2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[stormwise]

Arabian Sea GFS signalling a strong cyclone with a landfall in 6 days, Appears to be in the region of Muscat/Sur.
Madden julian signal in IO.




note its the GFS so who knows the next run could be 500 miles in any direction

[cycloneye]

So the upcoming GFS upgrade will not tilt to #1 global model status it appears but with the word (Yet)

RyanMaue · 15m15 minutes ago

GFS model "upgrade" coming on Wednesday at 12z.
This is not a "game-changing" or ECMWF challenging model (yet)

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 9m9 minutes ago

The GFS model will be upgraded at 12Z today. The transition should be seamless with no plot delays, but you never know.

[cycloneye]

Operational GFS has been upgraded.

Statement from NOAA:

Today’s upgrade builds on last year’s significant boost to the GFS, which more than doubled the resolution of the model grid from 27 kilometers to 13 kilometers, resulting in higher resolution model output and more precise weather forecasts and warnings.

Today’s shift to four-dimensional ensemble hybrid data assimilation takes into account how weather systems evolve on a 3-D spatial grid over time, with time now becoming the fourth dimension. This approach makes better use of earth observations used to initialize the model which gives forecasters a more accurate and timely picture of evolving weather situations.

http://www.noaa.gov/noaa%E2%80%99s-prem ... imensional

[cycloneye]

Reactions so far to the upgrade.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 19m19 minutes ago

@TropicalTidbits @BigJoeBastardi internal testing showed it was a little better in both Atlantic/EPac.


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 21m21 minutes ago  Pennsylvania, USA

@EricBlake12 @TropicalTidbits will see when we get it in real time. Not a Denier, just a skeptic

[RL3AO]

Hopefully the 4D-Var assimilation will help limit those crazy dropouts the GFS has on occasion where its skill scores plunge into the 0.7 range. Although, when Maue was tracking the skill scores, the upgraded version was still having some bad runs.

[blp]

I thought they were not going 4D-Var yet, I must have misread it somewhere. That seems like good news, at least they are moving toward the right resolution. Hopefully they are successful because we need another model to compare to the Euro.

[cycloneye]

First result of first run post upgrade looks relatively a good performance.Here are more reactions from the experts.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 12m12 minutes ago

New GFS (red) shows better track/intensity forecasts than 2015 GFS (black)

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 9m9 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 @BigJoeBastardi Interesting - Looks like differences not statistically significant? Hopefully good sign though.


@EricBlake12 · 13m13 minutes ago

@TropicalTidbits @BigJoeBastardi longer range Atlantic yes, otherwise no. Right sign tho







EricBlake12 · 28m28 minutes ago

New GFS (red) shows better TC genesis scores in a 3-yr sample for Atlantic & EPac

[Hammy]

Should we finally stop seeing the endless modelstorms with the latest upgrade?

[crownweather]

Should we finally stop seeing the endless modelstorms with the latest upgrade?

Even though the FAR (False Alarm Ratio) has dropped a little with the new upgrade, it is still 55 percent. So, in my opinion, we should still see a fair number of phantom storms with the upgrade.

[gatorcane]

Comparing model runs of the 06Z GFS (pre-upgrade), 12Z GFS (post-upgrade), and the 12Z ECMWF at 240 hours, one thing we notice is that the upgraded GFS is really blowing up the mid-latitude lows over Novia Scotia which and Northern Atlantic compared to the 06Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF. Consequently the steering for tropical cyclones in the central Atlantic MDR would be different.

[Yellow Evan]

Any idea on what POD stands for in Blake's tweet?

[crownweather]

Any idea on what POD stands for in Blake's tweet?

POD=Percentage of Detection

[TheStormExpert]

We may have to watch the Eastern Gulf of Mexico at the very end of this month if the last four runs of the long-range upgraded GFS is worth anything.

This would also coincide with the CFS which a week or so ago was showing a storm in the Gulf of Mexico around May 28th.

18z GFS 5/11/16


00z GFS 5/12/16


06z GFS 5/12/16


12z GFS 5/12/16

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like some old energy along a sagging front that gets out over the SE Gulf, something to watch perhaps.

[stormwise]

CFS ens

[TheStormExpert]

The 18z GFS shifts development now to the Western Atlantic with a decent TS forming and heading towards Bermuda as it turns Extratropical. Development starts just south of Hispaniola at about 300hrs. or so. I would assume in the next run or so it may very well drop development all together.

18z GFS 5/12/16

[gatorcane]

Didn't take long for the upgraded GFS to spin up a phantom storm

[stormwise]

Didn't take long for the upgraded GFS to spin up a phantom storm

Model solutions all over the place; common theme is need to watch.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Didn't take long for the upgraded GFS to spin up a phantom storm

lol it is only a phantom if it does not happen. Still looks like the pattern is getting ready to become favorable for storms to develop.