2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Emmett_Brown]

Just going by how this season feels compared to years past; this season has echos of 1985. 1985 featured Elena (a fickle major cane that kept everyone guessing), and continued well into October and November with Juan and Kate in the GOM. While no two seasons are alike, it wouldn't surprise me to see another storm in the GOM before it's all wrapped up.

[chris_fit]

I don't recall the last time we had such beautiful, low humidity, cool weather in Tampa Area this early into fall. Feels really like fall for sure. Not a tropical environment at all. It was like a switch after Ian came through. My money is on see you next year, Hurricane Season. Definitely got our money's worth this year.

[Hammy]

Latest extended 45-day EPS looks poor for October

https://i.imgur.com/gxfutK1.png

For comparison, this was the extended version 20 days ago

https://i.imgur.com/NkCe0wa.png

I remember one from late August which showed almost nothing through early October

Well, now we know what kinds of CFS runs to disregard in future hurricane seasons for sure

That was actually the EPS 45 day run

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/JustinWx/status/1578122670083903494

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/JustinWx/status/1578122670083903494?t=mNLnVR4P9Kjp7woMSCggUA&s=19

Meaning...this season could feature activity last well into November?

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1575870405952253952

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/JustinWx/status/1578122670083903494?t=mNLnVR4P9Kjp7woMSCggUA&s=19

Meaning...this season could feature activity last well into November?

Not so sure on that personally, Julia is pretty much taking the same path Iota/Eta did to close the season in 2020 while 2021 was already dead by now. The ST Jet has already dropped over the Gulf, fronts are being forecast to drop as low as the NW Caribbean in the next couple of weeks and both the GFS/Euro are showing an incoming cold wave dropping temperature in the North Gulf into the low 40s. We might get something out of this in October but extending into November doesn't seem very likely imo.

[Teban54]

Looks like MJO will be rolling into the Caribbean by late October and early November, after passing through EPAC. This is one of the strongest MJO events this year so far.

Whether the Caribbean will be warm enough for activity remains to be seen. Another question is whether waves (or CAGs) will be far enough north.

[LarryWx]

https://i.postimg.cc/sg8P2DVn/twc-globe-mjo-vp200.png
Looks like MJO will be rolling into the Caribbean by late October and early November, after passing through EPAC. This is one of the strongest MJO events this year so far.

Whether the Caribbean will be warm enough for activity remains to be seen. Another question is whether waves (or CAGs) will be far enough north.

Just about the entire Caribbean averages 80+ well into November, especially during this era of warmer. Much of it, even the northern part, has been 82+ as of November 1st in most years during this warmer era. Non-SST factors control whether or not there's late activity.

[Category5Kaiju]

You know, for a season that started off very slow, it's quite impressive with how we have basically surpassed seasons such as 2000 and 2011 (that were heavily compared with this season earlier) in how this season has more storm retirement name locks than those years

[OuterBanker]

What seems to be missing this year is in close spin ups. Nothing off trough splits etc. It usually happens early in the season as strong fronts and warming waters off the seus and gom occurs. But nadaa this year. As we transition into the fall the same conditions occur but again nada. Although recent GFS models have been indicating off again, on again (todays 06 run) in close in the long range.

[USTropics]

What seems to be missing this year is in close spin ups. Nothing off trough splits etc. It usually happens early in the season as strong fronts and warming waters off the seus and gom occurs. But nadaa this year. As we transition into the fall the same conditions occur but again nada. Although recent GFS models have been indicating off again, on again (todays 06 run) in close in the long range.

We had a few invests in the early part of the season that attempted to form on the tail end of troughs in the WGOM/BOC and got right up to the cusp of development. Proximity to land ultimately prohibited it, but in past seasons just a few more miles off coast those would have developed. With a strong MJO pulse pushing through the basin in about 2-3 weeks, I would anticipate some type of CAG action; given La Nina conditions, orientation of the monsoonal flow would be favored in the Caribbean (versus the EPAC). The fronts are beginning to dig a bit deeper and becoming more progressive as we get into Fall as well, and given the current SSTA configuration, would expect models begin showing some hybrid systems forming off of the east coast.

[weeniepatrol]

Sorry if this is the wrong topic. Please move my post if need be

 https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/1579811086915600384

[LarryWx]

I don't know if this is the best topic in which to post this:

There have been 13 seasons since 1995 that are like 2022 with either a current or oncoming La Niña. Out of these 13, only two (1995 and 2000) didn't have at least one more TC with genesis Oct 22+ for which there were significant land effects in the western basin. Oct 22 is still 11 days out, well beyond a reliable period for models. So, though far from a guarantee, the betting odds pretty heavily favor one more system in 2022 that we're currently totally unaware of that will generate a good amount of discussion within tropical wx forums in late October and/or November. (This is not counting the current SW Gulf Invest 93L).

[Teban54]

I don't know if this is the best topic in which to post this:

There have been 13 seasons since 1995 that are like 2022 with either a current or oncoming La Niña. Out of these 13, only two (1995 and 2000) didn't have at least one more TC with genesis Oct 22+ for which there were significant land effects in the western basin. Oct 22 is still 11 days out, well beyond a reliable period for models. So, though far from a guarantee, the betting odds pretty heavily favor one more system in 2022 that we're currently totally unaware of that will generate a good amount of discussion within tropical wx forums in late October and/or November. (This is not counting the current SW Gulf Invest 93L).

Did you forget 2021, or did you consider impacts made by Wanda's precursor noreaster to be associated with the storm?

Edit: Meant "forget", not "not forget"

[LarryWx]

I don't know if this is the best topic in which to post this:

There have been 13 seasons since 1995 that are like 2022 with either a current or oncoming La Niña. Out of these 13, only two (1995 and 2000) didn't have at least one more TC with genesis Oct 22+ for which there were significant land effects in the western basin. Oct 22 is still 11 days out, well beyond a reliable period for models. So, though far from a guarantee, the betting odds pretty heavily favor one more system in 2022 that we're currently totally unaware of that will generate a good amount of discussion within tropical wx forums in late October and/or November. (This is not counting the current SW Gulf Invest 93L).

Did you not forget 2021, or did you consider impacts made by Wanda's precursor noreaster to be associated with the storm?

Excellent! For 2021, I did count the powerful precursor to Wanda that was Invest 94L from the start and resulted in a very strong nor'easter in the NE US that generated plenty of discussion here:

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... ilit=Wanda

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/October ... r%27easter

"At the height of the nor'easter, the storm left over 617,000 customers without electrical power in the Northeastern United States,[3][1][4] and the storm killed at least two people.[5][6] Damage from the nor'easter is estimated to have exceeded $200 million (2021 USD)."

[Category5Kaiju]

I don't know if this is the best topic in which to post this:

There have been 13 seasons since 1995 that are like 2022 with either a current or oncoming La Niña. Out of these 13, only two (1995 and 2000) didn't have at least one more TC with genesis Oct 22+ for which there were significant land effects in the western basin. Oct 22 is still 11 days out, well beyond a reliable period for models. So, though far from a guarantee, the betting odds pretty heavily favor one more system in 2022 that we're currently totally unaware of that will generate a good amount of discussion within tropical wx forums in late October and/or November. (This is not counting the current SW Gulf Invest 93L).

Did you not forget 2021, or did you consider impacts made by Wanda's precursor noreaster to be associated with the storm?

Excellent! For 2021, I did count the powerful precursor to Wanda that was Invest 94L from the start and resulted in a very strong nor'easter in the NE US that generated plenty of discussion here:

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... ilit=Wanda

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/October ... r%27easter

"At the height of the nor'easter, the storm left over 617,000 customers without electrical power in the Northeastern United States,[3][1][4] and the storm killed at least two people.[5][6] Damage from the nor'easter is estimated to have exceeded $200 million (2021 USD)."

And judging by every year since 2016, the L or M storm ended up being a major hurricane interestingly. So if you wanted to bet, Lisa or Martin may be that storm.

[aspen]

2022 became another noteworthy example about how a slow season can turn itself around in terms of activity and become extremely impactful. We’re at just half the NS total of 2021 at this point, but we’ve seen up to three systems worthy of retirement, including the strongest post-tropical Canadian landfall and the deadliest Florida hurricane since the Labor Day storm. This season so far has had a higher death toll than 2021, possibly a higher damage total than 2020, and the highest ACE per storm since 2019. While 2022 will go down as a bust when it comes to the hyper-aggressive forecast numbers, it’s hard to call something with a 70+ ACE September and >$50 billion in damages a bust year overall.

I have a feeling 2022 will really change how a lot of people — including me — will look at future seasons. It could also change how official agencies look at certain pre-seasonal indicators for their forecasts, including subtropical warmth/Atlantic marine heatwaves, the possibility of rampant mid-level dry air, and the impacts of 3rd-year Ninas. The Tonga eruption could get factored into next year’s forecasts; this active September doesn’t disprove the theories about it impacting global weather patterns, and it’s still possible a butterfly effect from its SHem tropospheric cooling helped fuel the Marine Heatwave, based on descriptions in a summer 2022 article about the eruption’s possible long-term impacts (the predicted displaced high is similar to this summer’s displaced high that led to the broiling mid-latitudes and wave-breaking, until Danielle and Earl sucked up some of the warmth from up there).

[LarryWx]

From CSU's two week update issued today:

"As the enhanced convection shifts slightly to the east over the two weeks, shear conditions may become more favorable for Caribbean tropical cyclone development late this month."

During the 13 oncoming or current La Niña seasons since 1995, there have been these storms form in the Caribbean from late Oct through Nov that ended up having significant impact on land areas:

2020: Zeta, Eta, and Iota
2017: Philippe
2016: Otto
2011: Rina
2009: Ida
2008: Paloma
2007: Noel
2005: Beta
1999: Lenny
1998: Mitch

These involved 10 of the 13 or over 75% (edited to add Philippe of 2017 and Rina of 2011) of the La Niña seasons since 1995.

[WiscoWx02]

Models show nothing for anticyclonic development and the ensembles are pretty dead, but this means NOTHING. Models showed nothing until Julia was two-three days from forming as a more recent example. Also it is kind of hard to ignore the fact that 10 out of the 13 La Nina years since 1995 have had impactful storms. You also have to factor that 2010 has Hurricane Thomas which hit the Leeward Islands in November. So that's 11 out of 13 La Nina seasons where something has happened in October or November right there....that's 84.61% of the time! Last year, 2021, where no big storms formed in the Caribbean Sea was honestly an outlier by many means. But, as Teban54 and LarryWx said, Wanda or the precursor of Wanda was quite impactful too. So if you wanted to add Wanda to that list then 12 out of 13 have had some land impacts in October and November for storms that were or would go to be tropical cyclones. 92.31% of the time! So IMO, we probably aren't done. We are just in an intra-seasonal lull. Models showing nothing is nowcasting IMO as well. For me personally, I think one more system in the Caribbean Sea is in order as well as a system in the subtropical Atlantic. Could be a bullish forecast but from a statistics standpoint...kinda hard to believe the season is over.