2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[cycloneye]

What is the link for the text output for the UKMET model that you're using. I want to change my bookmark as the one I'm using doesn't contain the forecast pressure/wind speed.

Thanks,

Maybe something subtropical forms in Central Atlantic? UKMET is showing it.

Here is the link.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... plots.html

[Alyono]

Tbo i expect a slow epac with a very weak monsoon this season and zilch out in the cpac. Atl to fire up.

You are misreading the plots and not looking at all dynamical models. Ec is going for an active epac season. May not have as many storms forming in the cpac but there should be many moving into the cpac

[crownweather]

Thanks - that is the link I do have, but the text output I'm retrieving is different than what you posted this morning. Text output I see on this site doesn't list the wind/pressure forecast by the UKMET. Strange.

This is what I am able to retrieve:

WTNT80 EGRR 230418



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.04.2016



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 25.8N 59.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 25.04.2016 25.8N 59.2W WEAK

00UTC 26.04.2016 27.2N 53.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.04.2016 29.5N 47.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.04.2016 30.9N 42.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 27.04.2016 30.6N 40.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.04.2016 29.7N 37.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 28.04.2016 29.2N 34.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.04.2016 29.2N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

What is the link for the text output for the UKMET model that you're using. I want to change my bookmark as the one I'm using doesn't contain the forecast pressure/wind speed.

Thanks,

Maybe something subtropical forms in Central Atlantic? UKMET is showing it.

Here is the link.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... plots.html

[gatorcane]

Maybe something subtropical forms in Central Atlantic? UKMET is showing it.


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 23.04.2016

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 25.8N 59.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.04.2016 60 25.8N 59.2W 1006 29
0000UTC 26.04.2016 72 27.2N 53.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 26.04.2016 84 29.5N 47.1W 992 48
0000UTC 27.04.2016 96 30.9N 42.9W 986 49
1200UTC 27.04.2016 108 30.6N 40.5W 991 40
0000UTC 28.04.2016 120 29.7N 37.7W 996 38
1200UTC 28.04.2016 132 29.2N 34.9W 999 33
0000UTC 29.04.2016 144 29.2N 33.5W 1003 35

http://i.imgur.com/nQ2dltj.gif

Down to 984MB at 72 hours on the 12Z ECMWF:

[stormwise]

CFSV2 (18Z ens) gulf storm last week of May.

[TheStormExpert]

CFSV2 (18Z ens) gulf storm last week of May.

What's the link to the place you are viewing the CFS model?

[cycloneye]

I am eagered to see the new GFS after it upgrades on the 11th of May.Here is a hint from Levi Cowan.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 11m11 minutes ago

New GFS in May will have 3 levels of forecast stratification: 1-hourly, 3-hourly, and 12-hourly. Code must support arbitrary time intervals.

[stormwise]

Continental NEaster

[gatorcane]

For the first time, we see the GFS long-range show lowering shear across the Caribbean with an area of anti-cyclonic flow centered over the SW Caribbean. It's all super long-range but an indication the start of hurricane season is nearing where we look to the SW and Western Caribbean for early season development:

[gatorcane]

Last few runs of GFS show a Western Caribbean cyclone...latest 12Z brings in timeframe a good amount but way out in long-range...ends up heading NE into Cuba and the Bahamas. You know the drill with the GFS this time of year....

[tolakram]

Usually the GFS id's the first EPAC disturbance but puts it in this area.

[cycloneye]

Words of wisdom from Levi.

@TropicalTidbits · 2m2 minutes ago

Tip for model watchers: If the GFS has a cyclonic jet kink close to a forecast TC in W. Carib, the TC is fake.

[TheStormExpert]

Dang GFS! Back at it again with those 'Phantom Storms'!

[TheStormExpert]

Words of wisdom from Levi.

@TropicalTidbits · 2m2 minutes ago

Tip for model watchers: If the GFS has a cyclonic jet kink close to a forecast TC in W. Carib, the TC is fake.

What's a cyclonic jet kink?

[Kingarabian]

Hopefully the upgrade on the 11th will help it.

[cycloneye]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 9m9 minutes ago

Going to be watching for folks talking about GFS upgrade next week. No, it's not just like the ECMWF. Close but not quite that 4DVar.

[cycloneye]

In case someone missed my post about the GFS upgrade here it is.

The date of the GFS upgrade changed to May 11 instead of May 17.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... s_gdas.htm

Effective on or about Wednesday May 11, 2016, beginning with the

1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers

for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the GFS

Analysis and Forecast System as follows:



- Changes to the data assimilation components

- Changes to the model components

- Addition of hourly gridded output through 120 hours

- Addition of five layers in the upper stratosphere in gridded

output

- Addition of new product fields

- Product removals

[drezee]

Out of hibernation....Euro ENSO And monthlies are potentially more favorable for the CSU June forecast.

[cycloneye]

Out of hibernation....Euro ENSO And monthlies are potentially more favorable for the CSU June forecast.

Favorable about what?

[drezee]

Out of hibernation....Euro ENSO And monthlies are potentially more favorable for the CSU June forecast.

Favorable about what?

hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2015/june2015/jun2015.pdf

Predictors 1 and 3 for their forecast are more favorable for development now than in March of this year for the April forecast. I would expect greater favorable standard deviations in the June 1 forecast.