2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[CyclonicFury]

Although the MDR hasn't had many strong storms this season, it produced a major hurricane, which is stronger than anything the MDR produced in 2005.

[otowntiger]

https://twitter.com/GregDeeWeather/status/1306312729263853572
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1306238221374947328
https://twitter.com/KyleNoel15/status/1306305188106559489

That image at the end of your post that depicts areas along the us coast affected by storms this season is somewhat misleading. The Florida peninsula has been completely unscathed this year- more so than any other state. The color shown along the southern portion was perhaps from isaias and I guess Laura- but those affects were very minimal. I think that’s the surprise so far this year in an extremely active season the peninsula virtually not being touched. And no apparent threat developing for the foreseeable future.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1306632629886869504

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/GregDeeWeather/status/1306312729263853572
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1306238221374947328
https://twitter.com/KyleNoel15/status/1306305188106559489

That image at the end of your post that depicts areas along the us coast affected by storms this season is somewhat misleading. The Florida peninsula has been completely unscathed this year- more so than any other state. The color shown along the southern portion was perhaps from isaias and I guess Laura- but those affects were very minimal. I think that’s the surprise so far this year in an extremely active season the peninsula virtually not being touched. And no apparent threat developing for the foreseeable future.

October has proven to be the most threatening month for at least the Florida peninsula with storms like Wilma in 2005 coming up from the Western Caribbean, hopefully our luck continues!

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/GregDeeWeather/status/1306312729263853572
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1306238221374947328
https://twitter.com/KyleNoel15/status/1306305188106559489

That image at the end of your post that depicts areas along the us coast affected by storms this season is somewhat misleading. The Florida peninsula has been completely unscathed this year- more so than any other state. The color shown along the southern portion was perhaps from isaias and I guess Laura- but those affects were very minimal. I think that’s the surprise so far this year in an extremely active season the peninsula virtually not being touched. And no apparent threat developing for the foreseeable future.

October has proven to be the most threatening month for at least the Florida peninsula with storms like Wilma in 2005 coming up from the Western Caribbean, hopefully our luck continues!

October is not the most threatening month to the Florida peninsula. That honor goes to September. What October does show IRT Florida is the most likely general climo storm track from the SW out of the Caribbean through the peninsula. N Central GOM still in play (ala Michael) but climo prefers a GENERAL track just like Wilma made in 2005.

[TheStormExpert]

That image at the end of your post that depicts areas along the us coast affected by storms this season is somewhat misleading. The Florida peninsula has been completely unscathed this year- more so than any other state. The color shown along the southern portion was perhaps from isaias and I guess Laura- but those affects were very minimal. I think that’s the surprise so far this year in an extremely active season the peninsula virtually not being touched. And no apparent threat developing for the foreseeable future.

October has proven to be the most threatening month for at least the Florida peninsula with storms like Wilma in 2005 coming up from the Western Caribbean, hopefully our luck continues!

October is not the most threatening month to the Florida peninsula. That honor goes to September. What October does show IRT Florida is the most likely general climo storm track from the SW out of the Caribbean through the peninsula. N Central GOM still in play (ala Michael) but climo prefers a GENERAL track just like Wilma made in 2005.

I beg to differ. Climatologically there have been more hurricane hits to South Florida in October than August or September. Like some have said, tracks towards South Florida from the east or southeast are rare and with troughs starting to swing through the U.S. East Coast it wouldn’t surprise me if something down in the Western Caribbean was drawn north and east towards Florida next month.

[gatorcane]

That image at the end of your post that depicts areas along the us coast affected by storms this season is somewhat misleading. The Florida peninsula has been completely unscathed this year- more so than any other state. The color shown along the southern portion was perhaps from isaias and I guess Laura- but those affects were very minimal. I think that’s the surprise so far this year in an extremely active season the peninsula virtually not being touched. And no apparent threat developing for the foreseeable future.

October has proven to be the most threatening month for at least the Florida peninsula with storms like Wilma in 2005 coming up from the Western Caribbean, hopefully our luck continues!

October is not the most threatening month to the Florida peninsula. That honor goes to September. What October does show IRT Florida is the most likely general climo storm track from the SW out of the Caribbean through the peninsula. N Central GOM still in play (ala Michael) but climo prefers a GENERAL track just like Wilma made in 2005.

A little known fact from a climatological perspective is that October is the month more tropical cyclones have hit South Florida than any other month even more than September. September holds the crown for the month with the most majors that have hit.

[TheStormExpert]

October has proven to be the most threatening month for at least the Florida peninsula with storms like Wilma in 2005 coming up from the Western Caribbean, hopefully our luck continues!

October is not the most threatening month to the Florida peninsula. That honor goes to September. What October does show IRT Florida is the most likely general climo storm track from the SW out of the Caribbean through the peninsula. N Central GOM still in play (ala Michael) but climo prefers a GENERAL track just like Wilma made in 2005.

A little known fact is that October is the month more tropical cyclones have hit South Florida than any other month even more than September. September holds the crown for the month with the most majors that have hit.

Yes, October sees the most tropical cyclones hit South Florida, but more intense storms like Andrew and the Labor Day hurricane hit in August and September. Still doesn’t mean we couldn’t see something like Irene from 1999, or Wilma but a major hurricane threat isn’t as common as the other two peak season months.

[Nuno]

I remember Michelle posed a very serious threat for SFL even in November.

[SFLcane]

October has proven to be the most threatening month for at least the Florida peninsula with storms like Wilma in 2005 coming up from the Western Caribbean, hopefully our luck continues!

October is not the most threatening month to the Florida peninsula. That honor goes to September. What October does show IRT Florida is the most likely general climo storm track from the SW out of the Caribbean through the peninsula. N Central GOM still in play (ala Michael) but climo prefers a GENERAL track just like Wilma made in 2005.

A little known fact from a climatological perspective is that October is the month more tropical cyclones have hit South Florida than any other month even more than September. September holds the crown for the month with the most majors that have hit.

First thing you want wanna consider is removing that invisible barrier we have around us. Can we get any more lucky?

[TheStormExpert]

October is not the most threatening month to the Florida peninsula. That honor goes to September. What October does show IRT Florida is the most likely general climo storm track from the SW out of the Caribbean through the peninsula. N Central GOM still in play (ala Michael) but climo prefers a GENERAL track just like Wilma made in 2005.

A little known fact from a climatological perspective is that October is the month more tropical cyclones have hit South Florida than any other month even more than September. September holds the crown for the month with the most majors that have hit.

First thing you want wanna consider is removing that invisible barrier we have around us. Can we get any more lucky?

Yeah no kidding!

One of these days man, just be prepared!

[TheStormExpert]

I remember Michelle posed a very serious threat for SFL even in November.

Typically you see tracks NE out of the Western Caribbean. Just where they eject northeast is key in determining if Florida is in the path. Like Wilma went over the Yucatán Peninsula before ejecting NE allowing South Florida to be in the trajectory, where as Michelle in 2001 ejected NE just south of the western tip of Cuba allowing Cuba and The Bahamas to be in its path.

[Shell Mound]

Interestingly, shear has actually been above average in the MDR since August yet below average in the Caribbean during the same timeframe. Yet the MDR ended up producing a major hurricane while the Caribbean has been mostly devoid of activity, let alone hurricanes. Overall, this has been a very weird season: bifurcation between the hostile MDR and conducive Caribbean, yet with the former ending up with more intense activity than the latter; extremely high NS totals paired with extremely low MH totals to date; pathetically low ACE for such prolific overall activity; and widespread landfalls from the Gulf to New England, somehow sparing peninsular Florida. We will likely ended up well into the Greek alphabet and still fall short of most forecasts’ projected seasonal ACE, even if Teddy ends up maintaining MH intensity for a while and one or two homegrown Caribbean majors develop later on, given that the MDR tends to produce the bulk of ACE via long-lived, CV-type major hurricanes during the peak months of August and September, whereas the late-season majors, however extreme in intensity (à la Mitch ‘98 or Wilma ‘05), tend to be shorter-lived. It’ll be awkward to see 2020 end with more than twenty-four named storms and an ACE index of less than 150, but that seems quite likely at this point in time.

[toad strangler]

October has proven to be the most threatening month for at least the Florida peninsula with storms like Wilma in 2005 coming up from the Western Caribbean, hopefully our luck continues!

October is not the most threatening month to the Florida peninsula. That honor goes to September. What October does show IRT Florida is the most likely general climo storm track from the SW out of the Caribbean through the peninsula. N Central GOM still in play (ala Michael) but climo prefers a GENERAL track just like Wilma made in 2005.

A little known fact from a climatological perspective is that October is the month more tropical cyclones have hit South Florida than any other month even more than September. September holds the crown for the month with the most majors that have hit.

Well I didn't have just SOUTH FL in mind. The peninsula is much larger and the context of what I was talking about in my earlier post. You guys shrunk that down, not me. Surprisingly, comprehensive data on landfalls from 1851 on the peninsula isn't easy to find. It is in regards to majors but not all hurricanes. I'd have to sink my teeth into that one.

[tolakram]

Interestingly, shear has actually been above average in the MDR since August yet below average in the Caribbean during the same timeframe. Yet the MDR ended up producing a major hurricane while the Caribbean has been mostly devoid of activity, let alone hurricanes. Overall, this has been a very weird season: bifurcation between the hostile MDR and conducive Caribbean, yet with the former ending up with more intense activity than the latter; extremely high NS totals paired with extremely low MH totals to date; pathetically low ACE for such prolific overall activity; and widespread landfalls from the Gulf to New England, somehow sparing peninsular Florida. We will likely ended up well into the Greek alphabet and still fall short of most forecasts’ projected seasonal ACE, even if Teddy ends up maintaining MH intensity for a while and one or two homegrown Caribbean majors develop later on, given that the MDR tends to produce the bulk of ACE via long-lived, CV-type major hurricanes during the peak months of August and September, whereas the late-season majors, however extreme in intensity (à la Mitch ‘98 or Wilma ‘05), tend to be shorter-lived. It’ll be awkward to see 2020 end with more than twenty-four named storms and an ACE index of less than 150, but that seems quite likely at this point in time.

Where are you pulling the shear data from?



source: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

I'm not sure what awkward means as far as ACE goes. You can have numerous rapid developing storms that hit land and make for a really bad season with low ACE. ACE is an interesting metric but far from the be all end all of hurricane season measurements.

[Shell Mound]

Interestingly, shear has actually been above average in the MDR since August yet below average in the Caribbean during the same timeframe. Yet the MDR ended up producing a major hurricane while the Caribbean has been mostly devoid of activity, let alone hurricanes. Overall, this has been a very weird season: bifurcation between the hostile MDR and conducive Caribbean, yet with the former ending up with more intense activity than the latter; extremely high NS totals paired with extremely low MH totals to date; pathetically low ACE for such prolific overall activity; and widespread landfalls from the Gulf to New England, somehow sparing peninsular Florida. We will likely ended up well into the Greek alphabet and still fall short of most forecasts’ projected seasonal ACE, even if Teddy ends up maintaining MH intensity for a while and one or two homegrown Caribbean majors develop later on, given that the MDR tends to produce the bulk of ACE via long-lived, CV-type major hurricanes during the peak months of August and September, whereas the late-season majors, however extreme in intensity (à la Mitch ‘98 or Wilma ‘05), tend to be shorter-lived. It’ll be awkward to see 2020 end with more than twenty-four named storms and an ACE index of less than 150, but that seems quite likely at this point in time.

Where are you pulling the shear data from?

https://i.imgur.com/0xVrI3v.png

source: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

I meant that VWS in the MDR was above average for about a month from mid-August through mid-September before dropping recently as Teddy arrived.

[CyclonicFury]

Interestingly, shear has actually been above average in the MDR since August yet below average in the Caribbean during the same timeframe. Yet the MDR ended up producing a major hurricane while the Caribbean has been mostly devoid of activity, let alone hurricanes. Overall, this has been a very weird season: bifurcation between the hostile MDR and conducive Caribbean, yet with the former ending up with more intense activity than the latter; extremely high NS totals paired with extremely low MH totals to date; pathetically low ACE for such prolific overall activity; and widespread landfalls from the Gulf to New England, somehow sparing peninsular Florida. We will likely ended up well into the Greek alphabet and still fall short of most forecasts’ projected seasonal ACE, even if Teddy ends up maintaining MH intensity for a while and one or two homegrown Caribbean majors develop later on, given that the MDR tends to produce the bulk of ACE via long-lived, CV-type major hurricanes during the peak months of August and September, whereas the late-season majors, however extreme in intensity (à la Mitch ‘98 or Wilma ‘05), tend to be shorter-lived. It’ll be awkward to see 2020 end with more than twenty-four named storms and an ACE index of less than 150, but that seems quite likely at this point in time.

Where are you pulling the shear data from?

https://i.imgur.com/0xVrI3v.png

source: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

There did appear to be a spike in late August through mid-September, which likely was a result of a TUTT related to Typhoon Maysak. That prevented Paulette and Rene from strengthening significantly over the MDR, and prevented the season from being even busier ACE wise. Still a very active season regardless.

[storminabox]

October has proven to be the most threatening month for at least the Florida peninsula with storms like Wilma in 2005 coming up from the Western Caribbean, hopefully our luck continues!

October is not the most threatening month to the Florida peninsula. That honor goes to September. What October does show IRT Florida is the most likely general climo storm track from the SW out of the Caribbean through the peninsula. N Central GOM still in play (ala Michael) but climo prefers a GENERAL track just like Wilma made in 2005.

A little known fact from a climatological perspective is that October is the month more tropical cyclones have hit South Florida than any other month even more than September. September holds the crown for the month with the most majors that have hit.

I would’ve never guessed that

[storminabox]

Interestingly, shear has actually been above average in the MDR since August yet below average in the Caribbean during the same timeframe. Yet the MDR ended up producing a major hurricane while the Caribbean has been mostly devoid of activity, let alone hurricanes. Overall, this has been a very weird season: bifurcation between the hostile MDR and conducive Caribbean, yet with the former ending up with more intense activity than the latter; extremely high NS totals paired with extremely low MH totals to date; pathetically low ACE for such prolific overall activity; and widespread landfalls from the Gulf to New England, somehow sparing peninsular Florida. We will likely ended up well into the Greek alphabet and still fall short of most forecasts’ projected seasonal ACE, even if Teddy ends up maintaining MH intensity for a while and one or two homegrown Caribbean majors develop later on, given that the MDR tends to produce the bulk of ACE via long-lived, CV-type major hurricanes during the peak months of August and September, whereas the late-season majors, however extreme in intensity (à la Mitch ‘98 or Wilma ‘05), tend to be shorter-lived. It’ll be awkward to see 2020 end with more than twenty-four named storms and an ACE index of less than 150, but that seems quite likely at this point in time.

Where are you pulling the shear data from?

https://i.imgur.com/0xVrI3v.png

source: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

There did appear to be a spike in late August through mid-September, which likely was a result of a TUTT related to Typhoon Maysak. That prevented Paulette and Rene from strengthening significantly over the MDR, and prevented the season from being even busier ACE wise. Still a very active season regardless.

Very interesting how one system at the other side of the world can have such a big impact on the Atlantic. Paulette/Rene May have become long-tracking majors if it wasn’t for that introduction of shear (Typhoon induced). The small things can make a big difference. Either way this season is ludicrous.

[aspen]

Interestingly, shear has actually been above average in the MDR since August yet below average in the Caribbean during the same timeframe. Yet the MDR ended up producing a major hurricane while the Caribbean has been mostly devoid of activity, let alone hurricanes. Overall, this has been a very weird season: bifurcation between the hostile MDR and conducive Caribbean, yet with the former ending up with more intense activity than the latter; extremely high NS totals paired with extremely low MH totals to date; pathetically low ACE for such prolific overall activity; and widespread landfalls from the Gulf to New England, somehow sparing peninsular Florida. We will likely ended up well into the Greek alphabet and still fall short of most forecasts’ projected seasonal ACE, even if Teddy ends up maintaining MH intensity for a while and one or two homegrown Caribbean majors develop later on, given that the MDR tends to produce the bulk of ACE via long-lived, CV-type major hurricanes during the peak months of August and September, whereas the late-season majors, however extreme in intensity (à la Mitch ‘98 or Wilma ‘05), tend to be shorter-lived. It’ll be awkward to see 2020 end with more than twenty-four named storms and an ACE index of less than 150, but that seems quite likely at this point in time.

Where are you pulling the shear data from?

https://i.imgur.com/0xVrI3v.png

source: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

There did appear to be a spike in late August through mid-September, which likely was a result of a TUTT related to Typhoon Maysak. That prevented Paulette and Rene from strengthening significantly over the MDR, and prevented the season from being even busier ACE wise. Still a very active season regardless.

I see that as the WPac’s attempt to muzzle the Atlantic and get ahead in the ACE race. It didn’t work very well; the Atlantic is around 10 units ahead and will be rapidly increasing thanks to Teddy. Maybe Wilfred will be a decent ACE generator if it’s able to become a hurricane, seeing that it’ll probably be stuck in the Gulf for a week.