Accuweather's Comments on Ernesto and NHC!

[flair]

hey flair...gale/storm warnings are only marine warnings as you stated, I think the NHC did a good job with what they did. Ernesto was not a hurricane...had they issued a Hurricane Warning, then people in the warning area would of thought they experienced Cat 1 winds, regardless of what the NHC said...then once they are actually threatend by one they will think its no sweat, I've been through it before...then once they received true Cat 1 winds, they would be even more caught off guard...the point is that people want to believe they have been through the highest winds a storm had, regardless of what side of the storm they went through...the NHC did not believe it would become a hurricane, therefore no warnings...then later on, they downgraded it to a TD, just as it was...just because a bouy reads 52 MPH sustained does not mean that the system is a true tropical storm as defined by "Da Rules" thus this is why they stated this:

THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

If the winds are not directly associated with the cyclone, then they don't count...the NHC does not issue the specifics for your local area...that comes down to your local NWS Forecasting Office...yet another example...this from the final advisory:

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS WEAKENED
AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE COAST. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

-

That advisory said THE "COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST"

Okay, what happened between the Delmarva and Currituck Beach Light, NC? (This was the area that got clobbered). If the winds from the Delmarva northward were not directly from Ernesto, then what about south of the Delmarva? An awful lot of people live between the Delmarva and Currituck Beach Light, NC. (Say, 1.2 million in Hampton Roads alone). I think "Da Rules" warranted a TS Warning.

The NHC had tropical storm warnings for the Tidewater when Charley came through, there were no winds even approaching TS force then. There were hurricane warnings for Floyd and Bertha, there were no hurricane force winds in the Tidewater for either. There was a tropical storm warning for the Tidewater when Dennis made final landfall in NC. No TS winds were recorded. There was a TS warning and Hurricane Watch for Ophelia in VA, and there wasn't even a breeze from it.. There was a Hurricane warning for Isabel in Virginia, however any sustained Hurricane force winds were isolated, and were caused by, you guessed it, the strong high to the north.

If the winds in the Tidewater were pressure gradient winds, the strongest winds would have happened well in advance of Ernesto. The strongest winds were occuring in the spiral bands and as the center passed just to the west.

Another thing, gale warnings are not even issued to the general public. If you had pulled up a zone forecast for say, Newport News or Norfolk, VA on Friday morning, you wouldn't have seen "gale warning" anywhere. It is a marine warning. You would have had to pull up a marine forecast to get that information. Weather junkies like us new what was coming, but the general public did not.

[AJC3]

Another thing, gale warnings are not even issued to the general public. If you had pulled up a zone forecast for say, Newport News or Norfolk, VA on Friday morning, you wouldn't have seen "gale warning" anywhere. It is a marine warning. You would have had to pull up a marine forecast to get that information. Weather junkies like us new what was coming, but the general public did not.

Ref: the bold text....
Are you asserting that the responsible WFO's did NOT have Wind Advisories and/or High Wind Warnings in effect? That would be a surprise to me...I was under the assumption that they did.

[flair]

Wind advisories, yes. High wind warning, no.

[AJC3]

Wind advisories, yes. High wind warning, no.

OK, so the public did in fact have some idea that strong winds were on the way. And now that I look back at the archives, WFO Wakefield did in fact upgrade their Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning for their coastal counties.

[flair]

AJC3, I looked, and yes they did upgrade to high wind warning, though a lot of people were without power by this point.

I'm not trying to bash the NHC, they do a good job. Also I am not condoning AccuWeather's actions. I can't stand AccuWeather. I just have never seen a system handled like this in this area. Because the warnings stopped south of the area, people assumed that it wouldn't be that bad.

[AJC3]

AJC3, I looked, and yes they did upgrade to high wind warning, though a lot of people were without power by this point.

I'm not trying to bash the NHC, they do a good job. Also I am not condoning AccuWeather's actions. I can't stand AccuWeather. I just have never seen a system handled like this in this area. Because the warnings stopped south of the area, people assumed that it wouldn't be that bad.

I understand your point. But I think a more legitimate critique would be to say that the WFO's may have initially underestimated the winds by only issuing the NPW as wind advisory for their coastal counties.

After all, the general public, for the most part, and large gets their wx info from the local media, which SHOULD give as much weight to wind warnings/advisories for tropical systems which come by way of NHC/WFO as they do for those strictly issued by the WFO.

A rose by any other name...right?

Anyway, your point is well-taken.

[tomboudreau]

I thought it was the local responsibilities of the local WFO to issue high wind warnings and wind advisories and NOT the hurricane center. Maybe I'm wrong...but it looks like to me, that the hurricane center didn't drop the ball, but in fact the local office did? Just my observation.

[NetZeroZeus]

The John warnings came from the Mexican Government, not the NHC. NHC only issues warnings for the USA

Were the forecasts issued by Mexico as well? Because it seems weird that they make the forecasts and they make the graphics but not the warnings, although I do see what you're getting at here, it's each country's responsabilty.

Now to get the topic back on Ernesto, I still do not believe any hurricane conditions occured on the coast, and to make distinctions between technicalities such as a TS warning and a Gale warning seems, well..dumb, since they both imply the same conditions, they are just caused by a different type of system, that doesn't mean you shouldn't act accordingly, because the NHC deemed that the winds were not of a tropical nature anymore, and they were bing caused by the pressure gradient between the area of high pressure, now I'm sure I'm regurgitating many comments made here in this thread, but that is my opinion, and if any other organization can seriously do better than the NHC for free, or pay for that matter, I'd seriously like to see it.

[george_r_1961]

Wind advisories, yes. High wind warning, no.

Im in Hampton.and we did have a high wind warning.

[george_r_1961]

if any other organization can seriously do better than the NHC for free, or pay for that matter, I'd seriously like to see it.


My sentiments exactly. NHC is second to none.

[Derek Ortt]

the WMO advisories are issued by NHC. Canada issues their own advisories, though for the north Atlantic

However, watches and warnings are the responsibility of each individual country

[Dean4Storms]

This is politics from accu-weather nothing more.

I'm surprised they didn't blame it on Bush!

[AJC3]

One of the interesting things that people seem to forget all the time is that NHC doesn't even issue watches and warnings unilaterally for the U.S. and PR/USVI.

They will actually PROPOSE watches and warnings (or any changes to existing watches/warnings) either dring the pre-advisory conference calls (which take place one hour before each scheduled regular advisory), or by phone, just before a conference call, or in some cases an intermediate advisory. The WFO's will almost always have the final say. In the case of both sides having significant differences, an amicable agreement can be reached in short order. Sometimes, it takes a little more convincing on either sides' part though.