Disturbance off NE Florida (Now invest 96L)

[DESTRUCTION5]

Actually looks like our "center is over Ft Meyers right now moving NE...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Actually looks like our "center is over Ft Meyers right now moving NE...

I noticed that too. It almost looks like there might be two possible "centers". The one west of St. Pete would have the better chance at developing though since it is still over water.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... W&loop=yes

[dizzyfish]

I was looking at the radar and I can't tell if it is scooting closer to the coast or expanding. Thoughts?

[HURAKAN]

We could have 95L later today.

[Noles2006]

The circulation that I see is near Sarasota, moving eastward.

No development due to land proximity.

[Cryomaniac]

This post is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological, economic or otherwise. As such it should not be used for any purpose

I think this will be 95L later today. I think it's too close to the coast to actually become Cristobal though.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm getting a good rain shower in Orlando right now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It does look like the "center" is probably inland now NE of Fort Myers. The big question is whether or not the system stays inland or slowly migrates back toward the water? Even inland, this thing will probably get better organized, but it will never be upgraded to a TD or TS unless it is over water. Still needs to be watched, IMO, especially in terms of heavy rain potential. JB thinks this system could easily dump as much as 10-15" of rain along parts of the west coast of FL south of Tampa.

[cpdaman]

appears a bit East of sarasota to me and on the NHC website shows low just inland.

anyone note the spin developing on the atlantic side NE of jacksonville?

[Extremeweatherguy]

[wx247]

NHC has a floater on it now calling it INVEST...

[cpdaman]

radar reflection shows a spin near Sebring florida

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

not sure at what level though

[Sanibel]

Also seeing center quickly moving NE near Sebring. Obvious spin.


Moderate bands moving into Sanibel.


Should develop off east coast over Gulf Stream.

[Matthew Williams]

Does anyone know what JB is saying about his prediction for the GOM? Kinda curious to see if he is still tossing the idea around.

[wxsouth]

Sfc obs don't reflect a sfc center with the twist over the southern peninsula. Suspect this is a mid level feature. Sfc obs combined with quickscat suggest elongated trough from Melbourne to Tampa and into the Eastern Gulf

[Aric Dunn]

yeah radar is very clear on the greatest vorticity being over central florida.. and heading ene ..may emerge into the atlantic since whats left of the boundary is still present and if another low is starting to form east Jax than that will cause more uncertainties..

[PTrackerLA]

JB thinks it can develop into a weak TS but will generally move north and dump lots of rain on Florida and the Southeast.

[Sanibel]

Hard rain right now. No thunder or lightning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... W&loop=yes

[Extremeweatherguy]

They've got to be getting hammered down on the south side of Lake Okeechobee right now! Radar has shown a very persistent band of heavy rain in that area for at least the last hour and there doesn't appear to be an end in sight...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... B&loop=yes

As for the actual circulation, it looks to be centered somewhere between Sebring and Kissimmee (NW of Sebring, SW of Kissimmee), generally just meandering around. The overall structure appears to be improving, so if it can manage to sneak back towards water (either the Gulf or Atlantic), then it will still have a shot at some development, IMO.