Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 93L)

[mantis83]

I think we are all doing a little wishcasting right now. Heat is unbearable for so many.

No need for it in SEFLA, we have had a very active rainy season...already past the season average at FLL

Lol wait till November January when El Niños influence gets stronger. Cfs has a boat load of rain right through the holidays into next year. We’re gonna need a bigger boat!

would rather have gentle winter rains rather than a hurricane tho......

[SouthFLTropics]

Slowly but surely it is starting to get that "look" down there just off Honduras. The pot is simmering.

[Ianswfl]

Slowly but surely it is starting to get that "look" down there just off Honduras. The pot is simmering.

https://i.imgur.com/9cLb1pd.gif

Looks like formation is speeding up a bit and a bit more east. Im thinking tampa region or tad south on tue. Luckily means a bit weaker less time over the gulf.

[chaser1]

Quick look at the SW Atlantic and I felt the strong urge to shop for Halloween decorations

[SouthFLTropics]

Quick look at the SW Atlantic and I felt the strong urge to shop for Halloween decorations

It does look like October out there… but it feels like the surface of the sun when I go outside.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[zzzh]

CAG-like event is very rare in August.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1694874327517212815

[Ianswfl]

https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1694874327517212815

NHC favoring that blob offshore already. Could see a TD Sat I think, landfall tue.

[lsuhurricane]

0z ICON with quite a western shift.....

[lsuhurricane]

0z GFS is finally catching on:

[Ianswfl]

0z GFS is finally catching on:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023082500/gfs_z850_vort_watl_7.png

Then goes poof again

[Woofde]

That ICON run would take it directly over 32C waters. If it finds the right upper atmospheric conditions, things can get moving very quickly.

[Ianswfl]

NHC seems to think this will form more east than what the models show. It seems this happens lately. Storms moving Northward in the eastern gulf want to go more east.

[lsuhurricane]

0z GFS is finally catching on:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023082500/gfs_z850_vort_watl_7.png

Then goes poof again

Not this time. Its developing

[Ianswfl]

0z GFS is finally catching on:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023082500/gfs_z850_vort_watl_7.png

Then goes poof again

Not this time. Its developing

FINALLY does, still a strung out, sheared mess thru hour 102 but at least it shows a weak TD or storm now. Sheared galore.

[Ianswfl]

I'm going to make another thread sometime on this, but I gotta wonder if this is kinda how the Ground Hog day TS formed in Feb and got sucked up and hit FL like this. I'd like to know what that would have looked like on radar and satellite. If it was by an old front festering down there or a gyre like this.

[Ianswfl]

GFS landfall early Wed weak tropical storm in the 40 to 50mph range around Englewood. Sheared mess. Like a Harvey 1998.

hard to believe this weak. Maybe take the Euro and GFS extremes. Call it 75mph landfall storm maybe.

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC strengthens it and takes it towards Tallahassee.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[LarryWx]

NHC seems to think this will form more east than what the models show. It seems this happens lately. Storms moving Northward in the eastern gulf want to go more east.

Ian came in much further south than where the bulk of the models had him going from just a couple of days out. Many runs had him headed toward Tampa or even further north. The UKMET did the best though as it had SW landfalls quite early.

[N2FSU]

0z Canadian


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk