2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[NDG]

One thing that is different so far this spring compared to the same time in 2013 is that it has been wetter from the Caribbean into northern S.A. through the equatorial Atlantic.

[Ntxw]

If I can recall, dry air was very much of an inhibitor last year, mostly during July as tropical waves from West Africa continually failed to develop. I am wondering how much of an issue SAL will be this season, as it is difficult to predict.

Plenty of sal out there.

[img]
Is that above normal for this time of the year?

Up till about late June and early July having lots of SAL everywhere is pretty typical. Once you see SAL in August is when it's out of the norm.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Plenty of sal out there.

[img]
Is that above normal for this time of the year?

Up till about late June and early July having lots of SAL everywhere is pretty typical. Once you see SAL in August is when it's out of the norm.

Thanks for the information. I am still a novice when it comes to this stuff.

[WeatherEmperor]

Have you guys had a chance to read the TWC's updated forecast calling for 14 named storms now? At the end it says and I quote: "The historically-strong negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) event in May would suggest further warming of the North Atlantic sea surface temperaturs, which is a bullish factor that may cause future forecast numbers to increase a bit". We have discussed negative vs positive NAO for several years on Storm2K and what it ultimately means for the overall steering pattern in the Atlantic. Anybody feel free to correct me if I am wrong...but typically during - NAO events there is more persistent troffing off the US east coast and during a + NAO there is more ridging off the US east coast. TWC's article also briefly mentions the hyperactive 2010 season where we had 19 named storms with 12 hurricanes...but only 2 weak tropical storms (Bonnie, Hermine) affected the US. The 2010 season featured a - NAO event and I remember a lot of people including pro-mets allude to a weaker ridge and more trofs recurving all the Cape Verde systems out to sea.

So the question becomes...if the historically strong - NAO event observed in May so far could persist and increase the overall activity in the ATL basin...could we end up with a season closer to 2010 where just about everything re-curves out to sea?

I totally understand that it is all about location and timing where systems can sneak under a ridge and hit the US and whatnot but if the - NAO is strong enough and persistent enough...wouldn't you all agree that the highest likelihood is for systems to re-curve into the open Atlantic? If not, please give your thoughts

SOURCE: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... ompany-may

[Hurricaneman]

That warm horseshoe in the Atlantic is classic in for bigger seasons like we saw in 2004 or 2005 but based on other factors a season like 2004 can't be ruled out and is a very serious analog, 2005 I believe should never be used as an analog for number of storms but tracks may be very similar so I will give my top analogs as follows

2004, 2012, 2014, 1969 and 1979

[GeneratorPower]

That warm horseshoe in the Atlantic is classic in for bigger seasons like we saw in 2004 or 2005 but based on other factors a season like 2004 can't be ruled out and is a very serious analog, 2005 I believe should never be used as an analog for number of storms but tracks may be very similar so I will give my top analogs as follows

2004, 2012, 2014, 1969 and 1979

2005 is a perfectly legitimate analog for upcoming seasons, provided they have similar conditions. There is no reason to say "never use this as an analog". There is plenty of evidence, in what limited historical record we have, to support seasons like 2005 occurring in the past.

[GeneratorPower]

Do you remember after 2004, when many major forecasters were calling for 2005 to be near-normal to above-normal, but quote "nothing like the level we saw in 2004"? Meteorologists through May 2005 were still calling for a tamer season than 2004, only to be rudely surprised. This proves the inherent difficulty in predicting overall activity levels.

[TheStormExpert]

Do you remember after 2004, when many major forecasters were calling for 2005 to be near-normal to above-normal, but quote "nothing like the level we saw in 2004"? Meteorologists through May 2005 were still calling for a tamer season than 2004, only to be rudely surprised. This proves the inherent difficulty in predicting overall activity levels.

You have to remember though that this was 12 years ago when forecasters and experts were more likely to make errors due to weather technology not being as advanced as it supposedly is now.

[TheStormExpert]

That warm horseshoe in the Atlantic is classic in for bigger seasons like we saw in 2004 or 2005 but based on other factors a season like 2004 can't be ruled out and is a very serious analog, 2005 I believe should never be used as an analog for number of storms but tracks may be very similar so I will give my top analogs as follows

2004, 2012, 2014, 1969 and 1979

2005 is a perfectly legitimate analog for upcoming seasons, provided they have similar conditions. There is no reason to say "never use this as an analog". There is plenty of evidence, in what limited historical record we have, to support seasons like 2005 occurring in the past.

Yes it is a perfectly legitimate analog in terms of potential storm tracks only.

[Ntxw]

There's nothing wrong with using 2005 as an analog, if warranted and conditions are basically clear of it. You are talking an extreme season, so likely the seasons leading up to it (1998-2004)could be quite active. Now thats a different story than having 2005 brought up every season for similarities, then it loses credibility.

Actually if you think about 2002-2004 were very active despite a couple of Ninos and a warm neutral leading up to 05. The Atlantic had plans otherwise Pacific or no Pacific

[GeneratorPower]

Do you remember after 2004, when many major forecasters were calling for 2005 to be near-normal to above-normal, but quote "nothing like the level we saw in 2004"? Meteorologists through May 2005 were still calling for a tamer season than 2004, only to be rudely surprised. This proves the inherent difficulty in predicting overall activity levels.

You have to remember though that this was 12 years ago when forecasters and experts were more likely to make errors due to weather technology not being as advanced as it supposedly is now.

I think it is a mistake to assume seasonal forecasting has improved. It hasn't significantly improved. There is a general feeling amongst the populace that because we have such advanced iPhones and other technology, that of course, weather forecasting has likewise improved. Not the case.

[weathaguyry]

While I do not think we will see a hyperactive season like 2005, we cannot completely discount it as an analog, just because it was hyperactive, I agree that we have little skill forecasting hyperactive seasons, so we cannot know for sure if a season will or will not be hyperactive, unless obvious conditions prevail that would point towards one way or another, none of which existed in 2004 and 2005

[Yellow Evan]

1932, 2004, and 1886 were all seasons with multiple landfall/destructive storms, and each of those 3 years were followed by 1887, 1933, and 2005, so I'd say a 2005-esque conditions would be somewhat easy to spot in advance, given that I'd suspect there'd be such a strong signal in global modelling given the uniqueness of those three seasons, plus we would have had a very destructive season a year in advance, and it would be something that happens once every +AMO cycle.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/867524416615403520




Wasn't sure where to put this. Move it to another location mods if it should be somewhere else. Just thought it would interest some people.

[gatorcane]

The waves over Africa look quite vigorous already:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/867524416615403520




Wasn't sure where to put this. Move it to another location mods if it should be somewhere else. Just thought it would interest some people.

Moved your post to this thread.

[weathaguyry]

The waves over Africa look quite vigorous already:

Wow! That's quite impressive for May!

[AutoPenalti]

[Hammy]

The Atlantic looks quite moist for this time of year.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/867730061432164352