2014 hurricane season forecasts

[Hurricaneman]

That is probably one thing Florida residents dont want to hear.....2004 was a bad year for Florida.

What's interesting to me is it seems the weather patterns are starting to resemble 2004 with these anomalous troughs coming down in the east. That season got off to a slow start until the very end of July and then boom. I distinctly remember record breaking cold for this area while Hurricane Charley was being pulled over the west coast of Florida. We had lows in the 50s in August! It seems to me that similar upper level pattern could be in place this season but will there be any systems to take advantage of this?

The pattern is very much like 2004 but the main difference is that the MDR has below normal instability and there is screaming shear in the Caribbean but the fact that 2004 is brought up at all is making me stay vigilant as there could be a problem if the Caribbean shear goes away.

And another note is there were e storms that formed in the MDR{Frances, Danielle and Ivan} in which I don't think a storm like them is going to happen but the storms that formed west of 50W are the type I do expect come August based on the pattern and don't be surprised even if not likely if a Charley type system happens and shows us that while the MDR is dry and stable that conditions farther west can't be more favorable

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and not to mention the CFS model is indicating a Madoki El Nino like 2004 which is starting to add 2004 to the analog pile

[TheStormExpert]

I don't see how 2004 can begin to be an analog. Conditions across the Atlantic in 2004 were much more favorable than they are now.

[tolakram]

So my current thinking for this season,

Persistence is not a forecast. It certainly looks like these horrible conditions will persist, but why?

I did two weather related guesses this year. The seasonal poll here, which I think will be too high, and a number of 90 degree days at CVG poll on a local weather forum, where I guessed low and will still probably bust high. We just had a couple of 90 degree days and boom, back to gorgeous weather in the mid to upper 70's.

[blp]

Article by Dr. Masters about the slowest season ever 1914. My question is how did they get information about atmosphere that far back? I thought that data was not available until the Satellite era.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2737#commenttop

[ninel conde]

this in no way is similar to 2004.

[SouthFloridian92]

I do wonder why it is that the atmosphere has been so hostile towards hurricane formation. It's like Mother Nature doing everything she can to prevent any storms from being formed.

It's odd.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Cold front possibly making it down to SFL during July. That doesn't seem right in the summer. With that big trough digging down it seems more like October-November.

BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND MIGHT PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST TO BE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

[Ntxw]

Dry air and more importantly sinking air is still plaguing the tropical Atlantic. Shear however is not as disastrous as it was a month ago, though still a little higher than normal. I would still focus on any good development chances in the subtropics. The NGOM for the time being won't be that favorable IMO because these troughs also brings shear with them.

[Scorpion]

I wonder if there are certain interests with alot of resources with the ability to control or prevent cyclogensis in tropical waves. It has been on my mind recently, I just cant understand why there has been pretty much nothing of note in about 6 years now. I feel they do have to let one form naturally to keep the public aware as well as justify insurers raising their rates. Plus there is an entire industry that depends on hurricane protection. If you prevent hurricanes all kinds of bad things that we cannot even imagine could certainly occur.

[RL3AO]

[WPBWeather]

Not where I live in South Florida!

[baytownwx]

Posted this in the "global model runs" thread, but figured it may be more appropriate here. Levi Cowan's video discussing his views on the rest of hurricane season.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2014/08/02/bertha-and-beyond/

[gigabite]

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/829/5z7d.jpg

This is 2 for 4. This Season two tropical depressions have formed in the span of 4 days either side of the
New Moon, Hurricane Amanda, and Tropical Depression Four. The mechanism seems to be more than just
the effect of atmospheric tide. This outcome is repeats every season. The percentage is generally above
50, and can get as high as 80.

That's the East Pacific not the Atlantic FYI. There's an EPAC seasonal thread

What does this mean for the WPAC season? I see Jul 1 in the Malay Peninsula and onwards in the WPAC...

wp 3/14, ep 5/9, al 0/3 | So far this year the initiation date, New Moon Phase Peak is in the East Pacific.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

500mb relative humidity was at its lowest point on record across the MDR during the month of July.

[Hurricaneman]

500mb relative humidity was at its lowest point on record across the MDR during the month of July.

which is another reason Bertha is such a miracle as it had to battle that

[Cyclenall]

500mb relative humidity was at its lowest point on record across the MDR during the month of July.

*Image Cut*

Amazing. And not just by a little, but by an enormous margin for a range that isn't large. It appears just eying that its been on a slow decline since records began. What area of the NCEP website did this come from exactly?

[Ntxw]

Actually, in contrast to the past few months shear across the Caribbean is going to improve in the coming weeks while above (subtropics) will increase. Towards the end of this month I would give the Carib a look as to possible development. Dry air will remain an issue but it's not overwhelming.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

500mb relative humidity was at its lowest point on record across the MDR during the month of July.

*Image Cut*

Amazing. And not just by a little, but by an enormous margin for a range that isn't large. It appears just eying that its been on a slow decline since records began. What area of the NCEP website did this come from exactly?

Link

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting tweet by Tropical Tidbit's Levi Cowan:

[WeatherGuesser]

Aug 7 (Reuters) - Federal forecasters on Thursday downgraded their outlook for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting "below normal" activity with seven to 12 named storms, no more than two of which are expected to reach major hurricane status.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said it was more confident of a below-normal season than when it issued its initial advisory in May, when a "near or below normal" season was predicted.

The revised forecast predicts 70 percent chances of a below-normal season, compared to the 50 percent odds issued by NOAA' forecasters in May.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/ ... BZ20140807