Wave between Bermuda and Greater Antilles

[gatorcane]

There is zero model support still for this wave (and ex-96L), I just can't see the NHC mentioning either of these waves in their outlook until we see some model support.

[Gustywind]

There is zero model support still for this wave (and ex-96L), I just can't see the NHC mentioning either of these waves in their outlook until we see some model support.

Great post, very interresting analysis Gatorcane . Imo At least one them could be an invest before Saturday be sure about that. NHC will be in the buisness i hope because something is cooking nicely with these 2 features. Again let's wait and see.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016



Tropical wave extends from 09N35W to 18N34W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 30W-40W with a
maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near 13N.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 34W-43W.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z UKMET shows has this wave recurving in the Bahamas east of Florida. Could be something to watch for development next week:

[Siker]

CMC develops this near Bermuda around 144 hours.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2016

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
20N45W to 07N44W moving west at 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models. Wave is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of
moisture with Saharan dry air and dust NW of the wave, as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is west of the wave axis from 08N-11N between 45W-
48W.

[alienstorm]

Puff gone

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2016

Tropical wave axis in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
20N45W to 14N46W to 07N45W, and is estimated to be moving west
at 20 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700
mb trough as depicted in the global models. It remains embedded
within a low-amplitude surge of moisture with Saharan dry air
and dust evident just northwest through north of the wave, as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered
moderate convection is confined near the southern extent of the
wave axis from 08N-11N between 45W-50W.

[gatorcane]

CMC develops this near Bermuda around 144 hours.

http://i.imgur.com/VRHm45Z.jpg

12Z EC shows some possible development near Bermuda as the wave recurves east of the Bahamas

[Siker]

Yes, same situation as (but much weaker than) last night's CMC, where the wave gets trapped under a building high off of New England.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

Tropical wave extends from 10N-19N with axis near 49W, moving W
at 25-30 kt within the last 24 hours. Even though the wave remains in
a favorable deep layer wind shear region, Saharan dry air and dust
are in the wave environment, thus hindering the development of
deep convection. CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb continue
to show dry air wrapping the northern and western sides of the
wave axis. Isolated showers are possible from 10N-14N between 45W
and 56W.

[colbroe]

Looks like the dust and dry air ,is no longer a factor with this wave .
The last few frames shows that it is wrapping its self up ,just like the previous wave which affected the Norther Leewards islands earlier today.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2016

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along
53W/54W from 9N-19N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as
depicted in the global models and is embedded within a broad
surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 15N-19N between 52W-56W.

[gatorcane]

Suddenly 12Z GEM develops this east of Bahamas and blows it up on the way to Florida as it gets trapped under a ridge:

[SouthFLTropics]

Suddenly 12Z GEM develops this east of Bahamas and blows it up on the way to Florida as it gets trapped under a ridge:

Well that's an attention getter...Not going to put much stock into it though unless the other respectable models follow suit. Especially 7 days out.

SFT

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF showing something similar to the CMC with this wave. Will need to be watched. Gets trapped but ECMWF looks to take it out to sea. CMC could be on to something.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro going with some possible development now off the East coast of the United States. Animated GIF below:

[gatorcane]

This system might get interesting to watch. I should also add the NAVGEM has been showing development in consecutive runs up until the 12Z run where it dropped it.

While the ECMWF keeps this system offshore the east coast of the United States, all the global model guidance is suggesting that the Bermuda High will build back in starting early next week in the wake of the upper-level system that swings through Eastern North America over the weekend. The CMC traps this wave under the building Bermuda High which consequently shoves the wave west into Florida (with development). The ECMWF also builds in the Bermuda High but this wave has just made it far enough north not to get trapped underneath so only turns to the WNW temporarily off the Carolinas where we see development take place.

[TheStormExpert]

00z CMC still at it with a decent hurricane now into East-Central Florida next Friday, I believe the UKMET has joined in on it's 00z run with developing this wave too.

[floridasun78]

i going north fl by Daytona beach good thing this happen week before i go