Development off SE U.S coast?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure extending from the eastern Gulf
of Mexico eastward across the Florida peninsula and into the
adjacent Atlantic waters is producing disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not favorable for tropical
or subtropical cyclone formation, and development, if any, will
be very slow to occur. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected across
portions of the Florida peninsula through the weekend and into early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila

[NCSTORMMAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure extending from the eastern Gulf
of Mexico eastward across the Florida peninsula and into the
adjacent Atlantic waters is producing disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not favorable for tropical
or subtropical cyclone formation, and development, if any, will
be very slow to occur. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected across
portions of the Florida peninsula through the weekend and into early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila

http://i.imgur.com/CXJ6yQk.png

What do they mean by upper level winds are not favorable? I looked at the shear maps a little while ago and everything near Florida is a small amount of shear at best. Am I looking at something wrong?

[CrazyC83]

Early season storms can often be erratic to forecast. Steering currents are very weak, and a slight change can throw the track off greatly (remember Debby 2012?).

[TheStormExpert]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure extending from the eastern Gulf
of Mexico eastward across the Florida peninsula and into the
adjacent Atlantic waters is producing disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not favorable for tropical
or subtropical cyclone formation, and development, if any, will
be very slow to occur. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected across
portions of the Florida peninsula through the weekend and into early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila

http://i.imgur.com/CXJ6yQk.png

What do they mean by upper level winds are not favorable? I looked at the shear maps a little while ago and everything near Florida is a small amount of shear at best. Am I looking at something wrong?

Upper-level winds are most certainly favorable ATM the way I see it, and these graphics below back that up!

[Hammy]

What do they mean by upper level winds are not favorable? I looked at the shear maps a little while ago and everything near Florida is a small amount of shear at best. Am I looking at something wrong?

I don't really trust their percentages after Claudette being at 10% just ten hours before advisories began.

[CrazyC83]

What do they mean by upper level winds are not favorable? I looked at the shear maps a little while ago and everything near Florida is a small amount of shear at best. Am I looking at something wrong?

I don't really trust their percentages after Claudette being at 10% just ten hours before advisories began.

In the case of Claudette, they likely were thinking this can't last and we can let it go...maybe make it an unnamed TS in post-analysis. But it held on long enough that they had to start advisories. Most likely the genesis point for Claudette is moving back significantly.

[NCSTORMMAN]

What do they mean by upper level winds are not favorable? I looked at the shear maps a little while ago and everything near Florida is a small amount of shear at best. Am I looking at something wrong?

I don't really trust their percentages after Claudette being at 10% just ten hours before advisories began.

At least I am not alone in wondering what they are talking about. Is shear supposed to go back up or something?

[TheStormExpert]

What do they mean by upper level winds are not favorable? I looked at the shear maps a little while ago and everything near Florida is a small amount of shear at best. Am I looking at something wrong?

I don't really trust their percentages after Claudette being at 10% just ten hours before advisories began.

They often underestimate systems. This time though they are really underestimating this, I'd put odds of development around 50-60% ATM.

[TheStormExpert]

What do they mean by upper level winds are not favorable? I looked at the shear maps a little while ago and everything near Florida is a small amount of shear at best. Am I looking at something wrong?

I don't really trust their percentages after Claudette being at 10% just ten hours before advisories began.

In the case of Claudette, they likely were thinking this can't last and we can let it go...maybe make it an unnamed TS in post-analysis. But it held on long enough that they had to start advisories. Most likely the genesis point for Claudette is moving back significantly.

At least they went ahead and named it!

I get tired of seeing in seasons systems going unamed or even only remaining TD's when in reality they once qualified as a TS. TD-2 last season was a perfect example of just that.

BTW, I think you meant Danny not Claudette.

[floridasun78]

if any good of area it bring rain to Florida that need rain

[Hammy]

GFS and GEM only seem to be pushing a very weak low into Alabama/Mississippi near the 240 hour mark, nothing from the frontal system anymore.

[Brent]

Next?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Next?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

So, it is officially done?

[Hurricaneman]

There seems to be too much of the energy stretched out for much to form

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[Hammy]

So, it is officially done?

Nothing is 100% done in the tropics but assuming NHC gets the Euro model before we do, it's very likely based on this that it is no longer showing even the slightest development, and thus none of the models do at this point. They all may as well be tossed for the rest of the season beyond the 48 hour point.

[RL3AO]

Be careful calling out the NHC too much on their TWO forecasts. They missed with the last storm, but when you look at the verification stats, they are really good at these genesis forecasts.

[NCSTORMMAN]

So, it is officially done?

Nothing is 100% done in the tropics but assuming NHC gets the Euro model before we do, it's very likely based on this that it is no longer showing even the slightest development, and thus none of the models do at this point. They all may as well be tossed for the rest of the season beyond the 48 hour point.

In your opinion are the models getting worse each year? They seem to be to me but again I stress that I am no meteorologist.

[Hammy]

So, it is officially done?

Nothing is 100% done in the tropics but assuming NHC gets the Euro model before we do, it's very likely based on this that it is no longer showing even the slightest development, and thus none of the models do at this point. They all may as well be tossed for the rest of the season beyond the 48 hour point.

In your opinion are the models getting worse each year? They seem to be to me but again I stress that I am no meteorologist.

The Euro is generally spot on, though it has a dead period in the medium range (no idea why, but most storms at the 7-10 day mark disappear and show up again at 4-5 day) but it seems to be handling this particular situation extremely poorly, likely due to the elongated nature--it seems to be picking up on different places on the trough and developing them, but has realized so to speak that nothing will come of it. The GFS has an extremely terrible track record over the last several years, up until this year it developed pretty much every low pressure (including non-existent ones weeks out) into major hurricanes, and has essentially failed to develop the three storms we had so far this year into anything more than depressions until it got within 36 hours. So I wouldn't say they are getting worse per se, but the upgrade of the GFS does seem to have made it worse with tropical storms, in addition to this being a difficult systems for models to properly initialize.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Thank you Hammy.


Good analysis and thank you for your time. I am just scratching my head at the flip flopping of these models. I know they do that a lot but with this situation they seem to be all over the place. I still think there is a small chance in my opinion but it is a gut feeling and not a forecast.

[Hammy]

Full Euro run still wants to try to form some sort of low, seemingly elongated and possibly non-tropical, but I'd take it as a grain of salt for the time being.