2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[chaser1]

IMO the warmer waters in the Western Atlantic are more concerning because this is where the chances for landfall significantly increase. Without a strong blocking high in place the Cape Verde storms have a pretty good chance of recurving harmlessly out to sea. With the cooler SST's in the East Atlantic this may just allow the waves to stay weaker and head west until they hit the warmer waters near the Caribbean. We also still have about 1.5-2 months for the water anomalies to change in time for the prime part of hurricane season as well.

With chances increasing of an El Niño or El Niño-like conditions the Caribbean should be just as hostile if not more hostile than the Tropical Atlantic.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1011747343933235200

I think a fantastic point is made by Tolakram (above) "....If there's one common theme to seasonal predictions it seems that too much weight is always placed on something". Seems to me that those particular "somethings" each year are 1) ENSO 2) SST's, 3) SLP's and 4) MJO Strength/location. So, the one big question as I see it is ..... if a combination of dry sinking air and/or strong upper westerlies happen to be causation for very low instability in the Caribbean, and as Txwatcher91 shrewdly points out ENSO is not a present factor (could/may be in coming months but too early to tell), then "what" present pattern inducing condition seems primarily responsible for the very low instability in the Caribbean? Next question then is how likely will this pattern generally persist during the upcoming 60 days, and what global or regional pattern shift might we look for as a precursor of downstream instability increasing for that region? As a side-note isn't the Indian Ocean overall exhibiting very high instability right now? Generally, it has been my observation that an active Indian Ocean portends to an active Atlantic basin. On the other hand, I can't say that I've heard whether the N. Indian Ocean has actually spun off an average (or above average) number of tropical cyclones thus far. I do recall one noteworthy and rare tropical cyclone hitting the Somalia region in May though.

[gatorcane]

I was going back and reading through the 2017 version of this thread from last year at this same time. Indicators were pretty strong for an active season particularly the MDR. This year not so much. We will get our hurricanes but it is tough to see an active season again this year. Seems like more random west of 55W type development and “home brew” without a particularly strong Bermuda High, maybe one Cape Verde long tracker. But it only takes one.

[TheStormExpert]

Our first chance of some Cape Verde action should come during the first two weeks of August. Probably will see Beryl at that point if we haven’t yet.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1011983756813533189

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1012530524924071936

[NDG]

Very true, this morning the dust covers just about all of the Atlantic MDR from Africa all the way to the SW GOM!!! The MDR is shut down for business until further notice

[Ntxw]

GOES EAST imagery of the dust

[TheStormExpert]

Well if nothing forms in July it'll be the first time in 9 years (2009 was the last) that no TC formed in the Atlantic in both June and July. Yet another indication of an inactive season.

[AtlanticWind]

Well if nothing forms in July it'll be the first time in 9 years (2009 was the last) that no TC formed in the Atlantic in both June and July. Yet another indication of an inactive season.

2004 and 1950 are just 2 examples of active seasons that had no activity in june/July.

Not saying it will be active this year but the lack of activity now has little to do with what
happens August thru October

[AutoPenalti]

Well if nothing forms in July it'll be the first time in 9 years (2009 was the last) that no TC formed in the Atlantic in both June and July. Yet another indication of an inactive season.

Season doesn’t usually pick up till August though.

[tarheelprogrammer]

That may just look like an even more vigorous African wave train than last year.

[tolakram]

Well if nothing forms in July it'll be the first time in 9 years (2009 was the last) that no TC formed in the Atlantic in both June and July. Yet another indication of an inactive season.

I have no idea if the season is going to be active or not but your post is a fine example of the so called 'trends' that don't actually exist. An inactive June and July is not an indicator of anything. Good grief, 2013 had 2 storms each in June and July.

[Yellow Evan]

Well if nothing forms in July it'll be the first time in 9 years (2009 was the last) that no TC formed in the Atlantic in both June and July. Yet another indication of an inactive season.

2004 and 1950 beg to differ. Nevertheless, I don't think many here are quite bullish on the season in general.

[TheStormExpert]

It's quite obvious we are not likely heading for a repeat of either of those seasons. Guess I should've been a little more specific when making that statement above.

[Shell Mound]

2018 may turn out to be reminiscent of some slow-starting, average-to-below-average years from the 1980s. 1980 (eleven NS), 1983 (four NS), 1984 (thirteen NS), and 1987 (seven NS) did not feature their first or second named system until August. So, too, did 1977 (six NS). So 2018 may turn out to be an inactive year that does not really take off until August. What people are not mentioning is the fact that, while systems may manage to form over the subtropics, they are less likely to hit the mainland U.S. than a storm that develops farther south. Storms that form over the subtropics almost always get caught up in the westerlies and are dependent on high-latitude blocking to be forced westward. With +NAO and a strong TUTT likely to be factors, the odds are that these systems will curve out to sea.

More indicators:

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1013621267453399041



 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1013621687554887680



 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1013729746167873536



 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1013736108914593793

[Ntxw]

Over the next 1-2 weeks (ops and ensembles) depict high, anomalous shear across the Caribbean. This in contrast to earlier in the season (May-Early June) and more reminiscent of an oncoming El Nino. 40-50kts currently out there that will continue.

[LarryWx]

The June Eurosip pressure maps for ASO very much concur with Mr. Lowry and also keeps the Gulf pretty quiet, too. So, a much, much quieter season than 2017 appears to be on the way. This prospect is so much of a relief after last year’s terrible season!

[SoupBone]

:uarrow: Very true, this morning the dust covers just about all of the Atlantic MDR from Africa all the way to the SW GOM!!! The MDR is shut down for business until further notice

That is amazing. I know SAL is typically robust this time of year, relaxing as we head toward peak season, but that is impressive.

[psyclone]

The standard barrage of premature season cancel posts have a good chance of verifying this year. I'll take it.

[SFLcane]

The standard barrage of premature season cancel posts have a good chance of verifying this year. I'll take it.

Until that 1 storm makes landfall in your area. All signs point to a sleeper this year BUT that does not mean that the potential is not there for a few named storms to impact land.

[LarryWx]

The standard barrage of premature season cancel posts have a good chance of verifying this year. I'll take it.

I prefer calling the prospect “season slow” rather than “season cancel”.