Possible weak development east of FL this week? (Is 92L)

[Nimbus]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

No low surface pressure yet and an expanding outflow boundery usually means development is not imminent.
Wait.

[tropicwatch]

What you're observing in that loop is an outlfow boundary. When a thunderstorm collapses, it pushes out a rush of air near the surface. This rush of air can often be seen as a ring of low clouds propagating radially outward from the collapsed thunderstorm.

Cool thanks!

[StormingB81]

Local mets already talking about this saying nothing to much just keeping an eye on it

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM develops a tropical storm and moves it over Florida where it moves on a very slow recurve over the peninsula then emerges off NE Florida and becomes a hurricane off the SE US Coast racing NE:

96 hours:


168 hours:

[cycloneye]

An area of showers and thunderstorms just east of the central and
southeastern Bahamas is associated with a weak surface trough of low
pressure. Slow development of this system is possible during the
next few days as it moves west-northwestward or westward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[weatherfanatic]

Hi gatorcane , new to the forum. It is my understanding that the CMC tends to have a bias to blow up almost anything that has a spin, I am not sure I buy this senario at all but if it did happen the EC would be a very close call. As far as I have seen no other models do anything even close to this. But hey then again you never know.

[weatherfanatic]

Yay cyclone eye, I did however have a feeling it would get marked forgot to mention that. Now the watch begins, it actually looks ALOT better than 91L and is in primo waters.

[jhpigott]

An area of showers and thunderstorms just east of the central and
southeastern Bahamas is associated with a weak surface trough of low
pressure. Slow development of this system is possible during the
next few days as it moves west-northwestward or westward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Now that the NHC has noted the disturbance and assigned tropical formation %s, will they tag it as an invest and start running model plots?

[ronjon]

12z CMC animated version - keeps a tropical cyclone over the peninsula over the entire weekend.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014090912/gem_mslp_wind_watl.html

[jlauderdal]

12z CMC animated version - keeps a tropical cyclone over the peninsula over the entire weekend.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014090912/gem_mslp_wind_watl.html

whats the euro do with it...thats the key

[gatorcane]

[Weatherboy1]

Well, it's better than having nothing to watch out there. LOL. But still not seeing much going on here. Will have to see if we can get more convection and some more model support before buying into the idea of a TS inching toward the SE FL coast in a few days. Just my opinion of course.

[gatorcane]

Hi gatorcane , new to the forum. It is my understanding that the CMC tends to have a bias to blow up almost anything that has a spin, I am not sure I buy this senario at all but if it did happen the EC would be a very close call. As far as I have seen no other models do anything even close to this. But hey then again you never know.

Yes the GEM tends to overdoing things, but then again, models can also underdo things too. We have warm SSTS, a favorable upper environment so it could get going with the right conditions. Definitely something to watch as we are now at the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season and we have seen quick spinups in the Bahamas before if you look back in history.

[wxman57]

12z CMC animated version - keeps a tropical cyclone over the peninsula over the entire weekend.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014090912/gem_mslp_wind_watl.html

whats the euro do with it...thats the key

Euro develops a very weak surface low on Thursday and moves it inland into south Florida Friday morning then the SE Gulf Friday evening (with the upper low still overhead). It's only in through 03Z Saturday so far...

[wxman57]

Euro out through 21Z Saturday - weak low (1013mb) west of the Keys (24.5N/83.5W) Saturday afternoon with a moderate cold front reaching the NW Gulf at that time. The very weak surface low is still associated with an upper-level low.

[wxman57]

By Sunday morning, EC has a weak low (1013mb) near 25N/85W just about stationary. Cold front is approaching from the west. That should pick it up and take it back across Florida late this weekend. Chances of a significant TC are low.

[northjaxpro]

Well, the NHC has now mentioned and placed percentages on our area of interest in the Bahamas. Likely to be tagged an invest within the short term.

Models are all coming around to some sort of development within the next 72 hours or possibly sooner.

[wxman57]

And by Tuesday, the Euro has an elongated low/trof moving northward into the central Gulf coast. No significant development.

[jlauderdal]

By Sunday morning, EC has a weak low (1013mb) near 25N/85W just about stationary. Cold front is approaching from the west. That should pick it up and take it back across Florida late this weekend. Chances of a significant TC are low.

thanks 57

everything is else is typical over cooked tropical systems until euro comes onboard...seen this too many times with gfs, uk, cmc, hwrf and on and on making systems into something much bigger then reality

lets see how the euro does every 12 hours

over and out

[StarmanHDB]

Interesting that there really aren't a lot of buoys in the area, but the nearest one (Station 41046, location 23.888N 68.365W....east of the system) has pressure at 1017.6 and falling.

With that little bit of data I now feel important!