2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[cycloneye]

The ghost of ex 93L revives.

[Kingarabian]

The ghost of ex 93L revives.

Might be a wave east of ex 93L.

[Siker]

The ghost of ex 93L revives.

It's actually the wave east of 93L (SW of Cabo Verde right now).

[floridasun78]

what area you taking about? or gfs that was post here i lost?

[crownweather]

The ghost of ex 93L revives.

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1150539401040224256

[floridasun78]

only gfs showing it for now look good not seen other system let see other pick up what gfs show

[N2FSU]

0z GFS dropped it.

[artist]

Anyone else seeing Levi’s models are all intiating on the 13, rather than today?

[toad strangler]

Crickets out through 8/1

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Crickets out through 8/1

GOOD

[Blinhart]

Crickets out through 8/1

GOOD

Great to hear.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro has Barry 2.0 in the long range although it doesn't quite reach the GOM waters.

[SFLcane]

12z Euro has Barry 2.0 in the long range although it doesn't quite reach the GOM waters.

Please no...I will pass on that wannabe shredded mess

[Kingarabian]

[floridasun78]

https://i.imgur.com/oKAhfI0.gif

that bad model run some thing dont look right that low dont touch water so likely none tropical low

[SoupBone]

Barry 2.0 would be renamed Chantal IF it were to become a depression correct?

[bamajammer4eva]

Just a Cold front expected to move deep into the SE next week and this was mentioned by NWS Tallahassee in their Discussion overnight. Would probably have to stall out for days to do what the Euro shows.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The trend that began in the short term will continue with PoPs
returning to more seasonal levels for mid to late July (40-50%)
through the weekend. Early next week the upper level pattern is
forecast to become much more amplified with a building ridge out
west and a deepening trough in the east. This pattern may send a
cold front deep into the southeast CONUS with even better chances
for showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday.

GFS for next Tuesday afternoon.

[drezee]

12z Euro has Barry 2.0 in the long range although it doesn't quite reach the GOM waters.

I would say closer to Danny 2.0 from 1997...with less development

[USTropics]

Barry 2.0 would be renamed Chantal IF it were to become a depression correct?

If a new system were to develop, it would not be related to the remains of Barry. All of the models are in good agreement on the remains of Barry to gradually recurve NE and then E across the Ohio Valley, becoming absorbed in the westerlies and crossing through portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic region by Thursday.

The genesis appears to be associated with a forecasted frontal zone up near the Great Lakes on the 22nd of July that dives rapidly south:



You can see this process in the GFS model:


Below is the hi-res ECMWF 850mb vorticity loop as well, I would say genesis is highly suspect (vort signature develops significantly over LA, not really tropical in origination):

[floridasun78]

i don't any thing until after aug 15 the Atlantic and Caribbean are dead zone for tropical weather their alot sal moving cross the tropical and shear not good system and dry air too killing storms try form only area watch home grown system like barry none big models show any thing