembles in the long-range. You can track the wave where it shows some weak lows just SE of the Lesser Antilles which move west into the Caribbean with some development. This one may not be a phantom since other models are picking up on the wave also.

[SFLcane]

Until I see other operational models come onboard I will say it’s some good ole Caribbean GFS…

[SFLcane]

Gfs sends a strong front all the way into the Caribbean which in a sense would put the nail into the coffin.

[Teban54]

Gfs sends a strong front all the way into the Caribbean which in a sense would put the nail into the coffin.

https://i.postimg.cc/tgfZfW7H/E5299420-B94-E-40-EE-900-C-7922-BA5-D8626.jpg

Until I see other operational models come onboard I will say it’s some good ole strong front GFS…

[Category5Kaiju]

Gfs sends a strong front all the way into the Caribbean which in a sense would put the nail into the coffin.

https://i.postimg.cc/tgfZfW7H/E5299420-B94-E-40-EE-900-C-7922-BA5-D8626.jpg

That run though isn’t necessarily something I personally would put a lot of stock on, given how Pamela greatly underperformed (thus showing how the EPAC conditions as of now are not very favorable, which would be expected to grow more unfavorable as the month elapses and the La Niña becomes more firmly entrenched) yet that run shows an El Nino-like pattern with a robust vorticity right off the western coast of Central America and ripping Atlantic winds.

[aspen]

Gfs sends a strong front all the way into the Caribbean which in a sense would put the nail into the coffin.

https://i.postimg.cc/tgfZfW7H/E5299420-B94-E-40-EE-900-C-7922-BA5-D8626.jpg

A low-latitude October EPac hurricane and suppressive conditions in the Atlantic? Looks like the other kind of GFS bias to me. It still shows the precursor distance despite that, supporting the potential that this isn’t a phantom.

[AutoPenalti]

Gfs sends a strong front all the way into the Caribbean which in a sense would put the nail into the coffin.

https://i.postimg.cc/tgfZfW7H/E5299420-B94-E-40-EE-900-C-7922-BA5-D8626.jpg

So wait, you put more weight into the same 384 forecast of a cold front than a formation of a TC in the Caribbean?

[LarryWx]

Fwiw, this is much earlier in the GFS:

[Ubuntwo]

Fwiw, this is much earlier in the GFS:

https://i.imgur.com/itT2LNb.png

That is a wave currently in the MDR which past runs developed Pacific side. No other model spins it up except the ICON (to some extent). It has mild support in the Euro and GFS ensembles.

[aspen]

12z GFS is very quiet worldwide, besides the thing that tries spinning up over the Yucatán and the precursor wave to the WCar system showing up but not developing.

Edit: actually, there’s a long-range WPac system (last run didn’t have any) and maybe something trying to develop on the EPac side of Central America

[Category5Kaiju]

Whoa, those are some pretty potent GEFS ensemble signals for the potential WCAR disturbance around the 20th....and it looks to take that classic late season NE curve toward, you guess it....Florida.

[blp]

12z GEFS much more excited about the earlier timeframe as well. Go figure today everything is getting shifted forward.

This just tells me that something is going to pop up soon. I cannot envision nothing happening down there with all the positive variables.