Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

[ROCK]

we got to have something to talk about or we wouldnt be in this forum.....

[Ed Mahmoud]

we got to have something to talk about or we wouldnt be in this forum.....

A shade over 3 months to Houston/SE Texas SNOW MIRACLE season.

Remember December 10th.


I'll go check the AccuWx PPV Japanese model...


A bit of a wave at hour 96, a definite bend to an isobar, with 24 hour rainfalls near/East of the wave .75, in some cases, in excess of 1 inch.

No closed lows in the Gulf, per JMA, next 8 days.

[Ivanhater]

If something does get in the gulf...

[ROCK]

we got to have something to talk about or we wouldnt be in this forum.....

A shade over 3 months to Houston/SE Texas SNOW MIRACLE season.

Remember December 10th.


I'll go check the AccuWx PPV Japanese model...


A bit of a wave at hour 96, a definite bend to an isobar, with 24 hour rainfalls near/East of the wave .75, in some cases, in excess of 1 inch.

No closed lows in the Gulf, per JMA, next 8 days.

what about day 9? you never know....

[ROCK]

If something does get in the gulf...

agree Ivan, the GOM is running well above 05 ssts.....

[southerngale]

You know things are slow in the tropics when the "highlights" are an invest (not a TD or better) that is days and days from any land mass and a phantom low that some models are
predicting to form in the GOM early next week.

Actually, things were slow in the tropics a few days ago, last week, etc. There's actually some disturbances out there now and the board has picked up quite a bit. Come back when there's 30 people online, then you can say that.

[Stormcenter]

Fortunately water temps are only part of the equation for development.

If something does get in the gulf...

agree Ivan, the GOM is running well above 05 ssts.....

[Ed Mahmoud]

If something does get in the gulf...

agree Ivan, the GOM is running well above 05 ssts.....

Water was delightful. I caught a striper on freshly dead shrimp after just a few minutes in the surf by the remains of Popo's summer house. Turned the rod over to my wife and kids, but they were scared to walk out to the sand bar beyond the deep water, and caught little mullet looking fish. I decided to drink beer, and not fish. Than yesyerday, I cleaned my fish, soaked it in Italian dressing and lemon pepper, and grilled it. I didn't trust myself not to cut myself, as I'm not a professional fish cleaner and had a few beers first waiting for the Nascar race that rained out, so it was a matter of picking fish meat off the bones. OK tasting, but more work than I like. Also chicken and fajita beef.


Talks in the family about chipping in to rebuild, his land is behind the vegetation line.

One house, the stairs to the deck are gone, and some of the Hardy plank or wood boards stripped off the exterior, but no window or obvious structural damage, should be an easy repair, except it is clearly beyond the new vegetation line.

Still some collapsed houses that haven't been bulldozed away yet, 11 months after the fact. And the fishing piers haven't been fixed yet.

[ROCK]

If something does get in the gulf...

agree Ivan, the GOM is running well above 05 ssts.....

Water was delightful. I caught a striper on freshly dead shrimp after just a few minutes in the surf by the remains of Popo's summer house. Turned the rod over to my wife and kids, but they were scared to walk out to the sand bar beyond the deep water, and caught little mullet looking fish. I decided to drink beer, and not fish. Than yesyerday, I cleaned my fish, soaked it in Italian dressing and lemon pepper, and grilled it. I didn't trust myself not to cut myself, as I'm not a professional fish cleaner and had a few beers first waiting for the Nascar race that rained out, so it was a matter of picking fish meat off the bones. OK tasting, but more work than I like. Also chicken and fajita beef.


Talks in the family about chipping in to rebuild, his land is behind the vegetation line.

One house, the stairs to the deck are gone, and some of the Hardy plank or wood boards stripped off the exterior, but no window or obvious structural damage, should be an easy repair, except it is clearly beyond the new vegetation line.

Still some collapsed houses that haven't been bulldozed away yet, 11 months after the fact. And the fishing piers haven't been fixed yet.

I hear you ED....my parents live on the west end, retired....still beat up in some parts. Surfside still doesnt have the beach road fixed yet......stay away from the hardheards they have poison in their fins......

sorry OT....

[Pearl River]

If you get stuck by a hardhead just rub some of it's slime on the entry wound!

We need to catch up on the rain over here. Still below normal.

Slidell AFD:

AS WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING IN THE MODELS AND ON SATELLITE...A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CURVATURE LOCATED NEAR
46W WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST INTO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
THIS WEEKEND WITH A NORTHERN EXTENSION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. AFTER A
RELATIVELY DRIER PERIOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THIS FEATURE AND FINE TUNE THE POPS
AND TIMING OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

[Dean4Storms]

I was 60nm south of P'Cola over the weekend fishing and the surface water temps were running 88 degree's. Don't know how deep the warm water goes, but the surface felt like bath water!

[LaBreeze]

If something does get in the gulf...

It almost looks like a huge oil spill coming out of the Mississippi River. Wow, that's some hot water

[SEASON_CANCELED]

If something does get in the gulf...

It almost looks like a huge oil spill coming out of the Mississippi River. Wow, that's some hot water

woooooooooooooow. You would think the mississippi runoff would cool the delta off a bit and expect the warmer waters to be on the tampa side. Thats Cat 3 water. Good times

[rrm]

any possibility this makes it to texas and what do you think it would be?

[Ed Mahmoud]

any possibility this makes it to texas and what do you think it would be?

Possibility of the nothing making it to Texas?


I'd say a fair chance of nothing making it to Texas.

[southerngale]

any possibility this makes it to texas and what do you think it would be?

Possibility of the nothing making it to Texas?


I'd say a fair chance of nothing making it to Texas.

Geez, Ed. The member has 6 posts. Maybe you could be a little nicer and informative when answering the post or just don't respond at all.

[chris1985]

any possibility this makes it to texas and what do you think it would be?

Possibility of the nothing making it to Texas?


I'd say a fair chance of nothing making it to Texas.

Geez, Ed. The member has 6 posts. Maybe you could be a little nicer and informative when answering the post or just don't respond at all.

This is why I don't post much since I joined. Seeing responses like that easily makes one not want to throw 2 cents in or ask a question on the forums.

[SETXWXLADY]

There may be a chance of something coming to Texas. Not sure of the time though. The 00z GFS shows a little something coming into SETX friday. It was what looked stronger, I think, anyway it had it turning light blue right off the coast but now back to just green. Not sure how to read the models. Lol. I'm hoping the green means just rain.

Then the 00z Nogaps shoots what looks like 99L through the Yucatan channel on the 18th. And the 00z CMC shows a low coming on shore in SETX on the 18th. Of course this could all change and probably will a million times. I wish I could figure out how to post a pic. But I'll try to link the CMC.

http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_240_e.html

If you keep clicking previous you can see where the low comes from.

[srainhoutx]

I'll bump this up with the continued "possiblity" of some wave action as well as the recent GFDL run showing a "hint" of a closed low in the FL Straits heading NW into the GOM. Guidance (ECMWF) bring this wave axis into the NW GOM, while the GFS suggests moree toward FL. We shall see.

[N2Storms]

[quote="srainhoutx"]I'll bump this up with the continued "possiblity" of some wave action as well as the recent GFDL run showing a "hint" of a closed low in the FL Straits heading NW into the GOM. Guidance (ECMWF) bring this wave axis into the NW GOM, while the GFS suggests moree toward FL. We shall see. [/quote]


Yeah, I don't really think we're going to see much in the way of a closed low in the GOM...this is what today's Tallahassee NWS AFD has to say about our forecast...I assume that they are referring to the "closed low" in the FL Straits


...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOCAL AREA AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS.