Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

12z GFS develops another SW Caribbean system in 144 hours.

12z GFS loop

[fci]

The area that used to be 97L looks pretty good to me.
Outside of the swirl that Rina still has, it looks better on satellite than Rina.

[Chickenzilla]

12z GFS develops another SW Caribbean system in 144 hours.

12z GFS loop

I see 3 TCs there.
One which is regenerated Rina,one which pravels up the Gulf Stream and quickly becomes extratropical and one developing at the end of run near Nicaragua.

[cycloneye]

I thought this thread was not going to have more posting of runs until next April or May,but GFS is showing something on the long range.You know the drill on these long range runs.

11/3/11 12z GFS Loop

[Frank2]

Per the GFS, a low moves offshore the SE coast and remains out there for a few days:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php ... ion=us&t=l

[Macrocane]

I know it's the very long range but most of the models are developing a low in the western Caribbean in 6-7 days, the models with the longest range make the low a tropical cyclone, of course it may not verify but it's a sign that conditions will be favorable. The GFS at 276 hours and the Euro at 240 hours:

[NDG]

Crazy 0z GFS run, lol.

[RL3AO]

The "its not December" yet model run.

[cycloneye]

That 00z GFS run was aparently a bad feedback as the scenario it painted has not repeated in the 06z and 12z runs. What GFS continues to show is a EPAC development that ECMWF also has.



Uploaded by Imageshack.us

[xironman]

Maybe one last time for the T?

GFS



CMC



Euro

[Caribwxgirl]

All's nice and quiet

[tolakram]

Most models now show both an EPAC system and a central Atlantic system. Can't link to any image sites here at work, but check out my favorite model page and have a look.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[MGC]

That central Atlantic low looks to be becoming a bit better organized....next ATL Invest?...MGC

[Florida1118]

That central Atlantic low looks to be becoming a bit better organized....next ATL Invest?...MGC

Already at 10% -

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112236&hilit=

[tolakram]

The models are spinning something up 48 - 54 hours from now just NE of PR.

Current models link:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Current Shear (tendency):

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[wxman57]

Probably less of a chance of development than the last disturbance in the region.

[cycloneye]

What I am doing posting model runs on this thread dedicated to runs of tropical scenarios on late January? When I saw this I said, na,is Febuary so is not tropical,but it has been showing up in recent runs of GFS looking like a semi hybrid thing. And is long range so you know the drill about that.

[RL3AO]

Ah this thread...

[Florida1118]

It will be back and active in the blink of an eye. Its nearly February, so only a few more months to go before 2012 season comes to terrorize us.

[Stormcenter]

Maybe our Summer will be like our Winter has been......nice and mild.