Global model runs discussion

Macrocane · #2681 Postby **Macrocane** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 8:19 am

jabman98 wrote:What's up with something shown to develop down in the Bay of Campeche?

It seems that it will be part of the remnants from the unseasonable trough that will lift up Lee in a couple of days.

HurricaneFan · #2682 Postby **HurricaneFan** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 11:37 am

So is the TC at 192 hours approaching the Caribbean labeled pouch P24L right now?

#2683 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 12:02 pm

GFS develops another system in the SW Caribbean on the extreme long range and moves to the position you see.

Saved image.

#2684 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 12:36 pm

The 00z CMC ensembles support the scenario of GFS of something forming in the NW Caribbean on the long range.

#2685 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 12:41 pm

The 00z NAEFS also supports the GFS long range in the NW Caribbean.

Saved image.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #2686 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:54 pm

Euro insists in the formation of a system entering the Caribbean by next weekend. Note that this time it develops two systems...

ECMWF 12Z

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#2687 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:02 pm

When GFS and Euro join,you have to pay attention. The NW Caribbean area by mid month is getting traction.

12z ECMWF.

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CYCLONE MIKE · #2688 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:19 pm

As Lee is wrapping up around here(no pun intended) I am already starting to look at our next possible threat. Saw the GFS runs last night and this morning that was showing a system in the central gulf onthe 11th originating deep in the BOC. Probably develops from the tailend of the cold front that is supposed to move through here tomorrow and tuesday. Saw one euro run last night that also showed this possibilty. Have been away from computer today, has anything changed or do we still have model support for this scenario?

#2689 Postby **somethingfunny** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:52 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:As Lee is wrapping up around here(no pun intended) I am already starting to look at our next possible threat. Saw the GFS runs last night and this morning that was showing a system in the central gulf onthe 11th originating deep in the BOC. Probably develops from the tailend of the cold front that is supposed to move through here tomorrow and tuesday. Saw one euro run last night that also showed this possibilty. Have been away from computer today, has anything changed or do we still have model support for this scenario?

12Z model rundown on Katia and next week's BOC storm:

GFS: recurve, BOC storm forms, NW Caribbean storm pushed back to 9/20
UKMET: gonna hit Jax-SC area, no BOC storm
CMC: recurve, BOC storm forms
NOGAPS: recurve, BOC storm forms
...and of course the Euro.....
recurve (LOL 929mb off cape cod), no BOC storm, but that NW caribbean storm is developing at 9/14

CYCLONE MIKE · #2690 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:59 pm

Thanks something funny. Looks like we have some model support for possible development down there later this week. Something definitely to watch for. Makes me think back to Opal from years ago. I know she didn't form on the tail end of a stalled out front but exploded overnight in the gulf. Scared the you know what out of folks around here.

#2691 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 6:05 pm

Another run by GFS (18z) showing the NW Caribbean development. Also,it has another system NE of the Leewards.

Saved image.

CYCLONE MIKE · #2692 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 6:24 pm

Looks like september has the potential to be a very active month. Including Lee could have 5 or maybe 6 named systems. :eek:

ROCK · #2693 Postby **ROCK** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 7:13 pm

interesting...what i take from the long range GFS is that the lid is going to blow off in the next 2 weeks. Not really looking at the storms its developing but the overall pattern...

CYCLONE MIKE · #2694 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 7:27 pm

And the overall pattern is very concerning regarding if even one or two of these storms actually forms. Reasoning is because all the models show pretty strong ridging building in behind Katia for the next 2 weeks or so. So means whatever does develop will not be recurving.

#2695 Postby **BigA** » Sun Sep 04, 2011 8:33 pm

Favorable MJO also expected in the basin around mid. September. An active time is a strong possibility.

ROCK · #2696 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:35 am

the EURO shows our little BOC guy at 144...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif

also shows a low lat crusier trying to get going....

ROCK · #2697 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:38 am

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif

168 our friend in the BOC lifting slowly north...the other system is south of PR....which gains a ton of lat between 144-168....

ROCK · #2698 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:48 am

192hr

buries the BOC guy into MX.....still got a friend close to DR....but looks weak...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

ROCK · #2699 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:53 am

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP216.gif

216Hr ramping up near Jam.....

#2700 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:17 am

And at 240 hours,near Jamaica is where what is now Pouch P24L ends run.

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