2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[NDG]

[SFLcane]

waters as always will plenty warm come june BUT it might not matter when every other ingredient is pointing hostile.

[cycloneye]

Very dense sal outbreak going on.Let's see how many of these dense ones occur during the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

Very interesting stat about the GOM warm ssts.

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/847811431663894528

[Hurricaneman]

Very interesting stat about the GOM warm ssts.

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/847811431663894528

Thats quite impressive and we're lucky that not much in the way of strong tropical cyclone have hit that bath water the last few years and the funny thing is the previous record was before this current streak which the previous streak ended in late April I believe

[gatorcane]

We almost had that strong tropical cyclone in the Gulf last year. But the surface low ended up staying just inland along the northern Gulf coast. Models such as the UKMET were really blowing it up. Very fortunate the surface low didn't stay over water. Even though it was inland, it was quite impressive since it had a near perfect upper environment.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Tropical Atlantic is zapped of vertical instability for like the 6th year running...

[Alyono]

We almost had that strong tropical cyclone in the Gulf last year. But the surface low ended up staying just inland along the northern Gulf coast. Models such as the UKMET were really blowing it up. Very fortunate the surface low didn't stay over water. Even though it was inland, it was quite impressive since it had a near perfect upper environment.

Baton Rouge should not complain at all that they flooded last year

They were going to flood no matter what. The only question was would there be 150 mph winds and a 20 foot surge to go along with the flooding

[PTrackerLA]

We almost had that strong tropical cyclone in the Gulf last year. But the surface low ended up staying just inland along the northern Gulf coast. Models such as the UKMET were really blowing it up. Very fortunate the surface low didn't stay over water. Even though it was inland, it was quite impressive since it had a near perfect upper environment.

Baton Rouge should not complain at all that they flooded last year

They were going to flood no matter what. The only question was would there be 150 mph winds and a 20 foot surge to go along with the flooding

I've seen so many articles shared about that system and how it could be the new normal in a changing climate but I think most people fail to understand that it was simply an inland tropical cyclone for all intents and purposes. As bad as the flooding was.... and unlike anything I've experienced in my lifetime...a slow moving hurricane in 1940 sent the Vermilion river in Lafayette 7 FEET higher than the August 2016 flood which now ranks as the #2 all time crest. We'll always have the threat for events like that living along the Gulf coast.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940_Louisiana_hurricane

[cycloneye]

Big sal outbreak going on at this time on early April.So far in 2017 there have been some big outbreaks.Will those continue thru the Summer months?

[cycloneye]

Negative AMO is another factor that does not help to have plenty of activity.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/849371006133252098

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/849404409058611201




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/849406240404983810

[Kingarabian]

Waters in the vacinity of Hawaii have been anamously warm, well in line with 2015 and 2016. Expecting more activity for Hawaii to watch for.

[gatorcane]

Big sal outbreak going on at this time on early April.So far in 2017 there have been some big outbreaks.Will those continue thru the Summer months?

http://i.imgur.com/mommStD.jpg

NWS Miami indicated a Saharan Air layer impacting South Florida today...in April?

974
FXUS62 KMFL 062013 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
413 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

UPDATE...
Updated for the fire section below.


.DISCUSSION...
Some Saharan air has worked into South Florida early this
afternoon which has helped to keep the atmosphere somewhat stable.
This has allowed for the line of showers and thunderstorms over
the western areas of South Florida early this afternoon to fall
apart as it moved westward through South Florida.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

[vbhoutex]

Yep, Dr. Klotzbach talked about the SAL during his presentation today. It's looking like we may have a slightly below normal season with the current cooling going on in the Atlantic Basin. Of course the caveat on that may be the very warm Western GOM. Also looking like we may be heading back to El Nino by August or September, but nothing like the last one.

[weathaguyry]

In my personal opinion, I just can't see why everyone is so confident about an el-nino coming along. There is a pocket of cold water in the subsurface around 160W, and even around 180 there is a fairly unimpressive blob of warm water, that has sort of just sat there for a while, the surface skin temperatures are warm, but even they are starting to cool down at a good pace. I don't see where this El-Nino is magically going to come from, and that's why I put my seasonal forecast at 16/8/4 with an ACE of 166, I see some good warming in the atlantic and we could possibly see a pretty big season coming up. I for sure know that the MDR is going to be primarily dead, along with the trend from the last few years. But what scares me is the fact that seasons where the activity is shifted west (1938, 1944, 1960, 1985 comes to mind) There have been storms that ride ALL THE WAY up the east coast, not just up to NC and bail, but the ones that ride up to New England, those are very dangerous and can be even more devastating to areas up north that aren't used to that kind of wind and flooding, because up here we can't just close the shutters and call it a day... We shall see what this season has to offer .

[vbhoutex]

In my personal opinion, I just can't see why everyone is so confident about an el-nino coming along. There is a pocket of cold water in the subsurface around 160W, and even around 180 there is a fairly unimpressive blob of warm water, that has sort of just sat there for a while, the surface skin temperatures are warm, but even they are starting to cool down at a good pace. I don't see where this El-Nino is magically going to come from, and that's why I put my seasonal forecast at 16/8/4 with an ACE of 166, I see some good warming in the atlantic and we could possibly see a pretty big season coming up. I for sure know that the MDR is going to be primarily dead, along with the trend from the last few years. But what scares me is the fact that seasons where the activity is shifted west (1938, 1944, 1960, 1985 comes to mind) There have been storms that ride ALL THE WAY up the east coast, not just up to NC and bail, but the ones that ride up to New England, those are very dangerous and can be even more devastating to areas up north that aren't used to that kind of wind and flooding, because up here we can't just close the shutters and call it a day... We shall see what this season has to offer .

I find your analysis and for that matter your confidence interesting and maybe surprising after talking with Dr. Philip Klotzbach and watching his presentation at the National Tropical Weather Conference last week. Contrary to your statement, he showed details that indicate that the Atlantic is currently cooling in many areas. As far as the MDR being dead, I'm not sure that is the correct wording to use, but there is some agreement there that it is not going to be an area conducive to cyclogenesis as it has been in the past. Also there has already been one SAL outbreak recently and we aren't even to hurricane season yet and we all know how hard SAL outbreaks can be on cyclogenesis. This would appear to be another damping factor on the formation of TCs in the Atlantic basin. Where it appears we come closer to agreement is about the formation of another El Nino. Dr. Klotzbach feels that the probability of even a moderate El Nino forming, at least anytime prior to the August/September time frame, isn't very likely. His report and his numbers are elsewhere on the site in the expert Hurricane Season predictions thread. Indeed it will be interesting to watch the Hurricane Season unfold this year considering those factors and even what many see as a strange weather pattern that has set up across the CONUS. With all that being said, I do think we will have almost an average season as opposed to a slow one and that we will be more prone to home grown systems this season. I've posted my numbers and some of my reasoning in the numbers poll thread.

[weathaguyry]

In my personal opinion, I just can't see why everyone is so confident about an el-nino coming along. There is a pocket of cold water in the subsurface around 160W, and even around 180 there is a fairly unimpressive blob of warm water, that has sort of just sat there for a while, the surface skin temperatures are warm, but even they are starting to cool down at a good pace. I don't see where this El-Nino is magically going to come from, and that's why I put my seasonal forecast at 16/8/4 with an ACE of 166, I see some good warming in the atlantic and we could possibly see a pretty big season coming up. I for sure know that the MDR is going to be primarily dead, along with the trend from the last few years. But what scares me is the fact that seasons where the activity is shifted west (1938, 1944, 1960, 1985 comes to mind) There have been storms that ride ALL THE WAY up the east coast, not just up to NC and bail, but the ones that ride up to New England, those are very dangerous and can be even more devastating to areas up north that aren't used to that kind of wind and flooding, because up here we can't just close the shutters and call it a day... We shall see what this season has to offer .

I find your analysis and for that matter your confidence interesting and maybe surprising after talking with Dr. Philip Klotzbach and watching his presentation at the National Tropical Weather Conference last week. Contrary to your statement, he showed details that indicate that the Atlantic is currently cooling in many areas. As far as the MDR being dead, I'm not sure that is the correct wording to use, but there is some agreement there that it is not going to be an area conducive to cyclogenesis as it has been in the past. Also there has already been one SAL outbreak recently and we aren't even to hurricane season yet and we all know how hard SAL outbreaks can be on cyclogenesis. This would appear to be another damping factor on the formation of TCs in the Atlantic basin. Where it appears we come closer to agreement is about the formation of another El Nino. Dr. Klotzbach feels that the probability of even a moderate El Nino forming, at least anytime prior to the August/September time frame, isn't very likely. His report and his numbers are elsewhere on the site in the expert Hurricane Season predictions thread. Indeed it will be interesting to watch the Hurricane Season unfold this year considering those factors and even what many see as a strange weather pattern that has set up across the CONUS. With all that being said, I do think we will have almost an average season as opposed to a slow one and that we will be more prone to home grown systems this season. I've posted my numbers and some of my reasoning in the numbers poll thread.

I see what you mean, most of my confidence comes from some analysis on Tropical Tidbits and some other websites, Dr. Philip Klotzbach probably had access to more advanced data and models that I don't have access to. And that may be why him and a lot of professional meteorologists are confident with a near average, western biased year. I personally don't think that El- Nino will come, and that we will have an above average season, but then again I am not a professional meteorologist, I am only a 13 year old weather geek

[Patrick99]

Are the SST anomalies in the Atlantic looking *that* cool? Looks to me like they've been trending steadily upward since the last time a map was posted just 1 week ago. There may be other suppressing factors of course, but I can't really see the ocean temperatures in the MDR being a problem.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

[TheStormExpert]

SST's are very rarely a problem in the Atlantic basin, except maybe in the far Eastern Atlantic but at the very most that usually delays development until further west which won't matter much if other factors are unfavorable.