Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[LarryWx]

The GFS basically is leaving the possibility open Florida or EC of US could get hit from the east in October. Wow that would be something.

Getting hit from the east on EC 10/1-15 has happened only once every 30 years since 1851: 1966, 1947, 1941, 1916, 1913. Now, getting hit from E to SSE 10/1-15 has occured once every 10 years with last one Matthew.

[Aric Dunn]

annnd here comes the good ole GFS 00z

[LarryWx]

0Z ICON similar to previous runs with track over E Cuba heading NNE.

Looks like a recurve with much weaker ridging that is leaving.

[Hurricaneman]

So far through 78hrs on the 0zGFS it has formation and not in a silly feedback vorticity

[meriland29]

Okay.... what is going on with GFS models... a FL hit with a tight nit hurricane leftover from Kirk? Wow... what the heck did I miss the past 24 hours..

[LarryWx]

0Z UK: again focused on EPAC

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 14.5N 94.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2018 144 14.5N 94.2W 1003 37

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS now has a convective feedback system Between Jamaica and Cuba, starting to think the Canadian might have a better handle on this, so let’s see what the Euro shows then either I will go with the GFS or against it

[LarryWx]

0Z GFS setting up for further west track than last few runs.

[LarryWx]

0Z CMC fwiw E GOM

[blp]

0Z GFS setting up for further west track than last few runs.

Yep this is a different run. Maybe it finally shifted.

[Hurricaneman]

0Z GFS setting up for further west track than last few runs.

Yep this is a different run. Maybe it finally shifted.

Looks like the 0zGFS does nothing with this system

[blp]

0Z GFS setting up for further west track than last few runs.

Yep this is a different run. Maybe it finally shifted.

Looks like the 0zGFS does nothing with this system

We will have to see what the ensembles say to see what this means. It could be the Ops run failed to develop but the ensembles are stronger. We will see but at least this run makes more sense.

[AJC3]

0Z GFS setting up for further west track than last few runs.

Yep this is a different run. Maybe it finally shifted.

Looks like the 0zGFS does nothing with this system

The 850MB streamline/vort forecast through H240 shows an elongated, strung out mess. It appears the primary area of vorticity drifts W to WNW to near or over the Yucatan peninsula. This leaves an even weaker, elongated trough to drift north across the Greater Antilles and into the Bahamas/Sargasso Sea. Around days 9-10, a very "feedback-y" looking 850MB vortex/surface low spins up at the eastern end of this trough, well north of PR and the VI.

[LarryWx]

Yep this is a different run. Maybe it finally shifted.

Looks like the 0zGFS does nothing with this system

We will have to see what the ensembles say to see what this means. It could be the Ops run failed to develop but the ensembles are stronger. We will see but at least this run makes more sense.

OZ GEFS: not whole lot of activity but more than 18Z with FL Big Bend hit by 1 H 10/10 and a TS riding up FL E coast 10/11-12 from another member.

[LarryWx]

0Z FV3: weakening ridging allows TC to stay offshore E US.

[otowntiger]

So sounds like not much to worry about with this possible developing system.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS trending towards a strung out mess SW to NE in the Northwestern Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

So sounds like not much to worry about with this possible developing system.

Latest model trends to me seem less alarming, but you know the drill, just watch and wait.

[ronjon]

00z ECM has 1006 mb low pressure in the western caribbean in one week. Keep your eyes on this model as it has the best performance of any at the longer ranges. GFS, well, enough said about its generally poor performance. Shear seems like it might inhibit at least rapid development. Time to watch model trends.

[NDG]

Seeing a strong system in the western Caribbean in the 5-10 day range is not looking very likely, GFS and Euro are showing the shear not led up in this area. It will help in building convection and a vorticity to develop but because of the same shear it will have a hard time organizing, it will have to move out of the Caribbean. IMO.
El Nino conditions are basically here already.