ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Hammy]

Why does tropical tidbit have 3.4 nino at 1.9 and cpc 2.2.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

I believe CPC is weekly average and TT is daily.

[Ntxw]

Why does tropical tidbit have 3.4 nino at 1.9 and cpc 2.2.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

I believe CPC is weekly average and TT is daily.

Levi Cowan's site uses CDAS based on CFS-R climatology yet another data different than the weeklies OISSTv2 which comprises of satellite, ships, buoys, and gaps are filled by interpolating. The official ONI uses ERSSTv4. None are exactly alike, as mentioned you will have a headache trying to compare between the other. It's best to compare only to the same dataset.

[LarryWx]

We've had 50 straight days of a -SOI. That's the longest -SOI streak by a good margin since the 1997-8 super-Nino.

make that 52

It looks like the streak ended at an impressive 55:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... soivalues/

Let's see if we get a longer streak later. The longest streak of 1997-8 was much later than this.

[cycloneye]

ONI for JJA up to +1.22.

[Dean_175]

Would have thought it would be higher. Still impressive though. Just goes to show how much of a difference there is between datasets - as it would have been 1.6C+ easily if ONI was calculated using the same data set as the weeklies (OISST )- we had a solid run at 2.0C+ in the weeklies in August and strong values in July too.

[Ntxw]

Yeah ERSSTv4 is the most conservative of the data sets I have seen for it. All other's are higher. It's still impressive, I thought it would've followed 97 given the weeklies were.

Another index came out which is the MEI. A whopping 2.367

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

"Compared to last month, the updated (July-August) MEI has increased significantly by 0.39 standard deviations to +2.37, or the 2nd highest ranking, surpassed only in 1997 at this time of year. This new peak value of the current event ranks third highest overall at any time of year since 1950, with 1982-83 and 1997-98 remaining in a 'Super El Niño' club of their own (for now), with peak values around +3 standard deviations.."

[Dean_175]

Do you think that it will mostly catch up eventually?

[Ntxw]

Do you think that it will mostly catch up eventually?

ERSSTv4? or the MEI?

[Dean_175]

Do you think that it will mostly catch up eventually?

ERSSTv4? or the MEI?

The ERSSTv4

[Ntxw]

The ERSSTv4

Sure hope it will to better reflect the other data sets, but really not sure what to expect from it. I've had some beef with ERSSTv4 since it was revised but I'm not against the method. I don't think there's anything wrong with using satellite input as well as everything else also which it doesn't use.

[Dean_175]

Yeah , all indicators seem pretty strong except for the ERSSTv4 temps.

August ESOI comes in at -2.2 : just below the strongest August value(since 1950) of -2.3 in 1997.

Thermocline looks to be approaching horizontal.




In Nino3.4 monthly (August 2015)
OISSTv2 has 2.06C
ERSSTv4 has 1.49C

In August 1997 we had:
OISSTv2 at 2.02C
ERSSTv4 at 1.74C

[Ntxw]

Impressive thermocline slope, don't see that everyday.

I think it may hold steady or even lower a little this week. Total guess though, it's been warming at a fairly decent clip since June. You'd figure it would slow down at some point until peak around Oct-Nov-Dec. Could be wrong it may just rise a little.

Regardless the buoys are now showing some 3C anomalies encroaching the far eastern Nino 3.4 region

[gigabite]

This is a plot of el Nino events on the graph of the latitude of the New Moon at aphelion. There is a 100% chance that an el Nino event occurs at the bottom of the range. By this chart of coincidence there is a 0% chance of a la Nina in 2016, a 70% chance of a la Nina in 2017 or a 10% chance of a el Nino in 2017. ( for complaints or comments message me on this board )
_________________

This is not a forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the my opinion, and not backed by any meteorological data. This is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to CPC products.

[Ntxw]

Holiday so no CPC update today. However OISSTv2 shows this week will be 2.1C which is a slight nudge down. We should hover around where we are for a little while until next month when peak of this event will likely take place.

Buoys shows 2C widespread across Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 with 3C or greater showing up around 120W

[LarryWx]

I see that there is now a tiny area of +3.5+ C showing up near 110 W on the TAO buoy graph. That's quite a bit warmer than just a few days ago, when everything was cooler than +3.0 C. So, fwiw these graphs are suggesting that the warmest anomalies there have warmed more than 0.5 C quickly. Let's see how much more warming will show there in the days to come.

[Dean_175]

We should hover around where we are for a little while until next month when peak of this event will likely take place.

What makes you think that the peak will likely be in October - as opposed to November- January?

[Ntxw]

What makes you think that the peak will likely be in October - as opposed to November- January?

I do think the average trimonthly will peak be OND or NDJ. As far as strongest weekly readings I'm leaning towards middle to late October to early November and then persist albeit a little lower through early January. That's pretty much what the CFSv2 has.

[Ntxw]

I was looking at previous ENSO events and anomalies, I don't think this event is a late bloomer in events like 1982, 1991, and 2009. Those events looked modest until late in the fall when they went to town and peaked a bit later. This year has been gradual, consistent and predictable warming like in 1972 and 1997.

[Dean_175]

August average wind vector anomaly at 850mb:

[Dean_175]

I was looking at previous ENSO events and anomalies, I don't think this event is a late bloomer in events like 1982, 1991, and 2009. Those events looked modest until late in the fall when they went to town and peaked a bit later. This year has been gradual, consistent and predictable warming like in 1972 and 1997.

Yeah I think you are right. CFS doesn't seem to show that much strengthening from now on. CFS now shows the subsurface anomalies to gradually diminish through the year, as opposed to another major pulse of warm water in the fall. If this holds true, should limit strengthening - and the CFS has decreased its forecast of nino3.4.

I'd expect a peak ONI of around 1.8-2.1C.