2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[ScottNAtlanta]

Very interesting discussion with Levi Cowen on YouTube (he starts around 13 mins.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JK9dqUrVLSY

[Hurricaneman]

My feeling is in the next few days I feel the pattern will become more summer like and won't have to worry about a inactive season like 2013

[Ntxw]

My feeling is in the next few days I feel the pattern will become more summer like and won't have to worry about a inactive season like 2013

The ensembles and Euro op guidance suggest we will be west coast ridge, eastern US trough through about the first week of June to the end of it's run. Cooler anomalies will be frequent along and east of the MS River.

[Kingarabian]

EPS weeklies showing a wet, cooler CONUS through July.

[TheStormExpert]

But what does all this mean for the hurricane season(if anything)?

[Hurricaneman]

EPS weeklies showing a wet, cooler CONUS through July.

Could be something to watch for later in the hurricane season as it seems the spring pattern wants to stay

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: But what does all this mean for the hurricane season(if anything)?

Could keep activity away from the western GOM and keep the eastern GOM and Florida in a more concerning position as the trough would be there to sweep anything from the east coast but if something goes into the Caribbean Florida would have to watch out in a pattern like that

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: But what does all this mean for the hurricane season(if anything)?

Probably not much short term. 2013 is brought up but 2014 was also a relative calm, coolish summer. There isn't a strong correlation between a cooler pattern and tropical activity only speculative or anecdotal terms. However more immediate, if you do get fronts to move into the gulf or off the Atlantic then you might get some spin ups from such stalled boundaries.

[TheStormExpert]

Not trying to get too much into it but didn't 2005 have a good bit of troughiness along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. with ridging over or around the SE U.S. which allowed storms like Dennis, Katrina, and Rita to head into the Gulf?

[Ntxw]

Not trying to get too much into it but didn't 2005 have a good bit of troughiness along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. with ridging over or around the SE U.S. which allowed storms like Dennis, Katrina, and Rita to head into the Gulf?

There was a lot of troughing towards the east coast and southeast US. Predominate index that was out of the norm from May-July of 2005 was the -NAO evident by the 500mb block over Quebec and eastern Canada

[Steve]

NAO 2005 was mixed during the hurricane months. From the NCDC monthlies:

June - -0.05
July - -0.51
August - +0.37
September - +0.63
October - -0.98

[cycloneye]

Northern GOM is abnormally cool for this time of year.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/869579166609494016

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/869580857438339074



 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/869581104168280065

[Kazmit]

For now it's quite cool, but the Gulf should be plenty warm by the time summer arrives. Even if temperatures are still below normal, it'll be warm enough to support an intense system.

[gatorcane]

Another look at SST anomalies - even though there is more than just SSTs to determine how active a season will be, this configuration screams active Atlantic/MDR because we have warmer than normal anomalies across much of the Atlantic MDR and the warmer anomalies in the EPAC are mostly in Nino 3 and 4 which wouldn't have that much of an impact on the Atlantic. Unlike recent years previous (except 2013), the warmer anomalies are in the tropics and not subtropics. Hurricanes are engines that are intended to remove heat from the tropics and there does seem to be above normal heat buildup in the tropical Atlantic. As I have been thinking since the beginning, El Nino possibility is really "La Nada." Think we got to see the experts bump their numbers higher. I actually thought my 17/9/4 numbers were maybe a bit too conservative considering that we already had one named storm already and we managed to squeeze 15 storms last year despite one year after one of the strongest El Ninos we have seen (2015).

[Hammy]

Are the frequent frontal systems the cause of the cooler GoM waters?

[Hurricaneman]

Are the frequent frontal systems the cause of the cooler GoM waters?

Yes and I think it might end soon due to seasonal changes

[Ntxw]

Are the frequent frontal systems the cause of the cooler GoM waters?

Fronts from the eastern trough along with the lower than normal pressures (rain) that upwells cooler water. The eastern trough will likely persist through the first half of June per ensembles

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/869652118503903236

[LarryWx]

Are the frequent frontal systems the cause of the cooler GoM waters?

Fronts from the eastern trough along with the lower than normal pressures (rain) that upwells cooler water. The eastern trough will likely persist through the first half of June per ensembles

I wonder if the cooler than normal May, especially along the western Gulf coast of the US, could have been a contributing factor.