2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Hurricaneman]

The NAO is forecast by models to go positive so anything near the Bahamas would most certainly be a threat to the Southeastern US to the GOM so the setup is something that bears watching and don’t be surprised if god forbid the Bahamas get hit again

[AxaltaRacing24]

Nobody look at the newest GFS. It's cruel.

[cjrciadt]

Nobody look at the newest GFS. It's cruel.

It is indeed

[AtlanticWind]

Nobody look at the newest GFS. It's cruel.

It is indeed

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 400&fh=384
I am glad it's 384 hours out , won't happen, please!

[AtlanticWind]

The horrible thing was the GFS stalled it the exact same place

[AtlanticWind]

They really changed the CMC ,it used to form everything
Now it forms nothing.

[Hammy]

GEM is playing the convective feedback game by the looks of it, while Euro has gone back into season cancel mode. Honestly I can't remember seeing the Euro this inconsistent from run to run before.

[DelrayDude]

The NAO is forecast by models to go positive so anything near the Bahamas would most certainly be a threat to the Southeastern US to the GOM so the setup is something that bears watching and don’t be surprised if god forbid the Bahamas get hit again

How long is it expected to stay positive?

[Emmett_Brown]

Models not developing much in recent runs. Models haven't been showing genesis of systems very well, and they obviously were playing catch up on Dorian's development and intensity, so I don't think they will be as useful until a storm actually forms.

[CyclonicFury]

The ECMWF has been poor with genesis this year, with some phantoms as well as missing storms entirely. It didn't even to acknowledge the wave that became Dorian until about 24 hours prior to genesis. It was also way too strong with Erin, developing it into a strong hurricane.

[WeatherEmperor]

The NAO is forecast by models to go positive so anything near the Bahamas would most certainly be a threat to the Southeastern US to the GOM so the setup is something that bears watching and don’t be surprised if god forbid the Bahamas get hit again

How long is it expected to stay positive?

If I am reading the forecast correctly it should be positive for the next 10 days or so




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[TheStormExpert]

The ECMWF has been poor with genesis this year, with some phantoms as well as missing storms entirely. It didn't even to acknowledge the wave that became Dorian until about 24 hours prior to genesis. It was also way too strong with Erin, developing it into a strong hurricane.

The Euro has been bad with tropical cyclone genesis in the tropics, not so much in the subtropics though.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hard for me to accept the latest ECMWF/GFS guidance showing no TC development through mid-September.

[SFLcane]

Hard for me to accept the latest ECMWF/GFS guidance showing no TC development through mid-September.

1-Suppressed Kelvin wave
2-Lots of shear

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hard for me to accept the latest ECMWF/GFS guidance showing no TC development through mid-September.

1-Suppressed Kelvin wave
2-Lots of shear

Climatology can and almost always does overcome that in September.

[Emmett_Brown]

Yeah, there will definitely be storms this month. The shear looks kind of average to me. Keep your tracking charts handy. The models will show development after something develops...

[Kingarabian]

Remember a 00z GFS run can show nothing for the next 16 days, and then a 06z GFS run can show development occurring within 4-5 days.

[Ritzcraker]

Hard for me to accept the latest ECMWF/GFS guidance showing no TC development through mid-September.

1-Suppressed Kelvin wave
2-Lots of shear

EC completely dropped the ball for development the past few weeks. Wasn’t even showing Dorian as a blip 2-3 weeks ago. Not buying the shear and suppressed kelvin wave this time. Dorian taught us all a lesson about that.

[AtlanticWind]

Remember a 00z GFS run can show nothing for the next 16 days, and then a 06z GFS run can show development occurring within 4-5 days.

Or less.....
This time of year things can change pretty quickly

[USTropics]

That the models don't show immediate development with these next few AEWs actually concerns me more, typically early development leads to a quicker gain in latitude (e.g. Gabrielle). It means these waves will travel further west before potentially finding a more suitable environment to develop. One thing is for sure, the WAM is now at a dangerous latitude for some waves to track into the Caribbean, with a ton of ammunition coming off the coast in the next few weeks: