Possible weak development east of FL this week? (Is 92L)

[NDG]

Shocked that the NHC had no mention of this on their latest TWO.

[tropicwatch]

A little increase in vorticity this morning with this system.

[tropicwatch]

Looking pretty good this morning.Visible Loop

[gatorcane]

06Z NAM shows some gradual development as it moves slowly NW then stalls it just east of the Northern Bahamas and here is how the run ends:

[Sanibel]

NHC probably knows better than to call it too early this season.

[SouthDadeFish]

Climatologically speaking, the area just east of ULLs are typically the favorable location for cyclogenesis. The reason for this is that the ULL provides forcing for rising motion via advection of cyclonic vorticity by the thermal wind. Furthermore, this location also coincides with upper-level divergence. Wind shear is low (~10 knots) currently and 850 mb vorticity has been gradually increasing. It is something to keep an eye on. I think the key for any possibility of development with this system is if it can continue to fire sustained, deep convection.

[tropicwatch]

"It is something to keep an eye on. I think the key for any possibility of development with this system is if it can continue to fire sustained, deep convection.

That has been the problem with a lot of systems this year.

[SouthDadeFish]

Surface pressures still seem to be high throughout the Turks and Caicos.

[SFLcane]

Yep slight possibility for development. Watch loop outflow boundaries not what you would expect with developing TC. This is still upper level system

http://climate.cod.edu/janis/satellite/ ... mas-vis-12

[NDG]

Yep slight possibility for development. Watch loop outflow boundaries not what you would expect with developing TC. This is still upper level system

http://climate.cod.edu/janis/satellite/ ... mas-vis-12

No question that this is still being influenced to form convection by the mid and upper level low like SouthDadeFish mentioned, so no surprise that there is an outflow boundary visible on satellite, if convection keeps developing it could eventually form a surface reflection as the ULL pushes away from it.

[SFLcane]

Nearing peak and plenty of warm sst's near South Florida so it's worth a watch.

[wxman57]

Surface pressures still seem to be high throughout the Turks and Caicos.

Yeah, I was going to point that out. Pressures are in the 1018mb-1020mb range throughout the Bahamas. It's an upper-level feature. Euro moves it westward across Florida over the next couple of days then into the north-central Gulf by this weekend, merging it with an approaching cold front.

[SFLcane]

Yea..... More rain for us not that we have not had enough this summer.

[floridasun78]

so wx saying move on their not thing watch here

[NDG]

Surface pressures still seem to be high throughout the Turks and Caicos.

Yeah, I was going to point that out. Pressures are in the 1018mb-1020mb range throughout the Bahamas. It's an upper-level feature. Euro moves it westward across Florida over the next couple of days then into the north-central Gulf by this weekend, merging it with an approaching cold front.

The ULL is now a good distance away from the area of convection with a nice h70 & h85 over the area by the convection. Surface pressures in this area have been high in this area to begin with. Many times have we seen tropical development in an environment of relatively high surface pressures.

[tropicwatch]

Pro-Mets can you explain the feature southeast of the convection expanding outward?

Visible Loop

[wxman57]

so wx saying move on their not thing watch here

Not in precisely those words, however.

[LarryWx]

After carefully examining the GFS/Euro, I think this could be a sleeper. (This feeling has very little to do with the NAM, a poor model to determine chances for genesis.) The Euro/GFS at least suggest to me a pretty good chance for at least a weak surface low to form within the next couple of days near the Bahamas. Also, progged upper level steering/conditions are not at all looking inhospitable to me. Per the Euro, upper level high pressure would dominate near and to the north of this near and offshore the SE US/Gulf coast through the weekend (i.e., before the unfavorable long wave trough enters). Looking more closely, the winds don't look all that unfavorable all of the way up to 200 mb into much of the weekend in much of the area. When I see a potential surface low off the SE coast forming near the bottom of an upper level high that looks to persist for at least a few days, it normally at least gets my attention. In summary, I think this currently has a nontrivial chance to develop into a TC within the next couple of days east of FL and, if so, quite possibly subsequently threaten parts of the SE US/Gulf coast since there'd probably be no recurve into the weekend and upper levels would seemingly be favorable for development.

[tropicwatch]

Pro-Mets can you explain the feature southeast of the convection expanding outward?

Visible Loop

Anyone?

[wxman57]

Pro-Mets can you explain the feature southeast of the convection expanding outward?

Visible Loop

Anyone?

What you're observing in that loop is an outlfow boundary. When a thunderstorm collapses, it pushes out a rush of air near the surface. This rush of air can often be seen as a ring of low clouds propagating radially outward from the collapsed thunderstorm.