2014 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUN 25 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form to the south of the
coast of Mexico in a couple of days, and conditions appear favorable
for some development of this system by the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg
NNNN

[Ntxw]

Liking chances here. Very favorable environment not long from now. Wouldn't be surprised to see the multiple storms modeled verify. Good chance at least one hurricane will come of it. The shear I've been seeing for the western Gulf/Carib is going to be enhanced by whatever forms here in the EPAC, the gradient lower pressures in this region and higher pressures over there relative is causing it.

If I remember correctly Yellow Evan mentioned July being the first peak in the this basin, good start for that period.

[Yellow Evan]

Liking chances here. Very favorable environment not long from now. Wouldn't be surprised to see the multiple storms modeled verify. Good chance at least one hurricane will come of it. The shear I've been seeing for the western Gulf/Carib is going to be enhanced by whatever forms here in the EPAC, the gradient lower pressures in this region and higher pressures over there relative is causing it.

If I remember correctly Yellow Evan mentioned July being the first peak in the this basin, good start for that period.

It's around mid-July. I noted before several times that activity would likely pick up in late June/early July based on MJO, so so far I'm right it appears. Granted, I did not expect 2 Cat 4's to have formed prior to that time.

[Yellow Evan]

Formation



Peak. GFS keeps it offshore this run.



Landfall as a minimal hurricane. Would only be the 4th July landfallng hurricane and 2nd on Baja. They usually occur in early starting El Nino years though.



Elida forming



Elida and Fausto

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 25 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form to the south of the
coast of Mexico in a couple of days, and conditions appear favorable
for this system to become a tropical cyclone over the weekend while
it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[hurricanes1234]

Wow, that's unusual to have such a sharp difference between 2 day and 5 day forecasts (0%/60%).

[hurricanes1234]

I've noticed that there is a lot of shear near the possible area of interest. Do you think this will affect its development?

[Yellow Evan]

I've noticed that there is a lot of shear near the possible area of interest. Do you think this will affect its development?

Ill post later, but models are quite bullish with development, so I doubt it.

[Yellow Evan]

12z CMC peaks Douglas as a strong TS/weak hurricane



Douglas and Elida

Now get ready for this: this is a 12z GFS doomsday scenario, our second since 2012 (last year one GFS run showed back to back Hawaii hurricanes)



Formation



Brings it almost onshore as a major into San Blas and Peutro Vallarta.



Massive. Could topple Puetro Vallarta's bay, which protects it from hurricanes.



Into GOC



Landfall



Elida



NOGAPS keeps it boring

[cycloneye]

The main thing to take from the global models is that they agree on TC formations (1-2) regardless of intensity in the next one thru two weeks in the basin so it will turn very busy.

[Kingarabian]

I've noticed that there is a lot of shear near the possible area of interest. Do you think this will affect its development?

It'll probably develop an anti-cyclone.

[Yellow Evan]

Both GFS ensmeble and CFS show this, but much much further west



Looking ahead, CFS shows MJO returning in late July.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extends for
several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico and
Central America. An area of low pressure is expected to form within
this region of disturbed weather to the south of the coast of Mexico
in a couple of days, and conditions appear favorable for this system
to become a tropical cyclone over the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[hurricanes1234]

Well, here it is. We could very well see Douglas out of this (in my opinion it has a higher chance than 95E).

[Yellow Evan]

Well, here it is. We could very well see Douglas out of this (in my opinion it has a higher chance than 95E).

95E is lone gone. This IMO has a very very good chance at becoming Douglas. I see no reason why it won't.

[Yellow Evan]

Peak for Douglas as a mid-level TS



Landfall



Enters GOC. Almost exactly like Manuel.



Enters Pacific



Hi Elida

[Yellow Evan]

GFS ensemble has Douglas but again, much further west



And then Elida

[Steve820]

This AOI's got some potential. Douglas should come from this later this week, around Friday-Saturday most likely. We might see something big come out of it, but since it will affect Mexico, we shouldn't root for it to become powerful. My predicted peak strength for future-Douglas is around 90-110 mph before landfall in Mexico.

[Yellow Evan]

Formation



Landfall/peak. Is this September?



Elida

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms
extends for several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico and Central America. An area of low pressure is expected to
form in a couple of days within this region of disturbed weather
south of the coast of Mexico, and conditions appear favorable for
this system to become a tropical cyclone this weekend or early next
week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan