ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

If this holds true, our first 2C+ reading could be next Monday. The image source below is derived from the same OISSTv2 data used in the weeklies. If so this El Nino will be in the rare class with the big boys, and should that happen by October we may be counting this as a Super El Nino.



In terms of the sub-surface it has the fuel just as 1997 did.





Even with an epic collapse from here on out, would still be enough for strong event though a bigger event is probable.

[euro6208]

Another WWB just happened that well didn't seem too strong in the models but ended up more potent. Its becoming so common not even a big deal it seems.

Should continue with the Typhoons. Will these large typhoons continue into Nov? Possible buckle of Jet stream?

Crazy...

Models are modeling 2 extreme intensities Cat 5's Sub 900 mb's Goni and Atsani simultaneously, last time this occurred worldwide was back in October 1997 also in the WPAC...

[Ntxw]

Here is a Himawari image of the potential super twins. Wonder if they will kick start another WWB? Looks like they might.

[euro6208]

:uarrow: Here is a Himawari image of the potential super twins. Wonder if they will kick start another WWB? Looks like they might.

Here is what October 1997 in the WPAC delivered. Ivan and Joan at 160 knots...





Potential fujiwhara between Goni and Atsani, eerily similiar in names just like Ivan and Joan but 2 months earlier than 1997...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If we base the current 1.9C reading on the climo used on 1997, it would lead us perhaps to 2.0C-2.4C or nearer right now

[Hammy]

With the similarities to 1997 and there still being months left for this to peak, could we end up with a near record (if not record-breaking) Nino before all is said and done?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

With the similarities to 1997 and there still being months left for this to peak, could we end up with a near record (if not record-breaking) Nino before all is said and done?

It's obvious. We're having currently a 1.9C reading

[AJC3]

Thanks. So it looks like the two prior monthly SSTA data that I took from here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... .ascii.txt

...for May and June are fine.

It's just the number I ball parked for July (+1.58C) was too high, since the weeklies are taken from the older dataset. In order to bring the MJJ tercile down from what I arrived at (+1.14C) to the official value +1.02C seen at:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/oni.data

...then the actual monthly 3.4 SSTA for July would have had to be somewhere around +1.22C instead of +1.58C. +0.36C is a pretty big difference between datasets.

[+1.02C*3 - (+0.97C + 0.87C)] = +1.22C

The different datasets have had some profound restructuring of some ENSO events notably the El Nino's. 2009 during it's time would've been tracked as a strong Nino then changed borderline and now solidly moderate similar to 2002. Eliminates 1957-58, 1968-69, and 2014-15 as unbroken multi-year events.

Just a quick followup...I found the monthlies based off of the older OISST.v2 data, and it was +1.60C for JUL, pretty close (+0.2C) to that rough estimate. The actual JUL monthly from v4 was +1.21C, which was almost (-0.1C) spot on as well. I sure as heck hope that after this event winds down, from here on out CPC will switch to "v4-based" weeklies so that we down have both apples and orange being thrown at us. If it's confusing for us mets in the field, just think how bad it must be for the rest of you.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Just a question could the cold water up-welling from the recent and the now 'modeled' twin typhoons in the WPac effectively lead to colder surface pools moving east and much weaker kelvin waves and westerly winds and a brake down in this elino down the track.

Westerly wind bursts help the El Niño and warm waters from the WPac upwell and move east propagating then causes the El Niño even to further strengthen and intensify

[Ntxw]

Just a question could the cold water up-welling from the recent and the now 'modeled' twin typhoons in the WPac effectively lead to colder surface pools moving east and much weaker kelvin waves and westerly winds and a brake down in this elino down the track.

Good question, that won't likely happen. Actual anomalies are not the same as actual SST's. While anomalies are cool in parts of the western basin, the actual SST's are quite warm and if pushed into the eastern basin they would yield a warmer anomaly. But it doesn't happen that way as westerlies are a warming wind.

Short term fluctuations won't terminate or effect the Nino too much as we've seen easterly bursts in June essentially do nothing as the feedback from El Nino is too strong. What can happen down the road spring of 2016 is the gradual decay of the same process, too much of a good thing. I pulled up Dean_175's post on it because it was well explained by him..

Ntxw, if the El Nino strengthens to unprecedented levels, what are the chances it continues until next summer?

Its still possible that a strong El Nino would persist to the start of meteorological summer June 1- but not much longer after that. The 1982 El Nino was still around June of the next year. 1997 on the other hand, decayed rapidly before June.

El Nino events tend to decay late winter and revert to neutral or La Nina by summer. El Nino events grow by positive feedback processes where the wind stress over the ocean adjust to SST anomalies, but negative feedback processes are also occurring. The wind stress curl produces Sverdrup transport of water away from the equator (lowering SSH and the mean thermocline depth) and generates ocean Rossby waves. Rossby waves travel to the west Pacific boundary and reflect as an upwelling KW response several months later.

During winter, the maximum "total SSTs" in the central Pacific move south of the equator as part of the natural seasonal cycle. The anomalous deep convection during El Nino follows this shift of SSTs, causing the westerly wind stress anomalies to also move south of the equator. This cuts off the equatorial wind stress anomalies - and the anomalous tilt of the thermocline starts to diminish. With the positive feedbacks diminished, the negative feedbacks can dominate and terminate the El Nino.

Strong El Nino events actually have an extra push towards La Nina: during strong events - warm total SSTs actually penetrate into the east Pacific- allowing deep convection and westerly wind anomalies to occur there. In May, when total SSTs seasonally start to diminish there, the water becomes too cool to support deep convection and strong easterlies abruptly return. Strong Ninos are almost invariably followed by La Nina- which typically has started to develop during summer.

[Ntxw]

With the similarities to 1997 and there still being months left for this to peak, could we end up with a near record (if not record-breaking) Nino before all is said and done?

It is possible, that is what the dynamical models have been predicting as a consensus. Once we get past the 2C reading that's always the question that comes up.

Just a quick followup...I found the monthlies based off of the older OISST.v2 data, and it was +1.60C for JUL, pretty close (+0.2C) to that rough estimate. The actual JUL monthly from v4 was +1.21C, which was almost (-0.1C) spot on as well. I sure as heck hope that after this event winds down, from here on out CPC will switch to "v4-based" weeklies so that we down have both apples and orange being thrown at us. If it's confusing for us mets in the field, just think how bad it must be for the rest of you.

Thanks! I agree I hope the the CPC groups it all together with one dataset makes life easier. Though it's not too difficult as long as you match it to the same dataset v2 vs v2, v4 vs v4 etc

[cycloneye]

The August CPC update continues with the 90% of El Nino thru winter and around 85% thru the 2016 spring.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[WeatherEmperor]

The August CPC update continues with the 90% of El Nino thru winter and around 85% thru the 2016 spring.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

Would it be possible this El Nino will extend into the 2016 atlantic hurricane season? How crazy would that be

[LarryWx]

The August CPC update continues with the 90% of El Nino thru winter and around 85% thru the 2016 spring.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

Would it be possible this El Nino will extend into the 2016 atlantic hurricane season? How crazy would that be

That would essentially mean a triple El Niño, which would certainly be a rarity though not be unprecedented per records. There was one triple Niño covering the winters of 1939-40, 1940-1, and 1941-2. In contrast, there have been 13 double Nino's since 1876 excluding the current one. Based on this, alone, I'd say the odds are probably no higher than about 10% and could be more like 5%. So, this suggests that the odds of El Niño in 2016-7 are well below the longterm chance for any one season of a little over 30% or about 1 in 3 as I count 47 Niño seasons over the last 145 years. So, whereas a first year Niño doesn't reduce the chance of a Niño the following year vs overall climo of about 1 in 3, a double Niño does significantly reduce the chance of a Nino the following year vs overall climo of 1 in 3.

Edit:
So if Vegas were now offering wagers on El Niño for 2016-7 based on the longterm chance of 1 in 3, I'd be betting a lot of money against it though not the ranch just in case a very rare triple Niño decides to show. Right after a double Niño is about the best time to bet against El Niño.

[cycloneye]

CPC blog is very interesting as always they discuss in depth about El Nino.They are very confident about El Nino being strong.

We have a relatively confident forecast for a strong event, and this provides long-range forecasters with information they can use to develop their seasonal forecasts. So, although there are no guarantees, the odds nonetheless really are tilted in specific directions in various parts of the U.S. as far as winter climate is concerned. A significant El Nino like this one provides an uncommon opportunity for people to anticipate the climate tendency well in advance of the main impact season.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... alidocious

[Hurricaneman]

soi index

90 day -12.11
30 day -18.48
aug 13th -19.54

[Blown Away]

The atmosphere has been trying to purge this El Nino for a few years and it's finally here in a big way. IMO, this giant El Nino purge will get us back to somewhat normal conditions in the Atlantic for hurricanes come 2016... Just another cycle...

[Ntxw]

July PDO rose from June to +1.84

[cycloneye]

Here is the data of the July PDO.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[HURRICANELONNY]

Here's a little tidbit on AOL homepage:

http://www.aol.com/article/2015/08/14/s ... -185589048