2017 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

17/9/4 I'm not seeing many strong signals for above average, however there aren't many strong signals for below average, so I would say that near-slightly above average seems reasonable

Last year with an unfavorable weak La Nina, active Atlantic and a falling PDO the EPAC still managed over 180 units of ACE! This basin is in some kind of a flurry of activity boost since 2014. What conditions do you see that is less than 2016? if anything, they look even better

[weathaguyry]

17/9/4 I'm not seeing many strong signals for above average, however there aren't many strong signals for below average, so I would say that near-slightly above average seems reasonable

Last year with an unfavorable weak La Nina, active Atlantic and a falling PDO the EPAC still managed over 180 units of ACE! What conditions do you see that is less than 2016? if anything, they look even better

True, I guess those numbers are pretty conservative, but if the Atlantic gets going earlier this year, with some Hurricanes in July/August, that may put a cap on the EPAC storms rolling out, and by my understanding the most active time of year for storms in the EPAC is usually August (Please correct me if I am wrong, because I'm not familiar with the EPAC as much) Also, there weren't many good quality Atlantic storms until the PDO crash in late September, without that the Atlantic would've been fairly quiet, with maybe some more messy sheared storms in October. Also the latest CFS forecasts shows some increased precip for the Atlantic Tropics, and the MDR seems to be warming as of late, but still, anything can happen and I've only been tracking hurricanes since 2015, when I was still only 12 years old

[Ntxw]

True, I guess those numbers are pretty conservative, but if the Atlantic gets going earlier this year, with some Hurricanes in July/August, that may put a cap on the EPAC storms rolling out, and by my understanding the most active time of year for storms in the EPAC is usually August (Please correct me if I am wrong, because I'm not familiar with the EPAC as much) Also, there weren't many good quality Atlantic storms until the PDO crash in late September, without that the Atlantic would've been fairly quiet, with maybe some more messy sheared storms in October. Also the latest CFS forecasts shows some increased precip for the Atlantic Tropics, and the MDR seems to be warming as of late, but still, anything can happen and I've only been tracking hurricanes since 2015, when I was still only 12 years old

I think that's a fair point. Also would like to add I think the designation of La Nina as late summer and fall certainly helped the Atlantic too. Last season was not an instance of the adverse effects between the Atlantic and EPAC as both were very busy. Independent of the other, the EPAC is still on stretch of much above normal activity. Hawaii has not had a peaceful season in awhile.

[weathaguyry]

True, I guess those numbers are pretty conservative, but if the Atlantic gets going earlier this year, with some Hurricanes in July/August, that may put a cap on the EPAC storms rolling out, and by my understanding the most active time of year for storms in the EPAC is usually August (Please correct me if I am wrong, because I'm not familiar with the EPAC as much) Also, there weren't many good quality Atlantic storms until the PDO crash in late September, without that the Atlantic would've been fairly quiet, with maybe some more messy sheared storms in October. Also the latest CFS forecasts shows some increased precip for the Atlantic Tropics, and the MDR seems to be warming as of late, but still, anything can happen and I've only been tracking hurricanes since 2015, when I was still only 12 years old

I think that's a fair point. Also would like to add I think the designation of La Nina as late summer and fall certainly helped the Atlantic too. Last season was not an instance of the adverse effects between the Atlantic and EPAC as both were very busy. Independent of the other, the EPAC is still on stretch of much above normal activity. Hawaii has not had a peaceful season in awhile.

Very True, also with the warming waters near Hawaii, if another storm like Iselle decided to poke its head around the area, they may not turn out as lucky as they did in 2014.

[Yellow Evan]

17/9/4 I'm not seeing many strong signals for above average, however there aren't many strong signals for below average, so I would say that near-slightly above average seems reasonable

Last year with an unfavorable weak La Nina, active Atlantic and a falling PDO the EPAC still managed over 180 units of ACE! What conditions do you see that is less than 2016? if anything, they look even better

True, I guess those numbers are pretty conservative, but if the Atlantic gets going earlier this year, with some Hurricanes in July/August, that may put a cap on the EPAC storms rolling out, and by my understanding the most active time of year for storms in the EPAC is usually August (Please correct me if I am wrong, because I'm not familiar with the EPAC as much) Also, there weren't many good quality Atlantic storms until the PDO crash in late September, without that the Atlantic would've been fairly quiet, with maybe some more messy sheared storms in October. Also the latest CFS forecasts shows some increased precip for the Atlantic Tropics, and the MDR seems to be warming as of late, but still, anything can happen and I've only been tracking hurricanes since 2015, when I was still only 12 years old

EPAC has a broad peak from July to October. I've seen seasons "peak" during any of those 4 months.

[Yellow Evan]

To be honest, a slightly above average season (17-20 NS, 5-7 majors) isn't impossible due to the possibility of a Modoki El Nino similar to 1986, 1976, 1991, and 1972, mostly based on analog seasons but I don't trust the historical record prior to 1988.

[Kingarabian]

Euro has TS Adrian in 240hrs.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS moves the timeframe down to 8 days for beginning of development.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF also begins a slow development (Weak) process on day 8.

Day 8



Day 10

[Kingarabian]

Cycloneye, I hope the models don't have the same issues they had last season... Initially showing development due to conducive conditions and in the end nothing develops.

[Yellow Evan]

Cycloneye, I hope the models don't have the same issues they had last season... Initially showing development due to conducive conditions and in the end nothing develops.

I only recall that happening when MJO was about to exit the basin.

[Yellow Evan]

12z runs of ECMWF, EPS, and GFS all continue to show Adrian and slowly bringing the time frame down with the GFS bringing this into Central America.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS brings this into Costa Rica

[cycloneye]

00z ECMWF is much stronger and it goes down to the 7 day starting timeframe.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF is the strongest yet since it began showing this area now as Hurricane Adrian.

[Kingarabian]

963mb on the high resolution Euro. The Euro seems to be forecasting a solid favorable MJO pulse and we could see more early season activity after Adrian.

[Kingarabian]

UKMET also on board for development. Southern Mexico should keep a close eye on this next week.

[Yellow Evan]

963mb on the high resolution Euro. The Euro seems to be forecasting a solid favorable MJO pulse and we could see more early season activity after Adrian.

I saw some hints in the 0z EPS spread of another system around Day 15, but one storm at a time

[Yellow Evan]

6z parlell GFS brings this to Mexico as a dangerous hurricane

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS weaker. 00Z Euro bombs this into a Cat. 5.