2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Ntxw]

Joaquin, along with the strength of the waves during Aug/Sep, makes me wonder what this year would've been without El Nino.

One thing is for sure, dry air is a thing of the past. Not just around the Atlantic, the globe as a whole. The El Nino has definitely pumped lots of moisture into the global atmosphere I'd think, something I was wondering a few years ago needing a shake up in ENSO.

[JtSmarts]

Joaquin, along with the strength of the waves during Aug/Sep, makes me wonder what this year would've been without El Nino.

Someone said it would have been like a redux of 2004 and I agree. 2016 might be a season for the ages.

[Yellow Evan]

Joaquin, along with the strength of the waves during Aug/Sep, makes me wonder what this year would've been without El Nino.

Someone said it would have been like a redux of 2004 and I agree. 2016 might be a season for the ages.

Not if the -AMO continues.

[NDG]

The -NAO at least during the last couple of months was based in the eastern Atlantic, it makes a big difference. This pattern was very similar to 2004 (the ridging in SE Canada and the weakness all the way in the NE Atlantic). If we get the same pattern next year we would be in trouble, but of course many things can change.

[Ptarmigan]

Joaquin, along with the strength of the waves during Aug/Sep, makes me wonder what this year would've been without El Nino.

One thing is for sure, dry air is a thing of the past. Not just around the Atlantic, the globe as a whole. The El Nino has definitely pumped lots of moisture into the global atmosphere I'd think, something I was wondering a few years ago needing a shake up in ENSO.

One thing I notice is that seasons following El Nino tend to be active like 1988, 1995, 1998, 2005, and 2010.

[WPBWeather]

Early indications of 2016 are not good--see long range climate models--so I hope it does not verify.

However, Joaquin and other storms should point out to people who have lack of activity issues with the MDR and the ATL should take pause.

[Ntxw]

Joaquin has added 17.225 units of ACE to the seasonal total to bring it up to 46.2725 to date. This single storm makes up about 60% of the season, very impressive hurricane. This ranks 2015 in between 1973 (43 units) and 2009 (53 units)

[WeatherEmperor]

Early indications of 2016 are not good--see long range climate models--so I hope it does not verify.

However, Joaquin and other storms should point out to people who have lack of activity issues with the MDR and the ATL should take pause.

Can you elaborate on 2016? Are you saying next year will be more active?


Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

[WPBWeather]

Early indications of 2016 are not good--see long range climate models--so I hope it does not verify.

However, Joaquin and other storms should point out to people who have lack of activity issues with the MDR and the ATL should take pause.

Can you elaborate on 2016? Are you saying next year will be more active?


Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

I'll post a link to the CFS V2 sites later. They predict a bad 2016, if they are to be believed.

All this has been noted by J Bastardi on WeatherBell and Eric Blake and Michael Ventrice on Twitter already.

[Hurricaneman]

Early indications of 2016 are not good--see long range climate models--so I hope it does not verify.

However, Joaquin and other storms should point out to people who have lack of activity issues with the MDR and the ATL should take pause.

Can you elaborate on 2016? Are you saying next year will be more active?


Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

I'll post a link to the CFS V2 sites later. They predict a bad 2016, if they are to be believed.

All this has been noted by J Bastardi on WeatherBell and Eric Blake and Michael Ventrice on Twitter already.

Thats what I'm expecting a high impact year in 2016 but I'll give more details in December when I give a general first forecast for 2016 and in addition will start the 2016 version of this thread at that point

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[WPBWeather]

I'll look forward to your future posts then HM. Hope it's not too high impact in 2016 though.

[gatorcane]

The SW Caribbean looks like an area to watch towards the mid October-time frame. We can see the wet phase of the MJO looks to be moving over the region though the core is over the EPAC. The GFS and ensembles seem to be latching on to something possibly forming there starting in the the 10-12 day timeframe. Climatology, this area is favored as we move through October:

[Yellow Evan]

MJO has been in dead circle since July. However, from time to time, a CCKW will pass through the region.

With all the shear in the Caribbean, good luck getting a TC there.

[NDG]

Shear has really led up some over the Caribbean lately, as the subtropical jet gets going over the next few weeks over the southern US it means that conditions may stay conducive over the Caribbean.

[WPBWeather]

NDG: Are you trying to confuse us with actual evidence and not unsupported statements?? Naughty!

[Hammy]

I don't think I've seen shear that low in the NW Caribbean for quite some time.

[gatorcane]

I don't think I've seen shear that low in the NW Caribbean for quite some time.

Agreed this is the most favorable I have seen the Western and NW Caribbean all season and just in time for October where this region is climatologically-favored. The question is what will the shear look like in around 10-14 days as that is when GFS is starting to show something developing in this area:

[Hurricaneman]

The SW Caribbean is the place to watch the next few weeks as there seems to be a period of low shear there possible

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[LarryWx]

HM,
Agreed. The 0Z GFS fwiw does suggest low shear in mid Oct.

Also, let's look at some 1851-2009 based climo here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#ori10

Counting the dots on each panel for each 10 (11) day period for these 159 years, the five busiest for genesis in the Caribbean west of 77.5 W are as follows:

10/11-20: 35
10/1-10: 32
9/21-30: 18
6/11-20: 12
10/21-31: 12

So, one can see how much more active for genesis is 10/1-20 than any other period in the W Caribbean. For 2015 per the GFS, we're keying in on 10/11-20. 35 geneses over 159 years (with some likely missed before the satellite era) is a lot for such a small area over just a ten day period. As HM, Gator, and many others know, that's why especially FL, Caymans, Jamaica, and Cuba have to watch this area of the basin so carefully early to mid Oct.

Edit: Out of the 35 W. Caribbean 10/11-20 geneses, a worrisome 13 hit S or C FL as a H with the hit dates centered on 10/20:

1865, 1870, 1876, 1878, 1904, 1921, 1924, 1926, 1944, 1950, 1968, 1999, 2005 or one every 12 years

Note, however, that although 3 of these 13 were during El Niño (1876, 1904, 1968), they were during weak first year ones fwiw.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm actually quite surprised at how well this season has done in spite of a Super Nino, Didnt think that the MDR in any way, shape or form would be active

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products