2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Alyono]

season is following that GFDL seasonal model prediction where the eastern half of the MDR cranks out many storms. However, they do not threaten the western part of the basin

[Hammy]

Season map (so far) reminds me of a less active version of 2000, when (despite there being no El Nino in that specific instance) there was a pretty big wall of shear from the TUTT in the western Atlantic, so several consecutive storms in August and September died out between 55-65W.

[Steve]

Wasn't it 2000 where there was that crazy southern jet all the way down into Latin America for a while? I'm 80% sure that was the year (unless it was 2001). Sort of a bullseye on the big islands and northern Leewards this year, so it's very positive that even though systems are migrating that way, things are a little too hostile so far.

Fwiw, I'm not one who believes this season ends with Grace. My number of gross named storms (7) is liable to get blown out of the water. For the remainder of the season, you'd have to guess we will get to 10 or 11 named storms based on where we are now. There will probably be another SW Atlantic system, a random storm or 2 and something coming out of the BoC at some point. We are 5 days from the peak and at 7. Count will go higher.

[WPBWeather]

Let's face it. Even the good guessers on Storm2K did not see what was up for 2015. Klotzbach and Gray didn't get too close in their forecasts either. My best guess is that the season runs much longer than I thought it would. How long? Who knows.

[LarryWx]

With Grace having become a TS E of 50W in the MDR, that makes a whopping 4 this season. Looking back at the prior 17 developing strong+ El Nino years, this breaks the old record set in 1899, when there were 3. 1987 had 2. The other 15 had only either 1 or 0! Keep in mind that this includes 6 seasons during the satellite era. So, the record high during the satellite era's 6 developing strong+ El Nino seasons was only 2 til this season's 4! So, 2015 is clearly on its own with regard to storms that formed E of 50W. Furthermore, there's no telling that we're done at 4 being that it is only 9/6.

[galaxy401]

Yeah the MDR is the only favorable region this season. The SAL outbreaks aren't as strong compared to the last couple seasons so storms can form there compared to the hostile Caribbean.

[Hammy]

Wasn't it 2000 where there was that crazy southern jet all the way down into Latin America for a while? I'm 80% sure that was the year (unless it was 2001).

That was indeed 2000. Nothing that formed in the MDR between mid-August and mid-September got out alive.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sorry I haven't posted a whole lot lately, as I've been busy for last month or so with a few things. I've lurked every now and then but just haven't had a chance to give my two cents over anything.

I have to say that the MDR has surprised me this year. It's not unusual to have one or maybe two storms form in this area during an El Nino, even a strong one. Beryl did in 1982 and Erika did in 1997. It also doesn't surprise me that any MDR activity would come in the period between about August 15-September 15.

What does surprise me is the sheer number of storms that have pulled it out, and especially Danny briefly becoming a major hurricane. Now, Grace gives us our fourth consecutive named storm to develop in this region, and despite forecasts, I have a hunch she will go on to briefly become a minimal hurricane before weakening on her westward trek. I was never confident that Danny or Erika would be able to survive the hostile conditions that were/are prevalent in the Caribbean, and I feel the same way about this one as well. Just not the year for long-tracking storms.

From what I recall, at least one model is hinting on another system behind Grace in the coming week or so, is that correct? It would be quite something if it did take place given this strong El Nino, but it is that time of year and this area has been surprisingly favorable, so I could see it happening. I don't know how many more of these we're going to get in this area though, given that the peak is coming and it gets harder after about mid-September for these storms to get going in most non-El Nino years.

Even with this said, I still think the Atlantic will sneak through and get at least two more storms and quite possibly three, maybe even four. However, I think only one or two will become hurricanes, with maybe a major sneaking in there, probably if conditions become more favorable in the Gulf of Mexico. The average number of storms developing in any El Nino year during the satellite era is four, with two becoming hurricanes, and sometimes one major hurricane. All of the majors that have taken place from September forward were in the Gulf of Mexico and they include Betsy in 1965, Anita in 1977, Isidore in 2002, and Lili in 2002.

Of course, none of those events were as strong as this year's, so that is a very iffy proposition indeed. The strongest El Nino events in the satellite era include 1972, 1982, and 1997, and not one of those three years had a single hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico from September moving forward. One must keep in mind though, if this does happen this year, we would be in the midst of a once in at least 50-year event. Last year there were no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico either, and the last time that area went consecutive years without any hurricanes there was....for now 1907 and 1908, unless Cindy in 1963 gets downgraded (a very strong possibility), in which case 1962 and 1963 is the most recent.

Bottom line, despite unfavorable conditions in the Gulf, I would still be ready just in case something does sneak up in the latter part of the season. But appreciate this event if it does take place, because this may not happen again in some of our lifetimes. (Not to mention, be ultra-prepared next year if you live anywhere along the coast if this happens, because a major is almost a foregone conclusion per historical odds to hit somewhere after even one year without a Gulf hurricane, let alone two straight years.)

-Andrew92

[Hammy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sorry I haven't posted a whole lot lately, as I've been busy for last month or so with a few things. I've lurked every now and then but just haven't had a chance to give my two cents over anything.

Something I'll add to this, even for the waves that have not developed, we've seen much stronger tropical waves roll off this year than we have in the past two, maybe even three years, with most coming off as already closed lows with strong deep westerly low-level flow. I think this indicates this reduced activity period we've been in for a few years is ending, and would have this year had it not been for El Nino's strength. This sort of makes me wonder what next year will be like (and almost worry for the coastal residents who may have grown complacent.)

[Hurricaneman]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sorry I haven't posted a whole lot lately, as I've been busy for last month or so with a few things. I've lurked every now and then but just haven't had a chance to give my two cents over anything.

Something I'll add to this, even for the waves that have not developed, we've seen much stronger tropical waves roll off this year than we have in the past two, maybe even three years, with most coming off as already closed lows with strong deep westerly low-level flow. I think this indicates this reduced activity period we've been in for a few years is ending, and would have this year had it not been for El Nino's strength. This sort of makes me wonder what next year will be like (and almost worry for the coastal residents who may have grown complacent.)

My worry is that the waves coming off of africa are stronger than 1997 and if you base the analogs 2016 could be ugly for a US coastal resident if these strong waves continue into the next few years

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ntxw]

Africa (sub Sahara) has had a very wet season. I've always thought because nothing has changed the past few years with consistent ENSO neutral things were very static and unchanging. Nothing to give the atmosphere the injection to alter long term patterns and conditions. This big El Nino is definitely a change and globally a lot of heat and moisture has been put into the global energy budget. Sure the Atlantic may suffer from shear this year (as is typical with significant El Ninos) but it lays a pathway for potentially a big season next year.

As a post I made in the ENSO thread I don't believe this is a late blooming Nino meaning atmospheric conditions won't linger the next year like in 1983 after the 1982 Nino. Should a La Nina arise next summer, could be a big season. Maybe not 2004/2005 type season (a series of big years leading up to the Apex of Atlantic ACE) but not unlike a 1964, 1966, 1995, or 1998.

I took a composite average of all years immediately after an El Nino since 1950. I know Andrew92 put together some data for US impacts after El Nino's in the past so I took it a bit further with ACE.

Average ACE for those years (After El Nino) is a whopping 122. Normal annually is around 93. Many of those years coincidentally are La Nina. So look out next year.

[Andrew92]

Africa (sub Sahara) has had a very wet season. I've always thought because nothing has changed the past few years with consistent ENSO neutral things were very static and unchanging. Nothing to give the atmosphere the injection to alter long term patterns and conditions. This big El Nino is definitely a change and globally a lot of heat and moisture has been put into the global energy budget. Sure the Atlantic may suffer from shear this year (as is typical with significant El Ninos) but it lays a pathway for potentially a big season next year.

As a post I made in the ENSO thread I don't believe this is a late blooming Nino meaning atmospheric conditions won't linger the next year like in 1983 after the 1982 Nino. Should a La Nina arise next summer, could be a big season. Maybe not 2004/2005 type season (a series of big years leading up to the Apex of Atlantic ACE) but not unlike a 1964, 1966, 1995, or 1998.

I took a composite average of all years immediately after an El Nino since 1950. I know Andrew92 put together some data for US impacts after El Nino's in the past so I took it a bit further with ACE.

Average ACE for those years (After El Nino) is a whopping 122. Normal annually is around 93. Many of those years coincidentally are La Nina. So look out next year.

Actually, it's the second year after a traditional El Nino that statistically increases the odds for significant hurricanes in the US. But no matter, the year after is sometimes quite rough too, though usually further south in the Caribbean, Central America, or Mexico....or Bermuda or the Maritimes.

Still, with the real potential to have a rare event of consecutive years with no Gulf hurricanes still quite possible, one should consider what happens when that event subsides. I mentioned the most recent official instance (1907-1908) along with an even more recent likely instance (1962-1963) pending official re-analysis of one storm. So 2016 may be like 1909 or 1964 according to this, and that is not something anyone along the Gulf Coast will want to hear.

The most famous hurricane of 1909 was the Grand Isle Hurricane, but it was far from alone. Another major pounded Texas (I think this was the Velasco Hurricane), while the Keys took one in October, and another major hit just south of the border in Mexico. Another Category 2 also hit near Brownsville that year. And 1964 saw powerful Hilda hit Louisiana, with perhaps less significant overall impacts than one might expect. Isbell also hit southwest Florida in October as likely a Category 2 pending re-analysis.

The Keys storm of 1909 and Isbell demonstrate that this type of path could also easily happen next year if no hurricanes take place in the Gulf this year, just like last year. But 1964 also saw Cleo hit Miami and Dora hit near St. Augustine and Jacksonville....so Florida should watch out.

And 1910 and 1965 are little better. 1910 saw the "Five Days Hurricane" loop around, inundating Cuba, before smashing into Florida. Another Category 2 also hit Texas. And though it was an El Nino, 1965 still featured Betsy, a hit for both South Florida and the New Orleans area as a very destructive hurricane. These two examples, plus 2017 being in the dreaded second year after spot, may very well point to two straight awful seasons for the US, particularly the Gulf Coast....if no hurricanes take place in the Gulf this year.

But there is still a long ways to go this year. I would be absolutely prepared for a big hit this year too just in case if you live along the Gulf Coast (or any coastal location). It has happened before in El Nino years, most recently with Lili in 2002 (going by pressure more than wind), and will happen again someday, maybe this year. Don't be caught off guard.

-Andrew92

[Ntxw]

Actually, it's the second year after a traditional El Nino that statistically increases the odds for significant hurricanes in the US. But no matter, the year after is sometimes quite rough too, though usually further south in the Caribbean, Central America, or Mexico....or Bermuda or the Maritimes.

Yeah I remember that especially with Modoki events according to your posts. For me I was just portraying that ACE for basin as whole activity uptick is looking likely next year. I'm not certain on impacts that's more chance and I'm sure your correlation the year after has some merits as well. Regardless sometime within the next 2 seasons odds are definitely pointing at much more activity.

[NDG]

Africa (sub Sahara) has had a very wet season. I've always thought because nothing has changed the past few years with consistent ENSO neutral things were very static and unchanging. Nothing to give the atmosphere the injection to alter long term patterns and conditions. This big El Nino is definitely a change and globally a lot of heat and moisture has been put into the global energy budget. Sure the Atlantic may suffer from shear this year (as is typical with significant El Ninos) but it lays a pathway for potentially a big season next year.

As a post I made in the ENSO thread I don't believe this is a late blooming Nino meaning atmospheric conditions won't linger the next year like in 1983 after the 1982 Nino. Should a La Nina arise next summer, could be a big season. Maybe not 2004/2005 type season (a series of big years leading up to the Apex of Atlantic ACE) but not unlike a 1964, 1966, 1995, or 1998.

I took a composite average of all years immediately after an El Nino since 1950. I know Andrew92 put together some data for US impacts after El Nino's in the past so I took it a bit further with ACE.

Average ACE for those years (After El Nino) is a whopping 122. Normal annually is around 93. Many of those years coincidentally are La Nina. So look out next year.

Actually, it's the second year after a traditional El Nino that statistically increases the odds for significant hurricanes in the US. But no matter, the year after is sometimes quite rough too, though usually further south in the Caribbean, Central America, or Mexico....or Bermuda or the Maritimes.

Still, with the real potential to have a rare event of consecutive years with no Gulf hurricanes still quite possible, one should consider what happens when that event subsides. I mentioned the most recent official instance (1907-1908) along with an even more recent likely instance (1962-1963) pending official re-analysis of one storm. So 2016 may be like 1909 or 1964 according to this, and that is not something anyone along the Gulf Coast will want to hear.

The most famous hurricane of 1909 was the Grand Isle Hurricane, but it was far from alone. Another major pounded Texas (I think this was the Velasco Hurricane), while the Keys took one in October, and another major hit just south of the border in Mexico. Another Category 2 also hit near Brownsville that year. And 1964 saw powerful Hilda hit Louisiana, with perhaps less significant overall impacts than one might expect. Isbell also hit southwest Florida in October as likely a Category 2 pending re-analysis.

The Keys storm of 1909 and Isbell demonstrate that this type of path could also easily happen next year if no hurricanes take place in the Gulf this year, just like last year. But 1964 also saw Cleo hit Miami and Dora hit near St. Augustine and Jacksonville....so Florida should watch out.

And 1910 and 1965 are little better. 1910 saw the "Five Days Hurricane" loop around, inundating Cuba, before smashing into Florida. Another Category 2 also hit Texas. And though it was an El Nino, 1965 still featured Betsy, a hit for both South Florida and the New Orleans area as a very destructive hurricane. These two examples, plus 2017 being in the dreaded second year after spot, may very well point to two straight awful seasons for the US, particularly the Gulf Coast....if no hurricanes take place in the Gulf this year.

But there is still a long ways to go this year. I would be absolutely prepared for a big hit this year too just in case if you live along the Gulf Coast (or any coastal location). It has happened before in El Nino years, most recently with Lili in 2002 (going by pressure more than wind), and will happen again someday, maybe this year. Don't be caught off guard.

-Andrew92

I really disagree with adding 2002 as analog for 2015.
Conditions in the Caribbean and GOM were nothing close to as bad as they are this September.
Both Lili and Isidore tracked through the Caribbean and strengthened in that area, something it could not happen this year with hostile conditions as they are.

[Andrew92]

Just to clarify, I'm not really trying to say 2002 is an analog for 2015, just saying that year was an El Nino like this year, with a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast, and nothing more. Though that year is considered more of a Modoki admittedly (bud had some traditional El Nino characteristics from time to time).

-Andrew92

[gatorcane]

What El Nino?



000
ABNT20 KNHC 131738
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of disturbed weather associated with a broad low pressure
system located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands is showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward
to northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of disturbed weather has developed in association with a
weak low pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally
conducive for development over the next few days before becoming
unfavorable by late Wednesday. Little movement is expected during
the next couple of days, followed by a slow motion toward the west
or west-northwest on Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon,
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa several
hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this disturbance over the next several days while it moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A small low pressure system located about 975 miles southwest of
the Azores is producing minimal shower activity. Environmental
conditions are becoming unfavorable for development, and tropical
cyclone formation is not expected while the system moves
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[ninel conde]

What El Nino?



000
ABNT20 KNHC 131738
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of disturbed weather associated with a broad low pressure
system located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands is showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward
to northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of disturbed weather has developed in association with a
weak low pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally
conducive for development over the next few days before becoming
unfavorable by late Wednesday. Little movement is expected during
the next couple of days, followed by a slow motion toward the west
or west-northwest on Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon,
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa several
hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this disturbance over the next several days while it moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A small low pressure system located about 975 miles southwest of
the Azores is producing minimal shower activity. Environmental
conditions are becoming unfavorable for development, and tropical
cyclone formation is not expected while the system moves
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

No hurricane west of 60. el nino doing quite well.

[Hammy]

No hurricane west of 60. el nino doing quite well.

Problem with this is that Atlantic activity isn't based on what forms or happens west of 60, it's based on the entire basin, and this year appears that it will end quite active for being El Nino, especially considering it's the strongest on record (or headed that way at least.)

[LarryWx]

With four, 2015 is already the most active on record TS-wise east of 50W in the MDR of the 18 seasons on record with a strong oncoming El Nino, and there could even be two more soon to make six!! 1899 had three and 1987 had two. The other 15 had only either one or zero. So, 2015 could end up in the stratosphere relative to the other 17 years E of 50W within the MDR. These stats include six seasons since satellites have been used (1997, 1991, 1987, 1982, 1972, 1965....five of these had only 1 or 0; the other had 2.)

[Hammy]

:uarrow: With four, 2015 is already the most active on record TS-wise east of 50W in the MDR of the 18 seasons on record with a strong oncoming El Nino

Not to mention Fred was the farthest east MDR hurricane on record.