91C.Invest - Very far to the north (42.5 N, 146.5 W)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Link


Looking good, also the system is looking more tropical.


EDIT: URL changed to hyperlink. -senorpepr
Don't forget again.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks tropical to me. Probably at least a sub tropical storm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Another pic!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/avn-l.jpg

[Coredesat]

EPAC TWD:

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS LOCATED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR
42N145W...SHIFTING SE...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING S
ALONG 32N138W 19N138W. TO THE SE...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR
14N114W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW CRESTING GENTLY ALONG POINTS
20N137W 25N128W 23N116W. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED N
OF 24N ALONG 111W. A BAND OF STRONG DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 30N100W 26N115W 28N127W
25N134W...AND A SECOND BAND IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
LINE 20N100W 20N100W 19N124W 12N140W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION BETWEEN 100W AND 126W IS STREAMING ENE TO THE S OF
THE SECOND DRY AIR BAND MENTIONED ABOVE.

[Hurricaneman]

I have to ask has a hurricane or tropical- subtropical storm ever hit Oregon

[WmE]

I have to ask has a hurricane or tropical- subtropical storm ever hit Oregon

I don't think so.

[Chacor]

Convection around this system is now concentrated to the north of the centre. No more on the south.

[P.K.]

The 1200 GMT position is very close to crossing to RSMC Miami's AOR.

[Chacor]

As of 1300 UTC, up to 30 kt, at 140.2W. It is possible that RSMC Miami might choose to pick this up perhaps as a depression.

[Chacor]

Jeff Masters picked it up as a "Thingamabobbercane"... or subtropical storm.

EDIT: He also agrees:

"The spiral bands of showers and eye/eyewall appearance look very similar to Hurricane Epsilon of 2005, which formed over waters of 75-77 F (22-23C). If Thingamabobbercane had been in the Atlantic, it would likely have been given a name and called a subtropical cyclone. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu isn't even mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook, so Thingamabobbercane is not going to get a name. "

[P.K.]

From a few hours ago.

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XI
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER/OFB 1145 UTC NOV 02 2006
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SECURITE
PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E TO 30N 160E.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC NOV 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC NOV 04.

...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 43N 143W 990 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WINDS 25 TO 35 KT SEAS 10
TO 16 FT BETWEEN 180 NM AND 480 NM N QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 540
NM S QUADRANT. ALSO WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT FROM 38N
TO 49N E OF 129W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N 134W 994 MB. FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 30
KT SEAS 10 TO 16 FT WITHIN 420 NM SE SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 300
NM NW QUADRANT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N 128W 994 MB. FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 30
KT SEAS 10 TO 14 FT WITHIN 540 NM S QUADRANT.

[WmE]

Now 35 kt at 137.4N!

[P.K.]

WHXX01 KMIA 021828
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST (CP912006) ON 20061102 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061102 1800 061103 0600 061103 1800 061104 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 43.0N 137.4W 45.1N 130.4W 47.8N 124.2W 50.2N 117.6W
BAMM 43.0N 137.4W 44.9N 132.1W 47.4N 127.5W 49.9N 122.8W
LBAR 43.0N 137.4W 44.7N 130.5W 46.4N 123.1W 48.1N 115.5W
SHIP 35KTS 32KTS 32KTS 32KTS
DSHP 35KTS 32KTS 32KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061104 1800 061105 1800 061106 1800 061107 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 51.5N 109.4W 51.1N 93.1W 50.1N 76.2W 48.6N 55.7W
BAMM 52.0N 116.9W 54.1N 105.3W 54.3N 94.1W 54.4N 82.3W
LBAR 49.9N 108.2W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 30KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 43.0N LONCUR = 137.4W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 23KT
LATM12 = 41.8N LONM12 = 143.1W DIRM12 = 89DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 42.5N LONM24 = 146.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 998MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Coredesat]

The center has become exposed. The way it looks now, I doubt it will be classified by anyone, even the NHC.

[CrazyC83]

If this was officially classified, what would it be?

[Derecho]

If this was officially classified, what would it be?

I'm really surprised popping in here that this thread went on for three pages without "polar lows" being mentioned - this issue has been extensively discussed over on Eastern (with many people believing, with some justification, that this feature is in fact a Polar Low.)

They're small warm-core storms that form in the Arctic - actually this is a bit far south for one. They've never been officially classified by any tropical forecasting agency

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_low

[Coredesat]

It's been brought up in the Wikipedia tropical cyclone project chat room, actually. It is a bit far south to be a polar low, but I know that polar lows generally don't last very long. Hmm.

[senorpepr]

Here is my full analysis of the situation: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=90971

A quick blurb on it: It's not tropical or sub-tropical. What we have on our hands here is a warm-seclusion on an extratropical frontal wave/low.

See the link that I provided for full synoptic story.

[Thunder44]

Here is my full analysis of the situation: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=90971

A quick blurb on it: It's not tropical or sub-tropical. What we have on our hands here is a warm-seclusion on an extratropical frontal wave/low.

See the link that I provided for full synoptic story.

Good analysis. I do believe that despite it's satellite appearance the system was probably more extratropical characteristics. We had many Nor'easters during that go under rapid intensification off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast, that have eye-like feature on visible imagery to them as well.But they are much easier to classify as extratropical because they are much larger and have well-defined fronts.

[P.K.]

I don't think the upper atmosphere was really cold enough for a polar low anyway. Around my area the 500hPa temperature needs to be around -40C with SSTs maybe 7C or so lower than in this case, but if you look at the initialisation of the GFS from just after this appeared on the NRL it was way below this at around -18C. Don't quote me on that temperature being the correct one for this area though.