2014 EPAC Season

[Hurricane Jed]

Since reliable records began in 1966, there was Ava in 1973 and then nothing til 94. Cat 5's occurred in 97, 02, 06 (If you count the CPAC's Ioke), 09 and 10. I'd say since 94 the average would be closer to every 3-5 years the basin gets a Category 5 hurricane. With 94, 97 and 02 it seems to be a tendency of them occurring in clusters as those years had 2 or more Category 5 hurricanes.

Basically your stats say they most likely occur, if not exclusively, during El Nino. All of those years you listed (using ONI) were either during El Nino or the immedate season following an El Nino (73, 10) both occurring early in the season as residual Nino was fading.

80's were a bit of an oddball. 80-89 had more TC's than any other decade for the EPAC yet no Cat 5's despite a powerful El Nino 82-83

[Yellow Evan]

Since reliable records began in 1966, there was Ava in 1973 and then nothing til 94. Cat 5's occurred in 97, 02, 06 (If you count the CPAC's Ioke), 09 and 10. I'd say since 94 the average would be closer to every 3-5 years the basin gets a Category 5 hurricane. With 94, 97 and 02 it seems to be a tendency of them occurring in clusters as those years had 2 or more Category 5 hurricanes.

Basically your stats say they most likely occur, if not exclusively, during El Nino. All of those years you listed (using ONI) were either during El Nino or the immedate season following an El Nino (73, 10) both occurring early in the season as residual Nino was fading.

80's were a bit of an oddball. 80-89 had more TC's than any other decade for the EPAC yet no Cat 5's despite a powerful El Nino 82-83

The gap from 73-94 is a bid odd and I believe there are a few Cat 5's that are out there but their intensity was underestimated for varous reasons (most storm's back then seem to plateau at around 120-125 knots).

[Kingarabian]

Yall think that Hawaii will finally get a Hurricane after 22 years?

[Yellow Evan]

Yall think that Hawaii will finally get a Hurricane after 22 years?

Possible IMO, but not likely until multidecadal PDO goes positive.

[cycloneye]

Yall think that Hawaii will finally get a Hurricane after 22 years?

Possible IMO, but not likely until multidecadal PDO goes positive.

FYI,the PDO turned positive in January when it was at +30. The Febuary update was up to +38.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Yellow Evan]

Yall think that Hawaii will finally get a Hurricane after 22 years?

Possible IMO, but not likely until multidecadal PDO goes positive.

FYI,the PDO turned positive in January when it was at +30. The Febuary update was up to +38.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Well, for the majority of the time since 2006, PDO has been negative. Until that changes (it may be starting to change, but IMO is to soon to tell if if it will be positive long term), I do not think Hawaii is going to see a hurricane, thought Dot 59 did make landfall in Hawaii during a negative PDO era.

[CaliforniaResident]

What if an EPAC hurricane were to strike.............CALIFORNIA?
This place is totally not built to handle heavy torrential rain and wind. I know some of you will say its impossible but if this El Nino turns out to be super strong, it's conceivable that a hurricane could strike the Southern California coast as a low category 1.

Native Californians yawn at earthquakes under 6.5 and just go about with their day after the ground moves under their feet but when water falls out of the sky, it's "OMG!" Just a few light showers will cause many with long commutes to call in sick and the "rain" is the talk of the town for days afterwards. L.A got just a little bit over 3 inches total of rain in all of 2013. When we had 4 inches of rain and one small thunderstorm in 3 days at the end of February, it was nonstop news coverage and practically everyone stayed in their homes. I can't imagine the responses and damages that would be caused by a real hurricane here.

[Kingarabian]

Well, for the majority of the time since 2006, PDO has been negative. Until that changes (it may be starting to change, but IMO is to soon to tell if if it will be positive long term), I do not think Hawaii is going to see a hurricane, thought Dot 59 did make landfall in Hawaii during a negative PDO era.

I was looking at the 92 season and that PDO was as warm as it gets. So far we have back to back warm PDO readings. Gonna need it to continue get warmer.

[Yellow Evan]

What if an EPAC hurricane were to strike.............CALIFORNIA?
This place is totally not built to handle heavy torrential rain and wind. I know some of you will say its impossible but if this El Nino turns out to be super strong, it's conceivable that a hurricane could strike the Southern California coast as a low category 1.

Native Californians yawn at earthquakes under 6.5 and just go about with their day after the ground moves under their feet but when water falls out of the sky, it's "OMG!" Just a few light showers will cause many with long commutes to call in sick and the "rain" is the talk of the town for days afterwards. L.A got just a little bit over 3 inches total of rain in all of 2013. When we had 4 inches of rain and one small thunderstorm in 3 days at the end of February, it was nonstop news coverage and practically everyone stayed in their homes. I can't imagine the responses and damages that would be caused by a real hurricane here.

I don't think this El Nino if it happens will be super strong.

And even if that happened, the waters may be too cold still for a hurricane to strike Southern California as a Cat 1 IMO (only time it happened was 1858). Never say never, but I will say that the odds of it happening are less than the odds of it not happening.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CaliforniaResident]

What if an EPAC hurricane were to strike.............CALIFORNIA?
This place is totally not built to handle heavy torrential rain and wind. I know some of you will say its impossible but if this El Nino turns out to be super strong, it's conceivable that a hurricane could strike the Southern California coast as a low category 1.

Native Californians yawn at earthquakes under 6.5 and just go about with their day after the ground moves under their feet but when water falls out of the sky, it's "OMG!" Just a few light showers will cause many with long commutes to call in sick and the "rain" is the talk of the town for days afterwards. L.A got just a little bit over 3 inches total of rain in all of 2013. When we had 4 inches of rain and one small thunderstorm in 3 days at the end of February, it was nonstop news coverage and practically everyone stayed in their homes. I can't imagine the responses and damages that would be caused by a real hurricane here.

I don't think this El Nino if it happens will be super strong.

And even if that happened, the waters may be too cold still for a hurricane to strike Southern California as a Cat 1 IMO (only time it happened was 1858). Never say never, but I will say that the odds of it happening are less than the odds of it not happening.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I know it's probably extremely unlikely. A hurricane making landfall in Southern California is probably 1 in 100-500 year event but I'm trying to imagine the havoc it would cause if it did happen. You ought to see the "storm watch" coverage in LA over a quarter of an inch of rain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBlDU8e7om0

In contrast, there was a 4.7 quake this morning and it was only briefly mentioned for about 2 minutes on the news.

These get all dramatic over the tiniest bit of weather but the ground moving beneath their feet doesn't even get them out of bed.

[euro6208]

I know it's probably extremely unlikely. A hurricane making landfall in Southern California is probably 1 in 100-500 year event but I'm trying to imagine the havoc it would cause if it did happen. You ought to see the "storm watch" coverage in LA over a quarter of an inch of rain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBlDU8e7om0

In contrast, there was a 4.7 quake this morning and it was only briefly mentioned for about 2 minutes on the news.

These get all dramatic over the tiniest bit of weather but the ground moving beneath their feet doesn't even get them out of bed.

that video made me laugh

[Yellow Evan]

What if an EPAC hurricane were to strike.............CALIFORNIA?
This place is totally not built to handle heavy torrential rain and wind. I know some of you will say its impossible but if this El Nino turns out to be super strong, it's conceivable that a hurricane could strike the Southern California coast as a low category 1.

Native Californians yawn at earthquakes under 6.5 and just go about with their day after the ground moves under their feet but when water falls out of the sky, it's "OMG!" Just a few light showers will cause many with long commutes to call in sick and the "rain" is the talk of the town for days afterwards. L.A got just a little bit over 3 inches total of rain in all of 2013. When we had 4 inches of rain and one small thunderstorm in 3 days at the end of February, it was nonstop news coverage and practically everyone stayed in their homes. I can't imagine the responses and damages that would be caused by a real hurricane here.

I don't think this El Nino if it happens will be super strong.

And even if that happened, the waters may be too cold still for a hurricane to strike Southern California as a Cat 1 IMO (only time it happened was 1858). Never say never, but I will say that the odds of it happening are less than the odds of it not happening.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I know it's probably extremely unlikely. A hurricane making landfall in Southern California is probably 1 in 100-500 year event but I'm trying to imagine the havoc it would cause if it did happen. You ought to see the "storm watch" coverage in LA over a quarter of an inch of rain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBlDU8e7om0

In contrast, there was a 4.7 quake this morning and it was only briefly mentioned for about 2 minutes on the news.

These get all dramatic over the tiniest bit of weather but the ground moving beneath their feet doesn't even get them out of bed.

That's the media for you

If a hurricane did hit CA, the biggest threat would be rain IMO, and I think that's pretty well documented.

[CrazyC83]

If there is any year in this generation that a significant TC could happen in California, IMO 2014 is it. The EPAC should definitely be on higher alert this year (and, as an extension, the CPAC/Hawaii).

[CaliforniaResident]

If there is any year in this generation that a significant TC could happen in California, IMO 2014 is it. The EPAC should definitely be on higher alert this year (and, as an extension, the CPAC/Hawaii).

[Kingarabian]

The GFS spawned quiet a few phantom storms hitting California last year.

But in reality, we're all reaching right now.

Keep your eyes posted on the ENSO thread. The stronger the Nino is, the higher the chance. Keep in mind though, if we get a Modoki El-Nino, forget about an active EPAC season... much less a cane' hitting SoCal.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

[Yellow Evan]

The GFS spawned quiet a few phantom storms hitting California last year.

But in reality, we're all reaching right now.

Keep your eyes posted on the ENSO thread. The stronger the Nino is, the higher the chance. Keep in mind though, if we get a Modoki El-Nino, forget about an active EPAC season... much less a cane' hitting SoCal.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

Modoki's are overrated.

Look at 2009, though that did not start out as a Modoki. 2006 was active, yet still a modoki. Ditto with 2002.

As TA said in the ENSO thread, a Modoki just leaders to increased shear over the EPAC as well (since the warm water pool is further west). Granted, conditions are IMO still more favorable than normal, and doesn't the increased number of Kelvin waves in an El Nino lead to more TC's?

[Kingarabian]

The GFS spawned quiet a few phantom storms hitting California last year.

But in reality, we're all reaching right now.

Keep your eyes posted on the ENSO thread. The stronger the Nino is, the higher the chance. Keep in mind though, if we get a Modoki El-Nino, forget about an active EPAC season... much less a cane' hitting SoCal.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

Modoki's are overrated.

Look at 2009, though that did not start out as a Modoki. 2006 was active, yet still a modoki. Ditto with 2002.

As TA said in the ENSO thread, a Modoki just leaders to increased shear over the EPAC as well (since the warm water pool is further west). Granted, conditions are IMO still more favorable than normal, and doesn't the increased number of Kelvin waves in an El Nino lead to more TC's?

I agree they're overrated in a sense...

But considering that it's hard for California to get a Hurricane despite strong El-Nino's in the past, a Modoki wouldn't really help.

[dexterlabio]

I doubt if the brewing El Nino this year will be central-based. Modoki El Nino's in the past (except 2009-2010) were weak. Whatever is going on in the Pacific right now tells me that this won't be just a weak El Nino. I think it could be as strong as the 2009 event, at least.

[Yellow Evan]

I doubt if the brewing El Nino this year will be central-based. Modoki El Nino's in the past (except 2009-2010) were weak. Whatever is going on in the Pacific right now tells me that this won't be just a weak El Nino. I think it could be as strong as the 2009 event, at least.

I doubt it to, but 1991-92 and 1994-95 were Modokis I thought and turned out to be quite active.

[Yellow Evan]

FYI, per the ENSO thread, ENSO is +0.1, so warm neutral. A jump of 0.5 in a week. Dare I say it, but this is somewhat similar to 1997. (see graphics on ENSO thread)

Ill do a bit of a summary of 1997 below:

19 named storms (a lot, but for comparison, last year there were 20)

Strongest EPAC storm on record (Linda)

What was prior to 2011, what I recognized as the costliest EPAC storm on record (Pauline, though damage total was actually $500 mil, though if it occurred today, it would probs be higher)

The most recent hurricane on Baja California Norte (the northern part of the Peninsula) and the most recent storm to move into the SW US as a TS (Nora).

Two CPHC AOR storms (both which became super typhoons)

1 central America landfall, in addition to 4 MX landfalls.

2 Cat 5's (Linda and Guillermo).

So, what does this mean? I'm not saying we will get a 1997 repeat, but it gives a good idea on what to expect if we get a super El Nino. Also of note, there were the analogs Levi came up with for the ATL (1957,1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1986, 1991, 1994, 2002, and 2009). Applying these same analogs to the EPAC, I will say that 1957, 1968, and 1972 intrigue me the most. All were during the the inactive era, and all turned out to relatively solid. 1972 was the strongest El Nino of these, though it's number were just 14-8-4 (nothing to brag about, though it had a few neat storms, and some storms may be missing). 1968 had 20 storms, and 1957 had a Cat 4 into Mazatlan and a near-landfall for Hawaii. Granted, I have no clue whether these were Modoki's or not.

Looking at all these seasons Levi used as ATL analogs, all of them IMO had something interesting. In conclusions, I think it's pretty likely that something at least somewhat historic will happen this season.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.