Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 90L)

[abajan]

8AM:

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Wave close to emerging West Africa. You can see a weak turning of the clouds.

[cycloneye]

Wow, UKMET develops this wave.

[abajan]

2PM:

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Splashing to the water.

[IcyTundra]

GFS has been taking this into the Caribbean the past 2 runs. Lesser and Greater Antilles have to watch this.

[Landy]

GFS has been taking this into the Caribbean the past 2 runs. Lesser and Greater Antilles have to watch this.

Seems like it's amping something in the ITCZ up which then interacts with this wave, causing whatever's left to stay south. Could be a messy system at first but definitely not as cut-and-dry for recurve chances as before. Euro still north for now.

[abajan]

8PM:

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Ianswfl]

GFS 00z way west so far!

[Ianswfl]

Still chucking west hitting Jamica as a major!

[Teban54]

That's the thing though, anything after forecast hour 180/200 on the operational GFS should be taken with a grain of salt because of how wildly things can fluctuate between them. Compare how the current tropical wave storm was way further west before recurving in the last 12z run compared to the current 18z one. The further into the run you get, the less accurate the forecast is. They can be useful for certain data and trends though, of course.

I know how problematic Gulf storms are considering I directly went through Michael back in 2018 and had my entire hometown nearly wiped out. Letting my guard down is the last thing I plan on doing.

The GFS and ensembles did snuff out Ian and Idalia though long range. Of course landfall points vary each run but they give hints something will form. Seems last year and this year less phantom storms on the models.

Operational GFS performed poorly with the genesis of Idalia compared to the Euro. GFS refused to show Idalia developing until it became clear that there would be development. Can’t remember how the GEFS did.

With Idalia, while GEFS didn't wake up as embarrassingly late as the operational GFS did, it was still trailing behind EPS in showing development.

[Ianswfl]

This run is way west moving wsw now but big trof should pick this up.

[Ianswfl]

927mb and starting to turn nw while getting stronger. Runs the channel? Someone in the Gulf is going to get smoked by this.

[Ianswfl]

Path so far reminding me of Wilma, tick east maybe

[Landy]

Hall of fame run between the Allen/Gilbert/Ivan mashup and a Sandy repeat out in the open Atlantic.

[Ianswfl]

Hall of fame run between the Allen/Gilbert/Ivan mashup and a Sandy repeat out in the open Atlantic.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1153922715200270418/1695187011363840566.gif?width=967&height=684

Ensembles lookign more active too so far! I think it will adjust back east a bit though. Still think Tampa on South at biggest risk from a CAG or something else.

[MSUDawg]

GFS 00z way west so far!

For once. Let's please not let this happen...
Leaving on a cruise to Jamaica and grand Cayman on the 30th. Would rather not meet up with this in the gulf...

[ThunderForce]

Safe to say I absolutely hate this run. Not only is this literally the largest hurricane force wind radius I've ever seen in the Atlantic basin, but the hurricane force winds seem to stretch out all the way from Bay St. Louis, MS to near Perry, FL. Absolute devastation for the FL Panhandle, Southern Alabama and Southern Mississippi.

[Ianswfl]

Safe to say I absolutely hate this run. Not only is this literally the largest hurricane force wind radius I've ever seen in the Atlantic basin, but the hurricane force winds seem to stretch out all the way from Bay St. Louis, MS to near Perry, FL. Absolute devastation for the FL Panhandle, Southern Alabama and Southern Mississippi.

Yep. Personally i think it shifts back east in future runs due to time of the year climo wise