2014 EPAC Season

[hurricanes1234]

0z CMC makes Elida and Fausto fairly deep. I can't tell which is which though. Also kinda suggests at a third system.

Isn't Elida supposed to move out to sea without intensifying?

[Yellow Evan]

0z CMC makes Elida and Fausto fairly deep. I can't tell which is which though. Also kinda suggests at a third system.

Isn't Elida supposed to move out to sea without intensifying?

That's what the NHC thinks. The Canadians are in disagreement.

[Yellow Evan]

I made this. GFS model suggets lower wind shear, so I think the train of storms will continue for another while. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

[Kingarabian]

Douglas should help moisten up the environment for the storms that follow it.

[Yellow Evan]

Douglas should help moisten up the environment for the storms that follow it.

Elida especially. I'm somewhat puzzled why there's been so much dry air this season though.

[Kingarabian]

Douglas should help moisten up the environment for the storms that follow it.

Elida especially. I'm somewhat puzzled why there's been so much dry air this season though.

Same here. Epac dry air comes from cool ocean waters. Shouldn't be the case this year.

[Yellow Evan]

Douglas should help moisten up the environment for the storms that follow it.

Elida especially. I'm somewhat puzzled why there's been so much dry air this season though.

Same here. Epac dry air comes from cool ocean waters. Shouldn't be the case this year.

Maybe due to the multi-year La Ninas which created an epic drought in CA also lead to more dry air than normal.

[Yellow Evan]

On a trivia note, Elida is the earliest 5th storm since Celia 92. Impressive. Moreover, for the 5th time in history, there has been 5 EPAC storms pre-July. Other years were 1992, 1990, 1984, and 1985. Imagine if 90E developed in early May. 4 EPAC storms in June ties for 2nd most, behind 1985 and tied with 1990. 1992 and 1984 each saw 3 storms in June.

[hurricanes1234]

I wonder what the models are showing in terms of Fausto and beyond, seeing that these two storms likely won't be doing much but lingering around, weakening and fluctuating in strength.

[Yellow Evan]

I wonder what the models are showing in terms of Fausto and beyond, seeing that these two storms likely won't be doing much but lingering around, weakening and fluctuating in strength.

12z GFS dropped it, but 6z showed this:

[hurricanes1234]

I wonder if the EPAC will be entering a lull soon?

[Yellow Evan]

I wonder if the EPAC will be entering a lull soon?

GFS sorta hints at something in a week.

[Yellow Evan]

1. A low pressure area could form well to the south of southwestern
Mexico by early next week, and some development of this system is
possible thereafter while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS shows Fuasto. In a very very favorable environment. However, the more northerly than average ITCZ (and close proximity to the ITCZ) could cause problems. For the season as a whole, that and vertical instability being slghtly higher than nomral (typial for El Ninoyes early on though) are my lone concerns about the season



Euro hints at something as well.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

A low pressure area could form well to the south of southwestern
Mexico by early next week, and some development of this system is
possible thereafter while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

A low pressure area could form well to the south of southwestern
Mexico by early next week, and some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[hurricanes1234]

Considering the past two storms have been weak, I won't yet expect much out of this.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Douglas, located several hundred miles west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula of Mexico.

A low pressure area could form well south-southwest or southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by early next
week. Some gradual development of this system is possible after
that while it moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[hurricanes1234]

Down from 30% to 20% in 5 days. Possible very weak system out of this?

[Kingarabian]

Well at least for the areas near Mexico, dry air shouldn't be a problem anymore thanks to Douglas.