ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Very big news here.This El Nino is up there with the biggies of the past.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 29m29 minutes ago
Weekly Nino 3 index at 2.3C. Only two El Ninos since 1950 have had monthly Nino 3 values >= 2.3C ('82-'83, '97-'98).

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Goodness.

[WeatherGuesser]

If it gives me a mild winter with little or no snow, I'm all for it.

[cycloneye]

BoM has El Nino stronger.

El Niño continues to strengthen

Issued on 21 July 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The 2015 El Niño continues to develop. Weakened (or reversed) trade winds have resulted in further warming over much of the tropical Pacific Ocean. All key ENSO ocean monitoring areas have been more than 1 °C above average for 10 successive weeks—two weeks longer than the record in 1997. The eastern tropical Pacific is now at or exceeding +2 °C. In the atmosphere, the past week has seen the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) drop to around −20, the lowest values of the event so far.

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate El Niño is likely to strengthen, and is expected to persist into early 2016. El Niño events typically peak during the late austral spring or early summer, and then weaken in the new year.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Ntxw]

Another big WWB is about to come to the dateline. Models are trending stronger as they have with all the previous ones, wow.

[Ntxw]

These are anoms, but there is actual west winds. Guidance has been trending upward each run

[Ntxw]

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is +3.01

The only Nino with ESPI bimonthly of a value >3 is 1997.

[cycloneye]

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is +3.01

The only Nino with ESPI bimonthly of a value >3 is 1997.

That reading is mighty impressive.

[WeatherGuesser]

All I want to know is how much wood and propane to have on hand for this winter.

[NDG]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8&sns=em[/youtube]

Too funny.

[Ntxw]

We are actually tracking very in proximity path to 1997. Side by side the pool underneath in 1997 in July is a bit stronger due to the KW starting in June of that year and maturing, but the thermocline slope difference is really less than 50m, even half that, as the KW continues to push it will get close. At the surface, this similar week in 1997 actually stair steps and cools as it pushes 2C into August. The big warming then resumed in September into fall. By August the 2 should remain fairly similar in ENSO 3.4 region. The big difference is 1+2 which 1997 beats 2015 and this year's warmth is more spread out between all four regions.





And if you're still wondering or questioning it (and there are still a few meteorologists who do) the Nino has seen moderate weekly readings since late April >1C and near or above strong since mid June. Lets say it collapses from this on forward, we would still see a 1987-1988 esque event at the lower end scenario.

[Hurricaneman]

The current 30 day SOI is -14.44
The current 90 day soi is -11.83
The July 26th conribution of the SOI is -12.56

These are solid El Nino numbers and this is one of the detirminations of El Nino Conditions

The MJO is disjointed in the circle expected to hit phase 1 breifly but back into the circle

The new downwelling kelvin wave seems to be kind of on the weaker side but still there while the old Kelvin wave is headed back to the CPAC maybe to surface making a run at Super Nino status

so based on these it is a positive for El Nino growth

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ntxw]

Nudge down to 1.6C this week

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC update of 7/27/15 that has Nino 3.4 at =1.6C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[weatherdude1108]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8&sns=em[/youtube]

Too funny.

He was so funny!

[Ptarmigan]

Why a ‘super El Niño’ could still be a bust for California drought relief
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... ht-relief/

[Hurricaneman]

The current SOI is

90 day -11.85
30 day -13.66
July 27th -17.17

[Dean_175]

Another strong WWB coming:

[Ntxw]

Another strong WWB coming:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ven ... .5S-5N.gif

Nothing is a guarantee, but I'd say this is going to see >2C here in about 2-4 weeks.

[Hurricaneman]

Current SOI

90 day -12.12
30 day -13.24
July 29 -31.76

this plus the WWB might put EL Nino above +2 for the first time since January 1998 at some point

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products