ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[LarryWx]

1) The quieting effect of El Nino vs. non-Nino on the US Gulf coast is more evident when one just looks at either only seasons with multiple US Gulf H hits or just major US Gulf H hits:

a. Multiple US Gulf H hit seasons, alone:
- Non-Nino: 9 seasons of 43 (21%) with 2+ US Gulf H hits: 1950, 1964, 1979, 1985, 1989, 1995, 1998, 2005, and 2008; 3 seasons with 3+

- Nino: only 1 season out of 22 (5%) with 2+ US Gulf H hits: 2004; no seasons with 3+ hits


b. Major H US Gulf hits, alone:

- non-Nino: 19 hits in 43 seasons (0.44 per season)
- El Nino: 5 hits in 22 seasons (only 0.23 per season or about half the non-Nino rate)

2) When looking at the % of seasons with 1+ US GOM H hits, the difference is very small: 27 of 43 (63%) non-Nino v. 13 of 22 (59%) Nino. So, much of the difference is due to seasons with multiple hits, alone. Also, a sig. higher % of these H hits were major hits during non-Nino vs. Nino.

[euro6208]

Another strong WWB coming:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ven ... .5S-5N.gif

Nothing is a guarantee, but I'd say this is going to see >2C here in about 2-4 weeks.

Seems like with all of these great WWB occuring, the WPAC goes nuts and is the basin that feels it's full effects...Now expecting another monster typhoon...

[Dean_175]

Article says no "super" El Nino expected this year: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015- ... 455971.htm


The reasoning doesn't really make much sense to me even though its coming from a weather expert from the China Meteorological Administration. Its saying that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific are under 2C and so the waters are too cool for a "super" El Nino to develop. But isn't that what a "super" El Nino is - when the ONI exceeds 2C for 3 consecutive months? So it seems to be saying that a "super" El Nino won't develop because we aren't currently observing one. By that logic, 1997 and 1982 wouldn't have become "super" Ninos either- as neither of those had hit 2.0C by this time of the year either.


Its also saying that the warming will "decay" soon - but also says that the El Nino will continue to strengthen. Which is it?


I'm not saying a super El Nino will definitely develop- but the nino3.4 anomaly for July will be over 1.5C - and it will only take a little more strengthening to hit 2C early enough to see 3 ONIs above the threshold for a super El Nino. We are close to 1997 in terms of nino3.4 temps at this time of year, as well as subsurface temperatures. Except 1997 did have much warmer waters in the far east Pacific- -which possibly allowed for more warming of 3.4 as those anomalies slowly grew westward.

[NDG]

Yeah the whole article does not make sense to also say the below quote:

He said El Nino is likely to reach a strong magnitude this year and last for 20 months, a historically rare phenomenon.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Yeah the whole article does not make sense to also say the below quote:

He said El Nino is likely to reach a strong magnitude this year and last for 20 months, a historically rare phenomenon.

Plenty of contradictions in that article, unfortunately.

[Hurricaneman]

SOI index
90 day -12.75
30 day -13.57
July 31 -21.91

still pretty negative and a sign that El Nino will be with us for a while

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ONI for MJJ will be anywhere from 1.1-1.3 above normal, making it the first trimonthly reading of a bona fide moderate El Niño

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10 ... dcdebec471

What hindered El nino in 2014? Have a read

[Hurricaneman]

soi index

90 day -13.32
30 day -13.05
Aug 2nd -29.62

The last few days have been deeply negative so thats a major El Nino signal and even a sign of strengthening with the WWB and Kelvin wave and some of those + subsurface anomalies are surfacing which is also causing the El Nino to strengthen at the moment

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ntxw]

Back up to 1.7C this week. Should be lots of updates the next few days of various indexes for July as we are in the beginning of a new month. Something to look forward to seeing is the MEI, ONI, and EQSOI

Daily SOI has been tanking, the reason why 30 day hasn't gone as low quickly is because we lost just as many big numbers with the moving days. We will knock out previous +'s this week so it should head south quickly again.

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC update that has Nino 3.4 at +1.7C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[AJC3]

So, if my ball park calculations are close, the weeklies yield a monthly fairly close to +1.6C (+1.58C). This, in turn, results in consecutive monthlies of +0.87C (May), +0.97C (June), and (wow) +1.58C (July), which would push the ONI tercile for MJJ up to +1.1C (+1.14C).

Feel free to correct me if I messed something up.

[Dean_175]

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1002/2015GL064899/asset/grl53275.pdf?v=1&t=icuqrss7&s=80103e8a2bd0ebf2727d9d81a9eecedcdebec471

What hindered El nino in 2014? Have a read

The link doesn't work.

[Hurricaneman]

soi index

90 day -13.64
30 day -13.29
Aug 3 -37.87

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The 2015 El Niño is now well-established and continues to strengthen. In the coming weeks, the central tropical Pacific Ocean (the NINO3.4 region) may exceed the peak values reached during the 2002 and 2009 El Niño events, but current anomalies remain well short of the 1982 and 1997 peaks. Note that peak values are normally recorded late in the year. Trade winds remain weakened and are likely to contribute to more warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Other indicators such as cloudiness near the Date Line, the Southern Oscillation Index, and sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain typical of an established El Niño.
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology all indicate that El Niño will continue to strengthen, and persist into early 2016. Typically, El Niño peaks during the late austral spring or early summer, and weakens in the following year.
El Niño is usually associated with below-average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. However, El Niño is not the only influence on rainfall and temperature; other factors, such as sea surface temperatures to the north of Australia and in the Indian Ocean, also affect Australia's climate.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. A positive IOD event remains possible, with three of the five international models indicating a positive IOD is likely during late winter to spring. A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The latest NINO3.4 forecasts (initialised in July) indicate that sea surface temperatures across the central tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to persist at above El Niño thresholds through until the end of 2015. The all-model average NINO3.4 outlook for October is just above +2.6 °C, increasing to +2.7 °C by December. Since the start of the satellite era of ocean observations in the late 1970's, NINO3.4 values this large have only been observed during the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events. Individual model values range between +2.2 °C and +3.4 °C for December; all well above the El Niño threshold and indicative of a substantial El Niño.
The most recent NINO3.4 value is +1.5 °C for the week ending 12 July 2015. NINO3.4 values above +0.8 °C typically occur during El Niño events.
The following graph shows the average forecast value of NINO3.4 for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, there is an increased risk of La Niña. Similarly, if the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, there is an increased chance of El Niño.

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 21m21 minutes ago
Surprisingly, latest wly wind burst is strongest for the #ElNino, leading to the highest heat content so far #climate

[Ntxw]

So, if my ball park calculations are close, the weeklies yield a monthly fairly close to +1.6C (+1.58C). This, in turn, results in consecutive monthlies of +0.87C (May), +0.97C (June), and (wow) +1.58C (July), which would push the ONI tercile for MJJ up to +1.1C (+1.14C).

Feel free to correct me if I messed something up.

You came pretty close 1.0C is officlal ONI for MJJ, noting that the new subset (ERSSTv4 is a little less than the previous subset) so the weeklies may seem a little higher. This matches 1997 as the highest since that period for MJJ. The previous ERSSTv3 subset shows 1.1C which is what it would've been a few months ago.

Monthly SOI for July came in at -14.7 which is lower than 1997 for the same month at -9.5 however that year was coming off a couple of -20+ for May and June.

[Ntxw]

Sub-surface post

We are getting very close to 1997's subsurface plots. A little warmer then far to the east but the central Pacific is just as warm if not warmer.



1997



By late fall and winter of 1997 it became this, the eastern Pacific was warmer than the western Pacific below. I suspect this is where we are slowly heading



If you watch this loop since March, it's cool to see the water slow and gradually head east over the many weeks to it's current location.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnection ... dyear=2015

[AJC3]

So, if my ball park calculations are close, the weeklies yield a monthly fairly close to +1.6C (+1.58C). This, in turn, results in consecutive monthlies of +0.87C (May), +0.97C (June), and (wow) +1.58C (July), which would push the ONI tercile for MJJ up to +1.1C (+1.14C).

Feel free to correct me if I messed something up.

You came pretty close 1.0C is officlal ONI for MJJ, noting that the new subset (ERSSTv4 is a little less than the previous subset) so the weeklies may seem a little higher. This matches 1997 as the highest since that period for MJJ. The previous ERSSTv3 subset shows 1.1C which is what it would've been a few months ago.

Monthly SOI for July came in at -14.7 which is lower than 1997 for the same month at -9.5 however that year was coming off a couple of -20+ for May and June.

Thanks. So it looks like the two prior monthly SSTA data that I took from here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... .ascii.txt

...for May and June are fine.

It's just the number I ball parked for July (+1.58C) was too high, since the weeklies are taken from the older dataset. In order to bring the MJJ tercile down from what I arrived at (+1.14C) to the official value +1.02C seen at:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/oni.data

...then the actual monthly 3.4 SSTA for July would have had to be somewhere around +1.22C instead of +1.58C. +0.36C is a pretty big difference between datasets.

[+1.02C*3 - (+0.97C + 0.87C)] = +1.22C